比特幣（BTC 3.01％）不需要重新發明到100萬美元

當它的價格接近每枚硬幣95,000美元時，它只需要繼續變得稀缺。

Bitcoin (BTC 3.01%) doesn't need to reinvent itself to get to $1 million, it just needs to continue getting scarcer than it is today, when its price is near $95,000 per coin. If investors and institutions keep showing up with new capital while new supply continues to be harder to come by, its price is more likely to go up than it is to go down over the long term. At least, that's the case being made by a growing number of people in the crypto industry who think the $1 million milestone is closer than most expect.

比特幣（BTC 3.01％）不需要重塑自己以達到100萬美元，它只需要繼續變得稀缺，而當時其價格接近每枚硬幣95,000美元。如果投資者和機構不斷出現新的資本，而新供應量仍更難獲得，那麼它的價格比從長遠來看的可能性更大。至少，加密貨幣行業中越來越多的人認為這100萬美元的里程碑比大多數人預期的要近。

On May 1, another high-profile prediction was made, this time by Bitwise Asset Management's head of European research, Andre Dragosch, who anticipates Bitcoin reaching that target by 2029. But what exactly are Dragosch and others seeing that has them targeting seven figures for the coin's price in the next few years?

5月1日，這次是歐洲研究負責人安德烈·德拉格斯（Andre Dragosch）的另一個引人注目的預測，他預計比特幣到2029年達到了該目標。但是，德拉格斯（Dragosch）和其他人看到他們的目標是在未來幾年中以七個數字為目標的七個數字？

Source: Getty Images.

資料來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Supply is contracting faster than it seems

供應的收縮速度比看起來更快

Per Bitcoin's protocol, there can only ever be 21 million coins mined. As of now, about 94% of the possible supply has already been mined. After the protocol's most recent halving in April 2024, the daily quantity of new supply being created is just 450 bitcoins.

根據比特幣的協議，只能開採2100萬枚硬幣。截至目前，已經開采了約94％的可能的供應。在該協議最近在2024年4月減半之後，每天創建的新供應數量僅為450個比特幣。

But that figure overstates the supply that's actually available for purchasing. About 20% of all Bitcoin is thought to be lost, forgotten, or otherwise inaccessible due to people losing their cryptowallet credentials. Meanwhile, the market includes ongoing purchasing of the coin by corporate treasuries, asset managers sponsoring exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and perhaps soon governments. After all that, the amount of Bitcoin that could reasonably be bought or sold on the open market dwindles quickly, and no large holders have publicly committed to exiting their positions anytime soon.

但是，這個數字誇大了實際可供購買的供應。由於人們失去了加密貨幣資格，大約有20％的比特幣被認為是丟失，遺忘或以其他方式無法訪問。同時，該市場包括公司國庫，資產管理人員贊助交易所交易資金（ETF）以及可能很快政府的資產管理人員的持續購買。畢竟，可以在公開市場上合理買賣的比特幣數量迅速下降，而且沒有大型持有人公開承諾很快就會退出其職位。

And why does the floating supply of Bitcoin matter, if any holder can instantaneously increase it by opting to sell some of their coins to the market? Because it is float, not the total supply outstanding, which tends to drive prices in real markets. If you're trying to buy something and hardly anyone's selling it, your only option is to offer to pay more and more until a holder is enticed to sell. The more this dynamic holds, the more pressure it places on price to adjust upward. And Bitcoin's ownership structure is increasingly concentrated in entities that are not likely to sell.

而且，為什麼有持有人可以通過選擇將其一些硬幣出售給市場，為什麼持有人可以立即增加比特幣的浮動供應量？因為它是浮動的，而不是總供應量，這傾向於推動實際市場的價格。如果您想購買商品，幾乎沒有人出售它，那麼您唯一的選擇是提供越來越多的付款，直到持有人被吸引出售為止。這種動態越多，價格上漲的壓力就越大。比特幣的所有權結構越來越集中在不太可能出售的實體上。

This element of Bitcoin's investment thesis isn't new, but it's becoming harder to ignore. As more of the circulating supply gets packed away into long-term storage by players who would rather hold than sell, the coin starts to look less like a speculative asset and more like a finite commodity like gold, even if the comparison between the two is imperfect.

比特幣投資論文的這個要素並不是什麼新鮮事物，但是越來越難以忽視。隨著越來越多的循環供應被寧願持有也不願出售的玩家的長期存儲包裝而來，即使兩者之間的比較不完善，硬幣也不再像投機性的資產，更像是黃金這樣的有限商品。

If demand stays the same, that alone would support higher prices over the long term, but if demand grows even a bit, that's when the $1 million price tag starts to look tenable.

如果需求保持不變，那麼從長遠來看，僅此費用就會支持更高的價格，但是如果需求甚至增長，那是100萬美元的價格開始看起來可置的。

Will it actually happen?

它實際上會發生嗎？

It's fair to be skeptical of price targets that sound more like marketing than analysis -- and it's important for investors to recognize clearly that when crypto industry insiders mention sky-high price targets, it's almost always closer to people "talking their books" (i.e., hyping the assets they hold) rather than reporting about the results of a fastidious analysis. A million dollars is a nice round number, and the timeline offers a target date that's conveniently far enough away for almost anything to happen in the intervening years. But in this case, the direction of travel is what matters more than the specific target figure.

對價格目標的持懷疑態度是公平的，聽起來更像是營銷而不是分析 - 對於投資者來說，清楚地認識到，當加密行業內部人士提到高價目標目標時，幾乎總是更接近“談論他們的書籍”（即，炒作他們所持有的資產），而不是對挑剔的分析結果報告。一百萬美元是一個不錯的回合數，時間表提供了一個目標日期，該目標日期非常方便地，幾乎可以在隨後的幾年中發生任何事情。但是在這種情況下，旅行方向比特定目標數字重要。

Not too much will need to go right for Bitcoin for its price to grind higher and higher over the next few years and beyond. No matter what else happens, it will experience another halving in 2028, after which constraints on new supply will get dramatically tighter. As institutional investors, companies, and regular investors continue to accumulate the asset between now and then, there probably won't be more sellers than buyers on average. On a long enough timetable -- and there is a good chance that it will be longer than just a few years -- it is thus quite likely for Bitcoin's price to surpass $1 million.

比特幣的價格在未來幾年及以後的價格越來越高。無論發生什麼還會發生什麼，它將在2028年遇到另一個減半，此後，新供應的限制將變得越來越嚴格。隨著機構投資者，公司和常規投資者在當今之間繼續積累資產，可能不會有比買家平均更多的賣家。在足夠長的時間表上 - 很有可能比幾年更長 - 因此，比特幣的價格很可能超過100萬美元。

That makes it an appealing purchase today.

這使其成為今天的吸引力。

Of course, this trend could weaken or break down. If regulators make an about-face and return to a more restrictive stance on crypto, it would impede adoption significantly and it might even crater prices in the near term. Similarly, if global liquidity dries up, or if Bitcoin fails to earn its role in institutional portfolios on an enduring basis, the story could change quickly.

當然，這種趨勢可能會削弱或分解。如果監管機構的面對面大致，並恢復了對加密貨幣的更嚴格的立場，它將極大地阻礙採用，甚至可能在短期內遍布價格。同樣，如果全球流動性枯竭，或者比特幣未能在持久的基礎上贏得機構投資組合中的作用，那麼故事可能會很快改變。

So if you're going to buy this coin, you need to maintain a long-term holder's mentality rather than a trader's. You don't need it to reach a coin price

因此，如果您要購買此硬幣，則需要保持長期持有人的心態，而不是交易者的心態。您不需要達到硬幣價格