比特币（BTC 3.01％）不需要重新发明到100万美元

当它的价格接近每枚硬币95,000美元时，它只需要继续变得稀缺。

Bitcoin (BTC 3.01%) doesn't need to reinvent itself to get to $1 million, it just needs to continue getting scarcer than it is today, when its price is near $95,000 per coin. If investors and institutions keep showing up with new capital while new supply continues to be harder to come by, its price is more likely to go up than it is to go down over the long term. At least, that's the case being made by a growing number of people in the crypto industry who think the $1 million milestone is closer than most expect.

比特币（BTC 3.01％）不需要重塑自己以达到100万美元，它只需要继续变得稀缺，而当时其价格接近每枚硬币95,000美元。如果投资者和机构不断出现新的资本，而新供应量仍更难获得，那么它的价格比从长远来看的可能性更大。至少，加密货币行业中越来越多的人认为这100万美元的里程碑比大多数人预期的要近。

On May 1, another high-profile prediction was made, this time by Bitwise Asset Management's head of European research, Andre Dragosch, who anticipates Bitcoin reaching that target by 2029. But what exactly are Dragosch and others seeing that has them targeting seven figures for the coin's price in the next few years?

5月1日，这次是欧洲研究负责人安德烈·德拉格斯（Andre Dragosch）的另一个引人注目的预测，他预计比特币到2029年达到了该目标。但是，德拉格斯（Dragosch）和其他人看到他们的目标是在未来几年中以七个数字为目标的七个数字？

Source: Getty Images.

资料来源：盖蒂图像。

Supply is contracting faster than it seems

供应的收缩速度比看起来更快

Per Bitcoin's protocol, there can only ever be 21 million coins mined. As of now, about 94% of the possible supply has already been mined. After the protocol's most recent halving in April 2024, the daily quantity of new supply being created is just 450 bitcoins.

根据比特币的协议，只能开采2100万枚硬币。截至目前，已经开采了约94％的可能的供应。在该协议最近在2024年4月减半之后，每天创建的新供应数量仅为450个比特币。

But that figure overstates the supply that's actually available for purchasing. About 20% of all Bitcoin is thought to be lost, forgotten, or otherwise inaccessible due to people losing their cryptowallet credentials. Meanwhile, the market includes ongoing purchasing of the coin by corporate treasuries, asset managers sponsoring exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and perhaps soon governments. After all that, the amount of Bitcoin that could reasonably be bought or sold on the open market dwindles quickly, and no large holders have publicly committed to exiting their positions anytime soon.

但是，这个数字夸大了实际可供购买的供应。由于人们失去了加密货币资格，大约有20％的比特币被认为是丢失，遗忘或以其他方式无法访问。同时，该市场包括公司国库，资产管理人员赞助交易所交易资金（ETF）以及可能很快政府的资产管理人员的持续购买。毕竟，可以在公开市场上合理买卖的比特币数量迅速下降，而且没有大型持有人公开承诺很快就会退出其职位。

And why does the floating supply of Bitcoin matter, if any holder can instantaneously increase it by opting to sell some of their coins to the market? Because it is float, not the total supply outstanding, which tends to drive prices in real markets. If you're trying to buy something and hardly anyone's selling it, your only option is to offer to pay more and more until a holder is enticed to sell. The more this dynamic holds, the more pressure it places on price to adjust upward. And Bitcoin's ownership structure is increasingly concentrated in entities that are not likely to sell.

而且，为什么有持有人可以通过选择将其一些硬币出售给市场，为什么持有人可以立即增加比特币的浮动供应量？因为它是浮动的，而不是总供应量，这倾向于推动实际市场的价格。如果您想购买商品，几乎没有人出售它，那么您唯一的选择是提供越来越多的付款，直到持有人被吸引出售为止。这种动态越多，价格上涨的压力就越大。比特币的所有权结构越来越集中在不太可能出售的实体上。

This element of Bitcoin's investment thesis isn't new, but it's becoming harder to ignore. As more of the circulating supply gets packed away into long-term storage by players who would rather hold than sell, the coin starts to look less like a speculative asset and more like a finite commodity like gold, even if the comparison between the two is imperfect.

比特币投资论文的这个要素并不是什么新鲜事物，但是越来越难以忽视。随着越来越多的循环供应被宁愿持有也不愿出售的玩家的长期存储包装而来，即使两者之间的比较不完善，硬币也不再像投机性的资产，更像是黄金这样的有限商品。

If demand stays the same, that alone would support higher prices over the long term, but if demand grows even a bit, that's when the $1 million price tag starts to look tenable.

如果需求保持不变，那么从长远来看，仅此费用就会支持更高的价格，但是如果需求甚至增长，那是100万美元的价格开始看起来可置的。

Will it actually happen?

它实际上会发生吗？

It's fair to be skeptical of price targets that sound more like marketing than analysis -- and it's important for investors to recognize clearly that when crypto industry insiders mention sky-high price targets, it's almost always closer to people "talking their books" (i.e., hyping the assets they hold) rather than reporting about the results of a fastidious analysis. A million dollars is a nice round number, and the timeline offers a target date that's conveniently far enough away for almost anything to happen in the intervening years. But in this case, the direction of travel is what matters more than the specific target figure.

对价格目标的持怀疑态度是公平的，听起来更像是营销而不是分析 - 对于投资者来说，清楚地认识到，当加密行业内部人士提到高价目标目标时，几乎总是更接近“谈论他们的书籍”（即，炒作他们所持有的资产），而不是对挑剔的分析结果报告。一百万美元是一个不错的回合数，时间表提供了一个目标日期，该目标日期非常方便地，几乎可以在随后的几年中发生任何事情。但是在这种情况下，旅行方向比特定目标数字重要。

Not too much will need to go right for Bitcoin for its price to grind higher and higher over the next few years and beyond. No matter what else happens, it will experience another halving in 2028, after which constraints on new supply will get dramatically tighter. As institutional investors, companies, and regular investors continue to accumulate the asset between now and then, there probably won't be more sellers than buyers on average. On a long enough timetable -- and there is a good chance that it will be longer than just a few years -- it is thus quite likely for Bitcoin's price to surpass $1 million.

比特币的价格在未来几年及以后的价格越来越高。无论发生什么还会发生什么，它将在2028年遇到另一个减半，此后，新供应的限制将变得越来越严格。随着机构投资者，公司和常规投资者在当今之间继续积累资产，可能不会有比买家平均更多的卖家。在足够长的时间表上 - 很有可能比几年更长 - 因此，比特币的价格很可能超过100万美元。

That makes it an appealing purchase today.

这使其成为今天的吸引力。

Of course, this trend could weaken or break down. If regulators make an about-face and return to a more restrictive stance on crypto, it would impede adoption significantly and it might even crater prices in the near term. Similarly, if global liquidity dries up, or if Bitcoin fails to earn its role in institutional portfolios on an enduring basis, the story could change quickly.

当然，这种趋势可能会削弱或分解。如果监管机构的面对面大致，并恢复了对加密货币的更严格的立场，它将极大地阻碍采用，甚至可能在短期内遍布价格。同样，如果全球流动性枯竭，或者比特币未能在持久的基础上赢得机构投资组合中的作用，那么故事可能会很快改变。

So if you're going to buy this coin, you need to maintain a long-term holder's mentality rather than a trader's. You don't need it to reach a coin price

因此，如果您要购买此硬币，则需要保持长期持有人的心态，而不是交易者的心态。您不需要达到硬币价格