比特币的看跌势头：假货还是真正的交易？

比特币最近的浸入临时假货还是更深的看跌势头的迹象？分析链上数据和市场趋势以找出答案。

Bitcoin's Bearish Momentum: Fakeout or the Real Deal?

比特币的看跌势头：假货还是真正的交易？

Bitcoin's been a rollercoaster lately, hasn't it? After a promising push toward $120,000, things stalled out, leaving many wondering if it was a fakeout. Let's dive into what's happening with Bitcoin, the bearish momentum, and whether this is just a blip or something more significant.

比特币最近是过山车，不是吗？在有希望的120,000美元推向12万美元之后，事情停滞不前，让许多人想知道这是否是假的。让我们深入了解比特币，看跌势头的情况，以及这只是一个更重要的东西。

Profit-Taking and the Cooling Rally

获利和冷却集会

According to Swissblock, the recent setback looks more like a pause than a complete breakdown. Profit-taking is definitely up, but it's not as intense as we saw in late 2024. This suggests a cooling-off period where the market digests recent gains.

根据Swissblock的说法，最近的挫折看起来更像是停顿，而不是完全故障。盈利肯定是在上升，但这并不像我们在2024年底看到的那样强烈。这表明市场消化了最近的收益。

The key takeaway? Selling pressure is visible, but not extreme. Think of it as the market taking a breather, not throwing in the towel. On-chain data shows that bids are absorbing supply, indicating underlying strength.

关键要点？销售压力是可见的，但不极端。可以将其视为喘息的市场，而不是扔毛巾。链上数据表明，投标正在吸收供应，表明其潜在的强度。

The Temptation of Unrealized Gains

未实现的诱惑

Here's where things get interesting. A whopping 96% of the Bitcoin supply is in profit. While this sounds great, it also means there's a lot of potential sell pressure. As Swissblock puts it, "Strong holders remain. But unrealized gains are tempting sellers. Until demand returns, each bounce invites supply."

这是事情变得有趣的地方。比特币供应量高达96％是有利可图的。虽然这听起来很棒，但也意味着有很多潜在的卖出压力。正如Swissblock所说，“坚强的持有人仍然存在。但是未实现的收益是诱人的卖家。在需求收益之前，每次反弹都会邀请供应。”

The broader trend is still intact, but momentum needs a reset. It's like a coiled spring, ready to jump, but needing the right trigger.

更广泛的趋势仍然完好无损，但是动量需要重置。这就像一个盘绕的弹簧，准备跳跃，但需要正确的扳机。

Fundamentals Remain Strong

基本面仍然很强

Despite the bearish momentum, Bitcoin's fundamentals are holding up. Swissblock's Bitcoin Fundamentals Index reads neutral, liquidity is recovering, and while network growth is cooling, it’s not collapsing. This creates a consolidation-supportive environment where Bitcoin can grind sideways until it’s ready to break with conviction.

尽管有看跌的动力，比特币的基本面仍在坚持下去。 Swissblock的比特币基本面索引读取中性，流动性正在恢复，尽管网络增长正在冷却，但并没有崩溃。这创造了一个巩固支持的环境，比特币可以侧面磨碎，直到准备好被信念打破为止。

The risk of a “failed breakout” reflects timing rather than a trend reversal. Positioning and liquidity just aren't quite aligned for a sustained continuation yet.

“突破失败”的风险反映了时机而不是趋势逆转。定位和流动性尚不完全保持持续的延续。

Altcoins Under Stress

山寨币在压力下

The altcoin market offers additional clues. While Ethereum continues to outperform Bitcoin, most altcoins are sagging. This selectivity in risk appetite highlights the fragility of momentum outside the largest names. Historically, this pattern often precedes a decisive move in Bitcoin.

Altcoin市场提供了其他线索。尽管以太坊继续胜过比特币，但大多数山寨币都在下垂。风险食欲的这种选择性突出了最大名称之外动量的脆弱性。从历史上看，这种模式通常在比特币决定性举动之前。

The Road Ahead: Breakout or Breakdown?

前面的道路：突破或崩溃？

Swissblock is cautiously constructive, suggesting that Bitcoin is preparing for a breakout, but momentum needs to align. Until then, expect a grind. If Bitcoin flips momentum back to positive, the spillover could be huge, with Ethereum and altcoins likely to explode upward.

Swissblock谨慎地建设性，这表明比特币正在为突破做准备，但动力需要保持一致。在那之前，期待磨碎。如果比特币将动量恢复到积极，那么溢出物可能会很大，以太坊和山寨币可能会向上爆炸。

So, today’s dip to $115,000 looks less like an outright rejection than a test of the market’s ability to digest profits and reset momentum. The next impulse hinges on whether liquidity and demand can reassert themselves before profit-taking accelerates.

因此，今天的下跌至115,000美元看起来不像是对市场消化利润和重置动力的能力的测试。下一个冲动取决于流动性和需求是否可以在获利加速之前重新确定自己。

Institutional HODLing

机构霍德林

Don't forget the big players! Leading Bitcoin companies, like MicroStrategy and Robinhood, are HODLing massive amounts of BTC. This institutional accumulation is reducing the available supply on exchanges and signaling long-term confidence in Bitcoin's future value.

不要忘记大型球员！领先的比特币公司，例如MicroStrategy和Robinhood，都在增加大量BTC。这种机构积累正在减少交易所的可用供应，并信号对比特币的未来价值发出长期信心。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

Is this bearish momentum a fakeout? Maybe. Is it a buying opportunity? Possibly. One thing's for sure: Bitcoin's always keeping us on our toes. Keep an eye on those charts, folks, and remember to buckle up. The ride's never boring, is it?

这是看跌的动力吗？或许。是购买机会吗？可能。可以肯定的是：比特币总是让我们保持脚趾。密切关注这些图表，伙计们，并记住要系好系列。这次旅程从来没有无聊，是吗？