比特币的Sharpe比率与黄金收敛，表明相似的风险调整后收益，支持其价值储存的角色。

比特币的Sharpe比率与黄金收敛，表明相似的风险调整后收益，支持其价值储存的角色。

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

* Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio converges with gold’s, indicating similar risk-adjusted returns, supporting its store-of-value role.

*比特币的Sharpe比率与黄金相聚，表明相似的风险调整后收益，支持其价值储存的角色。

* Gold outperformed Bitcoin in Q1 2025 with a 30.33% price gain versus Bitcoin’s 3.84%, driven by economic uncertainty.

*在第1季度2025年，黄金的价格增长了30.33％的比特币，而比特币为3.84％，这是由经济不确定性驱动的。

* Bitcoin ETF inflows are recovering, and analysts predict BTC could reach $110,000–$444,000 in 2025.

*比特币ETF流入正在恢复，分析师预测BTC在2025年可能达到110,000- $ 444,000。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is holding above $100,000, leading Fidelity Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, to say that the crypto asset could be reclaiming its position as a leading store-of-value contender.

比特币（BTC）的价格持有超过100,000美元，全球宏观宏观总监Jurrien Timmer，他说该加密货币资产可能是作为价值商店的领先商店竞争者的地位。

According to his recent analysis, the Sharpe ratios of Bitcoin and gold are converging, suggesting that the two assets are increasingly comparable in risk-adjusted returns. The Sharpe ratio measures the rate of return an investment provides for the risk taken. It compares an investment's performance to a risk-free benchmark relative to its volatility.

根据他最近的分析，比特币和黄金的夏普比率正在融合，这表明这两个资产在风险调整后的收益中越来越可比。 Sharpe比率衡量投资规定所采取的风险的回报率。它将投资的绩效与无风险基准相对于其波动性进行了比较。

The chart below, tracking weekly data between 2018 and May 2025, shows Bitcoin’s returns (1x) catching up to gold’s (4x), with gold at $22.48 and Bitcoin at $15.95 in relative performance terms.

下图在2018年至2025年5月之间跟踪每周的数据，显示了比特币的回报（1倍）赶上了Gold's（4倍），Gold为22.48美元，比特币的相对性能方面为15.95美元。

From an allocation standpoint, a 4:1 gold-to-Bitcoin ratio is recommended for a store-of-value hedge, highlighting an intriguing observation.

从分配的角度来看，建议对树篱存储4：1金与币比率，突出了一个有趣的观察。

“After the 2018 crypto winter, it took Bitcoin about 4 years to fully recover to new all-time highs (ATHs) in May 2022. In contrast, after the 2020 corona crisis, gold took less than a year to reach new highs. This suggests that Bitcoin might be a more "risky" asset class than gold, at least in terms of the time it takes to recover from a steep market downturn.”

“在2018年加密货币冬季之后，比特币花了大约4年的时间才能完全恢复到2022年5月的新历史高峰（ATHS）。相反，在2020年的Corona危机之后，黄金花了不到一年的时间才能达到新的高点。这表明比特币可能是比金色更“风险”的资产级别，至少在时间上可以从陡峭的市场中恢复过来。

While Bitcoin’s SoV credential improves above $100,000, Ecoinometrics, a Bitcoin-focused macroeconomic newsletter, pointed out that it was not smooth sailing in Q1 2025.

尽管比特币的SoV凭据提高了100,000美元，但以比特币为重点的宏观经济通讯EcoinoMetrics指出，第1季度2025年第1季度航行并不顺利。

In 2024, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded traded-funds (ETFs) saw a staggering $35 billion net inflows, purchasing 500,000 BTC and driving a 120% return. However, 2025 started on a different note. The first four months saw Bitcoin ETF flows drop to less than a third compared to 2024, and gold ETFs attracted more capital.

2024年，比特币现货交易所交易的交易基金（ETFS）的净流入率惊人，购买了350亿美元，购买了500,000 BTC，并带来了120％的回报。但是，2025年开始了不同的音符。与2024年相比，前四个月的比特币ETF流量下降到三分之一不到三分之一，而黄金ETF吸引了更多的资本。

The newsletter noted that this shift could be attributed to Q1 uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, trade policy, and the US economy. Ecoinometrics stated, “With more good news than bad news in Q1 2025, and a 30.33% price gain for gold in 2025 compared to a 3.84% gain for Bitcoin, it’s no surprise that investors preferred the stability of gold during this period of economic unease.”

该新闻通讯指出，这一转变可能归因于围绕美联储政策，贸易政策和美国经济的第一季度不确定性。生态计量学指出：“在2025年第1季度的坏消息比坏消息多，2025年黄金的价格增长30.33％，而比特币的增长率为3.84％，这并不奇怪，在这一经济不安时期，投资者更喜欢黄金的稳定性。”

According to the analysis, Bitcoin performed better as a “high-beta growth asset,” thriving in rising liquidity and fiat debasement environments.

根据分析，比特币作为“高β增长资产”的表现更好，在不断上升的流动性和法定贬值环境中蓬勃发展。

However, recent developments signal a shift: US trade policy clarity, a softer Federal Reserve stance, and easing financial conditions have spurred steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

但是，最近的事态发展标志着转变：美国贸易政策的清晰度，柔和的美联储立场以及宽松的财务状况促使比特币ETF稳定流入。

A higher Sharpe ratio is a positive metric for Bitcoin, significantly increasing the probability of reaching new all-time highs above $110,000 in May. According to Bitcoin Suisse, a crypto custody firm, BTC’s high Sharpe ratio has allowed the asset to thrive in risk-on and risk-off environments since the US presidential election.

较高的Sharpe比率是比特币的正值度量，可显着增加5月在110,000美元以上的新历史高点的可能性。根据加密货币公司比特币瑞士的说法，自美国总统大选以来，BTC的高夏普比率使该资产在风险和冒险环境中蓬勃发展。

With more than 88% of its supply in profit, BTC currently behaves as a high-conviction bet, where the likelihood of an “acceleration phase” moving forward.

BTC拥有超过88％的利润供应量，目前表现为一个高罪分钟，在这种情况下，“加速阶段”前进的可能性。

“We can say that Bitcoin has a decent chance of reaching $250,000 or more in 2025,” reads a recent report by crypto analysts at Ecoinometrics. The analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s interplay with gold and utilizes a gold-based forecast to project the potential revaluation of non-sovereign hard assets.

“我们可以说，比特币在2025年有很大的机会达到25万美元或更多的机会，” Crypto分析师在EcoinoMetrics的最新报告中写道。该分析侧重于比特币与黄金的相互作用，并利用基于黄金的预测来预测非主管硬资产的潜在重估。

If Bitcoin’s network value, measured in gold, follows a power curve, and gold maintains its current value, analysts suggest it could hit $444,000 in 2025. However, a more conservative estimate by Bitcoin analyst Apsk32 points to a "reasonable" target of $220,000 for the year.

如果比特币的网络价值以黄金测量，遵循功率曲线，并且黄金保持其当前价值，则分析师认为它可能在2025年达到444,000美元。但是，比特币分析师APSK32点更保守的估算值为“合理”目标，为220,000美元。