拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）说，比特币（BTC）价格与全球流动性增长直接相关。

Raoul Pal的说法，比特币的价格紧密跟踪了全球流动性的增长，流动性最多可以解释其价格变动的90％。

Bitcoin's price is notoriously sensitive to global liquidity, some analysts say it nearly perfectly tracks it with a lag of about three months. This relationship is fueling the current bullish narrative as BTC price soars back above $100,000. But how long can this trend last?

一些分析人士说，比特币的价格对全球流动性敏感，它几乎可以完美地跟踪它，大约三个月。随着BTC价格飙升至100,000美元以上，这种关系正在推动目前的看涨叙述。但是这个趋势可以持续多长时间？

According to Raoul Pal, the founder of Global Macro Investor, global liquidity is closely tied to the increase in debt levels in many countries. In a recent speech, later recapped by Paul Guerra, Pal highlighted this connection, asserting that despite looming concerns—recession risks, geopolitical tensions, and other global stressors—liquidity is the dominant force behind asset price action.

据全球宏观投资者的创始人拉尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）称，全球流动性与许多国家的债务水平的提高密切相关。在后来由保罗·瓜拉（Paul Guerra）回顾的最近演讲中，帕尔强调了这一联系，他断言，尽管有迫在眉睫的担忧（不必要的风险，地缘政治紧张局势和其他全球压力源），但流动性是资产价格行动背后的主要力量。

As he highlighted, we’re now in the 11th year of the bull market, an anomaly in itself, with risky assets like the Nasdaq and Bitcoin continuing to rise despite the narrative of a pending market crash. According to Pal, this resilience can be attributed to an "unyielding tide of global liquidity."

正如他所强调的那样，我们现在处于牛市的第11年，本身是一种反常现象，尽管纳斯达克和比特币等风险的资产仍在继续上升，尽管叙述了未决的市场崩溃。根据PAL的说法，这种韧性可以归因于“全球流动性的浪潮”。

According to his calculations, global M2 liquidity, the broadest measure of the money supply, explains up to 90% of Bitcoin's price movements and as much as 97% of the Nasdaq's performance when considering a 12-week lag.

根据他的计算，全球M2流动性是对货币供应的最广泛衡量标准，它解释了比特币价格变动的90％，在考虑为期12周的滞后时，纳斯达克的绩效占97％。

A chart comparing global M2 (with a 12-week lead) and Bitcoin's price shows an almost uncanny alignment, especially over the past two years. The correlation is particularly striking over the shorter time frame, with periods of divergence often followed by convergence later in the cycle.

比较全球M2（领先12周）和比特币价格的图表几乎表现出了几乎不可思议的一致性，尤其是在过去两年中。相关性在较短的时间范围内特别引人注目，差异周期通常在周期后期收敛。

Pal also frames the issue in personal finance terms. He says there's an 11% "hidden tax" on all of us, composed of 8% currency debasement and 3% global inflation. According to Pal, this tax ultimately flows to governments and central banks, impacting everyone through changes in the purchasing power of our money.

PAL还以个人理财方式将问题构成。他说，我们所有人都有11％的“隐藏税”，包括8％的货币贬值和3％的全球通货膨胀。根据PAL的说法，这项税收最终会流向政府和中央银行，通过改变我们资金的购买力来影响所有人。

In the long term, this new tax is part of a broader trend of global liquidity expansion, which began in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis with a focus on U.S. dollar liquidity. Over the past 15 years, we've seen a nearly linear increase in global M2, with a slight uptick in 2018 due to the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) actions.

从长远来看，这项新税是全球流动性扩展趋势的一部分，该税率始于2008年的金融危机，重点是美元流动性。在过去的15年中，由于中国人民银行（PBOC）的行动，我们看到全球M2的线性增长几乎是线性的，2018年略有上升。

This offers a high-level view of global liquidity and suggests its long-term expansion is structural. However, this growth isn't linear. Over shorter time frames, it fluctuates based on specific drivers.

这提供了全球流动性的高级视野，并表明其长期扩张是结构性的。但是，这种增长不是线性的。在较短的时间范围内，它会根据特定的驱动程序波动。

As reported by Capital Economics, in the short term, three main factors influence global liquidity: the U.S. Federal Reserve, the PBoC, and banks lending through collateral markets.

根据资本经济学的报道，在短期内，三个主要因素影响了全球流动性：美国美联储，PBOC和银行通过抵押市场贷款。

On the bright side, the weak global economy and a softening dollar usually bode well for liquidity. But rising bond volatility, a key indicator of collateral scarcity and tightening credit conditions, is choking lending and ultimately undermines liquidity.

从好的一面来看，全球经济疲软和美元软化通常是很好的流动性。但是，债券波动率上升，这是附带稀缺性和收紧信贷条件的关键指标，正在扼杀贷款并最终破坏流动性。

Together with the strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, this dynamic is crucial for understanding the ebb and flow of global liquidity.

加上对美国国库债券的强劲需求，这种动态对于理解全球流动性的潮起潮落至关重要。

According to Michael Howell, author of "Capital Wars," these two forces are now converging, setting the stage for a potential turning point in the cycle.

据《资本战争》的作者迈克尔·豪威尔（Michael Howell）说，这两支部队现在正在融合，为周期中的潜在转折点奠定了基础。

As Howell explains, global liquidity moves in roughly five-year cycles, with each cycle marked by a specific driver and a unique time frame. The current cycle, which began with the PBoC injecting liquidity into the system in response to the COVID-19 crisis, is nearing its peak.

正如豪威尔（Howell）所解释的那样，全球流动性大约五年的周期移动，每个周期都以特定的驱动程序和独特的时间范围标记。当前的周期始于PBOC响应于COVID-19危机的PBOC向系统注入流动性，即将接近其峰值。

Howell projects this cycle to mature by mid-2026, reaching an index level of around 70 (below the post-COVID index of 90). This would mark a turning point, with a subsequent downturn being a likely outcome.

豪厄尔（Howell）在2026年中期将这个周期投射到成熟，达到70个索引水平（低于90后旋转指数）。这将标志着一个转折点，随后的下滑可能是一个可能的结果。

This pessimistic outlook is partly due to the rapid pace of global liquidity expansion, which is occurring at an unprecedented rate. In the past, such rapid increases in liquidity were usually followed by periods of contraction, as seen in the 1970s and 1980s.

这种悲观的前景部分是由于全球流动性的迅速增长，这是以前所未有的速度发生的。过去，流动性的迅速增加通常是在1970年代和1980年代所见的收缩期。

However, the current cycle is unfolding against the backdrop of a persistently weak global economy, which is likely to prompt further easing by central banks.

但是，目前的周期在持续薄弱的全球经济的背景下展开，这很可能会促使中央银行进一步缓解。

The Fed, in particular, faces a difficult choice: continue fighting inflation or pivot to support an increasingly fragile financial system. At its May 7 meeting, rates were held steady, but the pressure on Chair Jerome Powell is mounting, especially from US President Donald Trump, who urged the Fed to cut rates to zero to help the economy.

特别是，美联储面临着一个困难的选择：继续与通货膨胀或枢纽作斗争以支持日益脆弱的金融体系。在5月7日的会议上，利率保持稳定，但杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）主席的压力越来越大，尤其是来自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump），后者敦促美联储将利率降低到零以帮助经济。

At the same time, economic uncertainty is driving up U.S. Treasury yields and fueling bond market volatility, both indicators of collateral scarcity and tightening credit conditions. Over time, these pressures are likely to become headwinds for liquidity expansion.

同时，经济不确定性正在推动美国国库的收益率，并加剧了债券市场的波动，这既是附带稀缺的指标又增强了信贷条件。随着时间的流逝，这些压力可能会成为流动性扩展的逆风。

Moreover, a looming recession is expected to weaken investor risk appetite, further draining liquidity from the system. This pessimistic outlook stands in stark contrast to the bullish view of market analyst Tom DeMark, who predicts

此外，预计迫在眉睫的经济衰退会削弱投资者的风险食欲，从而进一步消耗系统的流动性。这种悲观的前景与市场分析师汤姆·德马克（Tom DeMark）看来的看法形成鲜明对比，后者预测