如果您想了解美国，请观看职业摔跤比赛

有一个受欢迎的俗语，“如果您想了解美国，请观看职业摔跤比赛。”虽然它可能是毛病的，并且有些简化

A popular saying goes, "If you want to understand America, watch a pro wrestling match." While glib and a little oversimplified, it appears to 'ring' true, as the U.S. financial markets are now exhibiting traits similar to pro-wrestling's concept of "kayfabe."

一个受欢迎的谚语说：“如果您想了解美国，请观看职业摔跤比赛。”尽管Glib和一些过于简单的简化，但它似乎是正确的，因为美国金融市场现在表现出类似于Pro-Wrestling的“ Kayfabe”概念的特征。

For those unfamiliar, kayfabe is an illusion that the in-ring scripted action is real, with the audience suspending their belief for entertainment. A similar dynamic has played out in the financial market for at least a decade.

对于那些不熟悉的人来说，凯法贝（Kayfabe）是一种幻想，认为宾语内的脚本动作是真实的，观众暂停了他们对娱乐的信念。至少十年来，一种类似的动力已经在金融市场上发挥了作用。

The U.S. government has repeatedly hit its self-imposed debt ceiling, or borrowing limit, a sign of fiscal crisis. Still, investors continued lending money to the government at ultra-low yields, including during times of stress in the global economy, maintaining the kayfabe that the government is a safe and reliable borrower.

美国政府反复袭击了其自我强加的债务上限或借贷限制，这是财政危机的标志。尽管如此，投资者仍继续以超低收益率向政府贷款，包括在全球经济压力期间，维持凯法比（Kayfabe），即政府是一个安全可靠的借款人。

Recently, however, bond market participants have exposed kayfabe, as legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones had warned, weakening the illusion and strengthening the case for investing in assets with haven and store-of-value appeal like bitcoin (BTC) and gold.

然而，最近，债券市场参与者暴露了凯法贝（Kayfabe），正如传奇交易商保罗·厄尔（Paul Tudor Jones）警告的那样，削弱了幻觉，并加强了与黑文（Haven）和诸如比特币（BTC）和黄金（Gold）等价值呼吁的资产进行投资的案件。

Bonds blast the kayfabe

债券爆炸kayfabe

This week's big news is the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield topping the 5% mark and how it could destabilize financial markets. However, we have been there before in October last year, according to the data source TradingView.

本周的重大新闻是美国30年的财政部收益率高于5％，以及如何破坏金融市场。但是，根据数据源TradingView的数据，我们去年十月以前去过那里。

The real story is the spike in yields on the Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Their principal amount is adjusted for inflation.

真实的故事是库房通货膨胀保护证券（TIPS）的收益率激增。他们的本金金额已调整以进行通货膨胀。

The 30-year TIPS yield recently rose above 2.7%, the highest since 2001. In other words, investors demand a yield at least 2.7% greater than inflation in return for loaning money to the government for three decades.

最近30年的提示收益率上升到2.7％以上，是2001年以来最高的。换句话说，投资者要求收益率至少比通货膨胀高2.7％，以回报向政府贷款三十年。

This comes as the consumer price index (CPI) growth continued to slow toward the Fed's 2% target, and the market-based forward-looking inflation measures like breakevens remain stable in familiar ranges seen since 2022. Plus, the supposedly inflationary U.S.-China tariff war has eased.

这是因为消费者价格指数（CPI）的增长继续朝美联储的2％目标降低，并且基于市场的前瞻性通货膨胀措施（如Breakevens）在2022年以来熟悉的范围内保持稳定。此外，据称是通货膨胀的美国 - 中国关税战争也减轻了。

Divergence is a clear indicator that investors are seeking the most expensive real yield due to concerns over fiscal policy and not inflation, tariffs, or growth dynamics.

差异清楚地表明，由于对财政政策而不是通货膨胀，关税或增长动态的担忧，投资者正在寻求最昂贵的实际收益率。

"The world is saying, we don't trust your long-term fiscal trajectory and we want to be compensated for it," pseudonymous analyst EndGame Macro said in an explainer on X.

伪匿名分析师最终游戏宏观在X上的解释器中说：“世界在说，我们不信任您的长期财政轨迹，我们希望得到补偿。”

As of May 19, the U.S. national debt, also known as the total public debt, stood at $36.22 trillion. It is projected to rise by $22 trillion over the next 10 years, with debt-to-GDP reaching 156% by 2055, according to analysis conducted by EY's Quantitative Economics and Statistics (QUEST) practice. The QUEST report also said the burgeoning debt will weigh heavily on economic growth.

截至5月19日，美国国家债务（也称为公共债务总债务）为362.22万亿美元。根据EY的定量经济学和统计实践的分析，预计未来10年将在未来10年内上升22万亿美元，到2055年，债务至GDP将上涨156％。 Quest报告还说，新兴的债务将严重影响经济增长。

Robin Brooks, senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, pointed to the five-year forward real interest rate as evidence of bond players questioning the fiscal sustainability.

布鲁金斯机构全球经济与发展计划的高级研究员罗宾·布鲁克斯（Robin Brooks）指出，五年前进的实际利率是债券参与者对财政可持续性质疑的证据。

"The 5y5y forward real interest rate now stands at 2.5%, which is the highest level going all the way back to 2010. Most importantly, it far exceeds levels seen during hawkish Fed episodes, like the 2013 'taper tantrum' or the 2022/23 hiking cycle after the COVID inflation scare," Brooks said in a Substack post, while noting the stability in the 5y5y forward inflation breakevens.

“现在的5岁前进实际利率现在为2.5％，这是可以追溯到2010年的最高水平。最重要的是，它远远超过了霍克什美联储发作中所见的水平，例如2013年的taper taper taper tantrum'或2022/23的越野膨胀循环，在brok膨胀后，布鲁克在替代帖子中说，在替代方面，这是一位替代品的发动。

"That makes it all the more likely that many years of irresponsible fiscal policy are catching up with the U.S, adding urgency to the need to get our fiscal house in order," Brooks added.

布鲁克斯补充说：“这使得多年不负责任的财政政策更有可能赶上美国，从而增加了需要使我们的财政房屋井井有条的需求。”

FX-bond correlations are dead

FX键相关已死

Another sign that the market is waking up to the fact that the emperor has no clothes is the breakdown in the traditional correlation between the foreign exchange (forex) and bond markets.

市场的另一个迹象表明，皇帝没有衣服的事实是外汇（外汇）和债券市场之间传统相关性的细分。

Typically, rising bond yields boost the appeal of the home currency, causing it to appreciate against other fiat currencies. For example, the EUR/USD has historically closely tracked the spread between yields on German and U.S. two-year government bonds.

通常，上涨的债券产生会提高本国货币的上诉，从而使其对其他法定货币表示赞赏。例如，欧元/美元历来仔细地跟踪了德国和美国两年政府债券的收益率之间的差异。

But not anymore. The EUR/USD has risen sharply since early April despite the narrowing of the two-year yield differential, led by a sharp rise in the U.S. two-year yield. The breakdown in correlations indicates that concerns over fiscal stability have likely prompted investors to move away from U.S. assets.

但不再了。自4月初以来，尽管两年的收益率差异缩小，但欧元/美元的增长幅度急剧上升，这是美国两年的收益率急剧上升。相关性的细分表明，对财政稳定的担忧很可能促使投资者摆脱美国资产。

The degree of dollar bearishness is evident from the options market, which is now most bullish on EUR/USD since COVID. It's unusual for the options market to put a greater premium on the upside in euro than the downside, according to Brooks.

从期权市场可以明显看出美元看跌程度，这是自从Covid以来最看涨的欧元/美元。据布鲁克斯称，期权市场对欧元的上涨更加溢价比不利的一面是不寻常的。

This might come as a surprise given that

鉴于