比特币（BTC）市场现在比12月至1月更坚固，这表明持续增长的可能性更高

本文探讨了比特币市场结构和参与者的行为，揭示了现在的市场比12月至1月更坚固

However, according to the following six charts, the bitcoin market now appears sturdier than in December-January, suggesting a higher probability of a continued move higher.

但是，根据以下六个图表，比特币市场现在比12月至1月更坚固，这表明持续移动更高的可能性更高。

Financial conditions: (DXY, 10y, 30y yields vs BTC)

财务状况：（ DXY，10Y，30y产生与BTC）

Financial conditions refer to various economic variables, including interest rates, inflation, credit availability, and market liquidity. These are influenced by the benchmark government bond yield, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the dollar exchange rate and other factors.

财务状况是指各种经济变量，包括利率，通货膨胀，信贷可用性和市场流动性。这些受到基准政府债券收益率，美国10年财政收益，美元汇率和其他因素的影响。

Tighter financial conditions disincentivize risk-taking in financial markets and the economy, while easier conditions have the opposite effect.

更严格的财务状况不利于金融市场和经济中的冒险，同时更容易的条件会产生相反的影响。

As of writing, financial conditions, represented by the 10-year yield and the dollar index, appear much easier than in January, favoring a sustained move higher in BTC.

截至撰写本文时，以10年收益率和美元指数为代表的财务状况似乎比一月份容易得多，而BTC的持续持续行动则更高。

At press time, the dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against major currencies, stood at 99.60, down 9% from highs above 109.00 in January. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.52%, down 30 basis points from the high of 4.8% in January.

发稿时，衡量绿色对主要货币的价值的美元指数为99.60，比一月份高于109.00的高点下降了9％。美国10年财政部的收益率为4.52％，比一月份的高度4.8％下降了30个基点。

The 30-year yield has risen above 5%, revisiting levels seen in January, but is largely seen as positive for bitcoin and gold.

30年的收益率上升到5％以上，重新审视了一月份的水平，但在很大程度上被视为比特币和黄金的阳性。

More dry powder

更多干粉

The combined market capitalization of the top two USD-pegged stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has reached a record high of $151 billion. That's nearly 9% higher than the average $139 billion in December-January, according to data source TradingView.

前两个USD PEGGEGECOINS，USDT和USDC的总市值已达到创纪录的1510亿美元。根据数据源交易，这比12月至1月的平均1,390亿美元高9％。

In other words, a greater amount of dry powder is now available for potential investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

换句话说，现在可以使用更多的干粉用于对比特币和其他加密货币的潜在投资。

Bold directional bets

大胆的定向下注

BTC's run higher from early April lows near $75,000 is characterized by institutions predominantly taking bullish directional bets rather than arbitrage bets.

BTC从4月初的低点开始越来越高75,000美元，其特征是机构主要采用看涨的定向下注，而不是套利下注。

That's evident by the booming inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the still subdued open interest in the CME BTC futures.

这很明显，涌入美国上市的比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）以及在CME BTC期货中仍然蒙蔽的开放兴趣。

According to data source Velo, the notional open interest in the CME bitcoin futures has jumped to $17 billion, the highest since Feb. 20. Still, it remains well below the December high of $22.79 billion.

根据数据源Velo的数据，CME比特币期货的名义开放兴趣已跃升至2月20日以来最高的170亿美元。仍然，它远低于12月的227.9亿美元。

On the contrary, the cumulative inflows into the 11 spot ETFs now stand at a record $42.7 billion versus $39.8 billion in January, according to data source Farside Investors.

相反，根据数据源Farside Investors的数据，相反，累计流入11个ETF的ETF现在达到了创纪录的427亿美元，而1月份的398亿美元则为创纪录的398亿美元。

No signs of speculative fervour

没有投机性热情的迹象

Historically, interim and major bitcoin tops, including the December-January one, have been characterized by speculative fervour in the broader market, leading to a sharp rise in market valuations for non-serious tokens such as DOGE and SHIB.

从历史上看，包括12月至1月1日在内的临时和主要比特币上衣的特征是在更广阔的市场中投机性热情，从而导致诸如Doge和Shib之类的非现实代币的市场估值急剧上升。

There are no such signs now, with the combined market cap of DOGE and SHIB well below their January highs.

现在没有这样的迹象，总门帽的联合市值和shib远低于他们一月份的高点。

No signs of overheating

没有过热的迹象

The bitcoin perpetual futures market shows demand for bullish leveraged bets, understandably so, considering BTC is trading near record highs.

比特币永久期货市场显示出对看涨杠杆赌注的需求，因此，考虑到BTC的交易接近创纪录的高点。

However, the overall positioning remains light, with no signs of excess leverage build-up or bullish overheating, as evidenced by funding rates hovering well below highs seen in December.

但是，整体定位仍然是光线的，没有过多的杠杆积聚或看涨过热的迹象，这证明了资金速率徘徊在12月所看到的高点。

The chart shows funding rates, which refer to the cost of holding perpetual futures bets. The positive figure indicates a bias for longs and willingness among the bulls to pay shorts to keep their positions open. It's a sign of bullish market sentiment.

该图显示了资金率，这是指持有永久未来下注的成本。积极的数字表明，公牛队在持久的渴望和意愿上有偏见，以保持短裤以保持其位置开放。这是看涨市场情绪的标志。

Implied volatility suggests calm

暗示波动表明平静

The bitcoin market appears much calmer this time, with Deribit's DVOL index, measuring the 30-day expected or implied volatility, significantly lower than levels observed in December-January and March 2024 price tops.

这次，比特币市场出现了很多镇定，并带有deribit的DVOL指数，衡量了30天的预期或暗示波动性，大大低于2024年12月至1月和3月3日的价格上涨的水平。

The low IV suggests traders are not pricing in the extreme price swings or uncertainty that typically exists in an overheated market, indicating a more measured and potentially more sustainable uptrend.

低IV表明，交易者并不是在过热市场中通常存在的极端价格波动或不确定性的定价，这表明更具可持续性和更可持续性的上升趋势。