比特币投降了一个周末超过107,000美元的周末，最后一次易手接近$ 103,200

比特币的暴力挥杆解释了。穆迪决定削减美国君主信用等级为AA1的决定，波动率降落

Bitcoin price tumbled more than 4,000 on Monday, wiping out a weekend burst above $107,000 as the global risk-off mood deepened with Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating.

周一，比特币价格跌幅超过4,000，随着穆迪（Moody）降级美国信用等级的加深，全球风险情绪加深了一个周末爆发。

Bitcoin’s Violent Swing Explained

比特币的暴力挥杆解释了

The flagship cryptocurrency was last changing hands at around $103,200, having hit an intraday high of $107,111 during thin Asian hours before liquidity evaporated and spot markets on Binance and Coinbase slid to the $102,000 level.

旗舰加密货币的最后一次易手，大约为103,200美元，在亚洲稀薄的小时内，在流动性蒸发和现货市场上的货物市场上跌入了107,111美元，而Coinbase的景点则下跌至102,000美元。

The volatility landed on the heels of Moody’s decision late Friday to cut the sovereign credit rating of the United States to Aa1, stripping the world’s largest economy of the last triple-A crown it still retained after downgrades by S&P in 2011 and Fitch earlier in 2023.

在周五晚些时候穆迪决定将美国的主权信用等级降低到AA1上的命中，这一波动性降落在2011年S＆P降级后仍保留下来的最后一个Triple-A冠军中，并剥夺了世界上最大的经济体，并于2023年早些时候降级。

Moody’s cited an “uninterrupted rise in debt and interest costs” as the main driver for the downgrade, which came after the US Treasury posted record outlays for 30-year bonds last week to meet bids and push yields over the 5% level for the first time since April.

穆迪（Moody's）将“债务和利息成本的不间断上升”称为降级的主要驱动力，该降级是在美国财政部上周发布了30年期债券的记录票房，以满足竞标和推动收益率以来，自4月以来首次以5％的价格推高。

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the ratings move in a televised interview on Sunday.

财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）在周日的电视转播采访中驳回了评级。

“Moody’s is a lagging indicator. We didn’t get here in the past 100 days. We inherited a 6.7 percent deficit-to-GDP, the highest ever outside a recession or war,” said Bessent, adding that the Biden administration was determined to bring spending down and grow the economy.

“穆迪是一个滞后的指标。在过去的100天内我们没有到达这里。我们继承了6.7％的赤字至GDP，这是经济衰退或战争以外的最高损失。” Bessent说，他补充说，拜登政府决心将支出降低并发展经济。

While macro anxiety explains most of the Bitcoin pull-back, derivatives positioning amplified the swing. Coinglass data shows more than $665 million worth of leveraged positions were liquidated on the entire crypto market as perpetual funding flipped sharply positive into the spike and then reversed.

宏焦虑解释了大多数比特币的倾斜，但定位的衍生物放大了秋千。 Coinglass数据显示，在整个加密货币市场上清算了价值超过6.65亿美元的杠杆头寸，因为永久性资金在尖峰上迅速呈阳性，然后反转。

Dealers long gamma seized the opportunity to lock in profits, Singapore-based QCP Capital said in its Monday note.

总部位于新加坡的QCP Capital在周一的票据中说，经销商朗伽玛（Long Gamma）抓住了锁定利润的机会。

The weekend pop owed much to Metaplanet’s $104 million BTC purchase, alongside Strategy Inc.’s usual accumulation, QCP added.

QCP补充说，周末流行音乐归功于Metaplanet耗资1.04亿美元的BTC购买，以及战略Inc.的通常积累。

But Bitcoin’s ability to rally while equities softened reinforces BTC’s positioning as a legitimate store of value, the fund managers noted.

基金经理指出，但是比特币在股票软化的同时，比特币的能力加强了BTC的定位作为合法的价值存储。

Flows into the ten US spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds underline that narrative.

流入十个美国居币交易所交易贸易资金的叙述下划线。

As of 29 April, the latest consolidated figure, the ETFs had drawn a cumulative 38.99 billion of net subscriptions and hold roughly 1.14 million BTC after another $591 million day of inflows, according to Farside Investors data.

根据Farside Investors的数据，截至4月29日，最新的合并数字是，ETF累积了389.9亿美元的净订阅，并在另外5.91亿美元的流入后持有约114万BTC。

Technical traders are divided on what comes next for Bitcoin.

技术交易者在比特币接下来会发生的事情上分歧。

Piranha Profits founder Adam Khoo reminded his 450,000 followers on X that previous US downgrades triggered 10% corrections in the S&P 500 but were fully erased within a year.

Piranha Profits创始人亚当·库（Adam Khoo）提醒他在X上的450,000个追随者，以前美国降级触发了10％的校正，在标准普尔500指数中，但在一年内被完全删除。

“If the SPX drops another 10 percent this round, it would be another great opportunity for me to load up on high-quality businesses,” he wrote, musing whether markets will panic a third time or be smarter now.

他写道：“如果SPX在本轮比赛中再下降10％，这将是我加载高质量业务的另一个绝佳机会。”他沉思着说市场是第三次惊慌失措还是现在更聪明。

For Bitcoin, the picture is less binary. On-chain data show exchange balances at multi-year lows, and options desks report persistent call-side skew - evidence, QCP says, of structurally bullish positioning despite the whipsaw.

对于比特币，图片不那么二进制。链上的数据显示了多年低点的交换余额，并且选项桌报告报告持续的呼叫侧偏斜 - QCP表示，尽管有鞭打，但有结构看涨的定位。

But traders are watching the $101,000-$100,000 band for first-line support, with a decisive break lower exposing the 50-day exponential moving average around $98,400. Reclaiming $107,000 would reopen January’s record high at $109,114.

但是，交易者正在观看$ 101,000- $ 100,000的一线支持，而决定性的休息时间较低，揭露了50天的指数式移动平均水平，左右为98,400美元。回收107,000美元将重新开放一月份的纪录高点，为109,114美元。

Until then, the asset appears content to digest the Moody’s shock - and to let macro traders, not crypto die-hards, set the tempo of the next move.

在此之前，资产显得满足，以消化喜怒无常的震惊 - 让宏观交易者而不是加密货币顽固的顽固派设定下一步的节奏。