如果您想了解美國，請觀看職業摔跤比賽

有一個受歡迎的俗語，“如果您想了解美國，請觀看職業摔跤比賽。”雖然它可能是毛病的，並且有些簡化

A popular saying goes, "If you want to understand America, watch a pro wrestling match." While glib and a little oversimplified, it appears to 'ring' true, as the U.S. financial markets are now exhibiting traits similar to pro-wrestling's concept of "kayfabe."

一個受歡迎的諺語說：“如果您想了解美國，請觀看職業摔跤比賽。”儘管Glib和一些過於簡單的簡化，但它似乎是正確的，因為美國金融市場現在表現出類似於Pro-Wrestling的“ Kayfabe”概念的特徵。

For those unfamiliar, kayfabe is an illusion that the in-ring scripted action is real, with the audience suspending their belief for entertainment. A similar dynamic has played out in the financial market for at least a decade.

對於那些不熟悉的人來說，凱法貝（Kayfabe）是一種幻想，認為賓語內的腳本動作是真實的，觀眾暫停了他們對娛樂的信念。至少十年來，一種類似的動力已經在金融市場上發揮了作用。

The U.S. government has repeatedly hit its self-imposed debt ceiling, or borrowing limit, a sign of fiscal crisis. Still, investors continued lending money to the government at ultra-low yields, including during times of stress in the global economy, maintaining the kayfabe that the government is a safe and reliable borrower.

美國政府反复襲擊了其自我強加的債務上限或借貸限制，這是財政危機的標誌。儘管如此，投資者仍繼續以超低收益率向政府貸款，包括在全球經濟壓力期間，維持凱法比（Kayfabe），即政府是一個安全可靠的借款人。

Recently, however, bond market participants have exposed kayfabe, as legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones had warned, weakening the illusion and strengthening the case for investing in assets with haven and store-of-value appeal like bitcoin (BTC) and gold.

然而，最近，債券市場參與者暴露了凱法貝（Kayfabe），正如傳奇交易商保羅·厄爾（Paul Tudor Jones）警告的那樣，削弱了幻覺，並加強了與黑文（Haven）和諸如比特幣（BTC）和黃金（Gold）等價值呼籲的資產進行投資的案件。

Bonds blast the kayfabe

債券爆炸kayfabe

This week's big news is the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield topping the 5% mark and how it could destabilize financial markets. However, we have been there before in October last year, according to the data source TradingView.

本週的重大新聞是美國30年的財政部收益率高於5％，以及如何破壞金融市場。但是，根據數據源TradingView的數據，我們去年十月以前去過那裡。

The real story is the spike in yields on the Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Their principal amount is adjusted for inflation.

真實的故事是庫房通貨膨脹保護證券（TIPS）的收益率激增。他們的本金金額已調整以進行通貨膨脹。

The 30-year TIPS yield recently rose above 2.7%, the highest since 2001. In other words, investors demand a yield at least 2.7% greater than inflation in return for loaning money to the government for three decades.

最近30年的提示收益率上升到2.7％以上，是2001年以來最高的。換句話說，投資者要求收益率至少比通貨膨脹高2.7％，以回報向政府貸款三十年。

This comes as the consumer price index (CPI) growth continued to slow toward the Fed's 2% target, and the market-based forward-looking inflation measures like breakevens remain stable in familiar ranges seen since 2022. Plus, the supposedly inflationary U.S.-China tariff war has eased.

這是因為消費者價格指數（CPI）的增長繼續朝美聯儲的2％目標降低，並且基於市場的前瞻性通貨膨脹措施（如Breakevens）在2022年以來熟悉的範圍內保持穩定。此外，據稱是通貨膨脹的美國 - 中國關稅戰爭也減輕了。

Divergence is a clear indicator that investors are seeking the most expensive real yield due to concerns over fiscal policy and not inflation, tariffs, or growth dynamics.

差異清楚地表明，由於對財政政策而不是通貨膨脹，關稅或增長動態的擔憂，投資者正在尋求最昂貴的實際收益率。

"The world is saying, we don't trust your long-term fiscal trajectory and we want to be compensated for it," pseudonymous analyst EndGame Macro said in an explainer on X.

偽匿名分析師最終遊戲宏觀在X上的解釋器中說：“世界在說，我們不信任您的長期財政軌跡，我們希望得到補償。”

As of May 19, the U.S. national debt, also known as the total public debt, stood at $36.22 trillion. It is projected to rise by $22 trillion over the next 10 years, with debt-to-GDP reaching 156% by 2055, according to analysis conducted by EY's Quantitative Economics and Statistics (QUEST) practice. The QUEST report also said the burgeoning debt will weigh heavily on economic growth.

截至5月19日，美國國家債務（也稱為公共債務總債務）為362.22萬億美元。根據EY的定量經濟學和統計實踐的分析，預計未來10年將在未來10年內上升22萬億美元，到2055年，債務至GDP將上漲156％。 Quest報告還說，新興的債務將嚴重影響經濟增長。

Robin Brooks, senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, pointed to the five-year forward real interest rate as evidence of bond players questioning the fiscal sustainability.

布魯金斯機構全球經濟與發展計劃的高級研究員羅賓·布魯克斯（Robin Brooks）指出，五年前進的實際利率是債券參與者對財政可持續性質疑的證據。

"The 5y5y forward real interest rate now stands at 2.5%, which is the highest level going all the way back to 2010. Most importantly, it far exceeds levels seen during hawkish Fed episodes, like the 2013 'taper tantrum' or the 2022/23 hiking cycle after the COVID inflation scare," Brooks said in a Substack post, while noting the stability in the 5y5y forward inflation breakevens.

“現在的5歲前進實際利率現在為2.5％，這是可以追溯到2010年的最高水平。最重要的是，它遠遠超過了霍克什美聯儲發作中所見的水平，例如2013年的taper taper taper tantrum'或2022/23的越野膨脹循環，在brok膨脹後，布魯克在替代帖子中說，在替代方面，這是一位替代品的發動。

"That makes it all the more likely that many years of irresponsible fiscal policy are catching up with the U.S, adding urgency to the need to get our fiscal house in order," Brooks added.

布魯克斯補充說：“這使得多年不負責任的財政政策更有可能趕上美國，從而增加了需要使我們的財政房屋井井有條的需求。”

FX-bond correlations are dead

FX鍵相關已死

Another sign that the market is waking up to the fact that the emperor has no clothes is the breakdown in the traditional correlation between the foreign exchange (forex) and bond markets.

市場的另一個跡象表明，皇帝沒有衣服的事實是外匯（外匯）和債券市場之間傳統相關性的細分。

Typically, rising bond yields boost the appeal of the home currency, causing it to appreciate against other fiat currencies. For example, the EUR/USD has historically closely tracked the spread between yields on German and U.S. two-year government bonds.

通常，上漲的債券產生會提高本國貨幣的上訴，從而使其對其他法定貨幣表示讚賞。例如，歐元/美元歷來仔細地跟踪了德國和美國兩年政府債券的收益率之間的差異。

But not anymore. The EUR/USD has risen sharply since early April despite the narrowing of the two-year yield differential, led by a sharp rise in the U.S. two-year yield. The breakdown in correlations indicates that concerns over fiscal stability have likely prompted investors to move away from U.S. assets.

但不再了。自4月初以來，儘管兩年的收益率差異縮小，但歐元/美元的增長幅度急劇上升，這是美國兩年的收益率急劇上升。相關性的細分錶明，對財政穩定的擔憂很可能促使投資者擺脫美國資產。

The degree of dollar bearishness is evident from the options market, which is now most bullish on EUR/USD since COVID. It's unusual for the options market to put a greater premium on the upside in euro than the downside, according to Brooks.

從期權市場可以明顯看出美元看跌程度，這是自從Covid以來最看漲的歐元/美元。據布魯克斯稱，期權市場對歐元的上漲更加溢價比不利的一面是不尋常的。

This might come as a surprise given that

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