比特幣（BTC）市場現在比12月至1月更堅固，這表明持續增長的可能性更高

本文探討了比特幣市場結構和參與者的行為，揭示了現在的市場比12月至1月更堅固

However, according to the following six charts, the bitcoin market now appears sturdier than in December-January, suggesting a higher probability of a continued move higher.

但是，根據以下六個圖表，比特幣市場現在比12月至1月更堅固，這表明持續移動更高的可能性更高。

Financial conditions: (DXY, 10y, 30y yields vs BTC)

財務狀況：（ DXY，10Y，30y產生與BTC）

Financial conditions refer to various economic variables, including interest rates, inflation, credit availability, and market liquidity. These are influenced by the benchmark government bond yield, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the dollar exchange rate and other factors.

財務狀況是指各種經濟變量，包括利率，通貨膨脹，信貸可用性和市場流動性。這些受到基準政府債券收益率，美國10年財政收益，美元匯率和其他因素的影響。

Tighter financial conditions disincentivize risk-taking in financial markets and the economy, while easier conditions have the opposite effect.

更嚴格的財務狀況不利於金融市場和經濟中的冒險，同時更容易的條件會產生相反的影響。

As of writing, financial conditions, represented by the 10-year yield and the dollar index, appear much easier than in January, favoring a sustained move higher in BTC.

截至撰寫本文時，以10年收益率和美元指數為代表的財務狀況似乎比一月份容易得多，而BTC的持續持續行動則更高。

At press time, the dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against major currencies, stood at 99.60, down 9% from highs above 109.00 in January. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.52%, down 30 basis points from the high of 4.8% in January.

發稿時，衡量綠色對主要貨幣的價值的美元指數為99.60，比一月份高於109.00的高點下降了9％。美國10年財政部的收益率為4.52％，比一月份的高度4.8％下降了30個基點。

The 30-year yield has risen above 5%, revisiting levels seen in January, but is largely seen as positive for bitcoin and gold.

30年的收益率上升到5％以上，重新審視了一月份的水平，但在很大程度上被視為比特幣和黃金的陽性。

More dry powder

更多乾粉

The combined market capitalization of the top two USD-pegged stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has reached a record high of $151 billion. That's nearly 9% higher than the average $139 billion in December-January, according to data source TradingView.

前兩個USD PEGGEGECOINS，USDT和USDC的總市值已達到創紀錄的1510億美元。根據數據源交易，這比12月至1月的平均1,390億美元高9％。

In other words, a greater amount of dry powder is now available for potential investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

換句話說，現在可以使用更多的干粉用於對比特幣和其他加密貨幣的潛在投資。

Bold directional bets

大膽的定向下注

BTC's run higher from early April lows near $75,000 is characterized by institutions predominantly taking bullish directional bets rather than arbitrage bets.

BTC從4月初的低點開始越來越高75,000美元，其特徵是機構主要採用看漲的定向下注，而不是套利下注。

That's evident by the booming inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the still subdued open interest in the CME BTC futures.

這很明顯，湧入美國上市的比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）以及在CME BTC期貨中仍然蒙蔽的開放興趣。

According to data source Velo, the notional open interest in the CME bitcoin futures has jumped to $17 billion, the highest since Feb. 20. Still, it remains well below the December high of $22.79 billion.

根據數據源Velo的數據，CME比特幣期貨的名義開放興趣已躍升至2月20日以來最高的170億美元。仍然，它遠低於12月的227.9億美元。

On the contrary, the cumulative inflows into the 11 spot ETFs now stand at a record $42.7 billion versus $39.8 billion in January, according to data source Farside Investors.

相反，根據數據源Farside Investors的數據，相反，累計流入11個ETF的ETF現在達到了創紀錄的427億美元，而1月份的398億美元則為創紀錄的398億美元。

No signs of speculative fervour

沒有投機性熱情的跡象

Historically, interim and major bitcoin tops, including the December-January one, have been characterized by speculative fervour in the broader market, leading to a sharp rise in market valuations for non-serious tokens such as DOGE and SHIB.

從歷史上看，包括12月至1月1日在內的臨時和主要比特幣上衣的特徵是在更廣闊的市場中投機性熱情，從而導致諸如Doge和Shib之類的非現實代幣的市場估值急劇上升。

There are no such signs now, with the combined market cap of DOGE and SHIB well below their January highs.

現在沒有這樣的跡象，總門帽的聯合市值和shib遠低於他們一月份的高點。

No signs of overheating

沒有過熱的跡象

The bitcoin perpetual futures market shows demand for bullish leveraged bets, understandably so, considering BTC is trading near record highs.

比特幣永久期貨市場顯示出對看漲槓桿賭注的需求，因此，考慮到BTC的交易接近創紀錄的高點。

However, the overall positioning remains light, with no signs of excess leverage build-up or bullish overheating, as evidenced by funding rates hovering well below highs seen in December.

但是，整體定位仍然是光線的，沒有過多的槓桿積聚或看漲過熱的跡象，這證明了資金速率徘徊在12月所看到的高點。

The chart shows funding rates, which refer to the cost of holding perpetual futures bets. The positive figure indicates a bias for longs and willingness among the bulls to pay shorts to keep their positions open. It's a sign of bullish market sentiment.

該圖顯示了資金率，這是指持有永久未來下注的成本。積極的數字表明，公牛隊在持久的渴望和意願上有偏見，以保持短褲以保持其位置開放。這是看漲市場情緒的標誌。

Implied volatility suggests calm

暗示波動表明平靜

The bitcoin market appears much calmer this time, with Deribit's DVOL index, measuring the 30-day expected or implied volatility, significantly lower than levels observed in December-January and March 2024 price tops.

這次，比特幣市場出現了很多鎮定，並帶有deribit的DVOL指數，衡量了30天的預期或暗示波動性，大大低於2024年12月至1月和3月3日的價格上漲的水平。

The low IV suggests traders are not pricing in the extreme price swings or uncertainty that typically exists in an overheated market, indicating a more measured and potentially more sustainable uptrend.

低IV表明，交易者並不是在過熱市場中通常存在的極端價格波動或不確定性的定價，這表明更具可持續性和更可持續性的上升趨勢。