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区块链是一个技术上的奇迹,但是在这种竞争激烈的格局中,我开始将围绕区块链的社会共识和生态系统视为迄今为止最重要的战略资产。社会层很重要,但由于链条的不同原因。
The social consensus and ecosystem around blockchain is by far its most important strategic asset in this vastly competitive landscape. We discuss how this 'Layer 0' factor is crucial and how it can only really excel at one primary mission.
在这种竞争激烈的格局中,围绕区块链的社会共识和生态系统是迄今为止最重要的战略资产。我们讨论了这个“ 0层”因素如何至关重要,以及它如何才能真正在一个主要任务中表现出色。
What do you get when you combine a passion for crypto with a knack for economics? Ben Bernanke impressions and a deep dive into the Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems.
当您将对加密货币的热情与经济学的诀窍结合在一起时,您会得到什么?本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的印象,并深入了解比特币和以太坊生态系统。
We’ve written before about how cryptocurrencies are best understood as a technical solution to a social problem. In the case of bitcoin, the founders recognized that the monetary system was fundamentally broken and decided to build a cryptocurrency focused on scarcity. The essence of bitcoin is that it's an excellent store of value, a property that is useful in a world with an excess of liquidity and risky assets.
我们之前曾写过关于如何最好地将加密货币理解为社会问题的技术解决方案。就比特币而言,创始人认识到货币体系从根本上破坏了,并决定建立以稀缺性为重点的加密货币。比特币的本质是,它是一种非常出色的价值存储,在一个过多的流动性和风险资产的世界中很有用。
Of course, if bitcoin is going to be the primary store of value, it needs an ecosystem that can sustain it for the very long term. And that social consensus is going to be crucial to bitcoin's success.
当然,如果比特币将成为价值的主要存储,它需要一个可以长期维持的生态系统。这种社会共识将对比特币的成功至关重要。
To put this in perspective, we'll start with some very broad numbers. The community around bitcoin is focused on the cryptocurrency's role as a scarcity-based asset. It's better than fiat currency and more reliably scarce than gold. It's also immune to politics and protected by a vast proof of work infrastructure. Bitcoin is in a constant battle for mindshare with other crypto-assets and, even more so, against traditional fiat currencies and central-bank-issued assets.
从角度来看,我们将从一些非常广泛的数字开始。比特币周围的社区专注于加密货币作为基于稀缺的资产的作用。它比法定货币好,比黄金更可靠。它也不受政治的影响,并受到大量工作基础设施的保护。比特币一直在与其他加密资料进行思维斗争,甚至更多地与传统的菲亚特货币和中央银行发行的资产。
This is not the same as other stores-of-value. There can be many kinds of government and corporate debt, and their values are all tied to the likelihood of repayment. The closest analogy for bitcoin is with gold, which does not pay interest or generate any cash flow. Nor is there any meaningful industrial demand for gold. The value of gold is simply that it is scarce and getting more of it is not easy.
这与其他价值商店不同。可能有许多政府和公司债务,其价值都与还款的可能性有关。比特币的最接近类比是黄金,金额不支付利息或产生任何现金流。黄金也没有任何有意义的工业需求。黄金的价值仅仅是因为它稀缺,而获得更多的价值并不容易。
One particularly important feature of this crypto ecosystem is that it is a zero-sum game. If you admit that there can be more than one cryptocurrency used as a store of value, you are on a slippery slope because technically, there can be an infinite supply of identical copies of bitcoin. If there can be two, there can be a thousand. If that happens, the value of bitcoin is uncertain and likely low.
该加密生态系统的一个特别重要的特征是它是零和游戏。如果您承认可以将多种加密货币用作价值存储,那么您就在湿滑的斜坡上,因为从技术上讲,可以提供相同的比特币副本。如果可以有两个,则可以有一千。如果发生这种情况,比特币的价值不确定且可能很低。
Right now, there are no other cryptocurrencies that have a value even remotely close to that of bitcoin. Assets like litecoin, bitcoin cash, dogecoin and others represent a tiny fraction of bitcoin's market capitalization. The only asset in the same general league is ether, and I would argue that it should be seen less as a cryptocurrency and more as a stake in a computing ecosystem.
目前,没有其他的加密货币具有远程接近比特币的价值。 Litecoin,Bitcoin Cash,Dogecoin等资产代表了比特币市值的一小部分。同一通用联盟中唯一的资产是以太,我认为应该将其视为加密货币,而将其视为计算生态系统中的股份。
The result of this logic is a uniquely aggressive approach to mindshare. The value of bitcoin must be sustained by constant memetic warfare against other cryptocurrencies. Scroll through r/bitcoin, and you will find a stream of memes that aim to reinforce the value of bitcoin. Typical content includes dire warnings about the U.S. dollar's debasement with quantitative easing, the serious U.S. federal debt, the horrors of inflation, and rapturous predictions for future prices. That quantitative easing did not cause inflation and that low to moderate inflations inflict no measurable economic harm does not matter in that context: Political harm, yes, economic harm no. (See here and here)
这种逻辑的结果是一种独特的积极进取的思维方式。比特币的价值必须通过对其他加密货币的持续记忆战来维持。滚动浏览R/比特币,您会发现旨在增强比特币价值的模因流。典型的内容包括有关美元贬低的严重警告,以量化的宽松,严重的美国债务,通货膨胀的恐怖以及对未来价格的狂热预测。这种量化的宽松并没有导致通货膨胀,而低至中等通货膨胀不会在这种情况下造成任何可衡量的经济伤害:政治伤害,是的,经济伤害,没有。 (请参阅此处和此处)
A typical bitcoin meme includes a reminder that a long, long time ago, a dollar would buy you a full bag of groceries. The implication is that you are being robbed through gradual printing of money. This meme has never stood up to the most basic examination. Moderate inflation is fine, necessary, and infinitely better than deflation. We are vastly better off than we were when a dollar could buy a bag or groceries, but acknowledging that would undermine the narrative. It does not matter, however. Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
一个典型的比特币模因提醒人们,很久以前,一美元会给您买一袋杂货。这意味着您正在通过逐渐印刷金钱而被抢劫。这个模因从来没有参加过最基本的考试。中等通货膨胀率是良好的,必要的,并且比通气更好。我们比一美元可以购买袋子或杂货时要好得多,但承认这会破坏叙述。但是,没关系。永远不要让事实妨碍一个好故事。
To sustain its value, bitcoin needs a very assertive social consensus. And that has to continue for an exceedingly long time. Gold's use as a shared global store of value dates to 650 BCE in ancient Türkiye, so they have a significant head start. And while there are other precious metals, none of them have ever approached gold in terms of total market capitalization. The market cap of gold is 10 times larger than the market cap for silver.
为了维持其价值,比特币需要非常自信的社会共识。这必须持续很长时间。 Gold用作古代Türkiye公元前650年的全球价值商店的使用,因此他们有很大的开端。尽管还有其他贵金属,但在总市值方面,没有一个人曾经接近黄金。黄金的市值是银的10倍。
The social ecosystem that underpins Ethereum is different. First and foremost, Ethereum is the world computer. Ethereum is a positive-sum ecosystem where people are encouraged to build and extend. The discussion and tone of r/Ethereum is, again, a good proxy for the whole ecosystem: it is focused on engineering, development, and new applications.
支撑以太坊的社会生态系统不同。首先,以太坊是世界计算机。以太坊是一个积极的生态系统,鼓励人们建造和扩展。 R/以太坊的讨论和语调再次是整个生态系统的良好代理:它专注于工程,开发和新应用。
Ethereum, like bitcoin, has an equally passionate Layer Zero ecosystem and is as dominant compared to other “smart contract” blockchains as bitcoin is to other pure crypto-assets. Ethereum's dominance is visible in the market cap of the asset but also in its share of
像比特币一样,以太坊具有同样热情的零层生态系统,与其他“智能合同”区块链相比,比特币与其他纯净的加密资产一样具有统治地位。以太坊的主导地位在资产的市值中可见
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