由趋势研究撰写

自2025年4月24日发布研究报告以来，ETH已从1800美元上升到2400美元左右，一个月内增加了约30％。

Since the research report was issued on April 24, 24, ETH has risen from $1,800 to around $2,400, an increase of about 30% in one month . The prediction before the writing of the research report started at $1,450. As an asset target of hundreds of billions of dollars, it is a rare opportunity for large funds to achieve high returns in the short term. The main reasons for the firm bullish view at that time include: ETH still has stable financial data, and its status as an important infrastructure for encryption has not changed; the huge adjustment range of short-term highs (a drop of more than 60% in 4 months); the scale of short positions in the derivatives market is huge, and the bottom spot volume has climbed to an important support swap area after the increase, and the continuous layout of traditional finance and the gradual inflow of ETFs. At present, our forecast for ETH is that it can break through $5,000 in the long term. In an optimistic situation, if BTC rises to $300,000+ in this cycle, ETH is expected to rise to $10,000 , and will capture opportunities for related targets in the ETH ecosystem in the long term.

自从4月24日发布研究报告以来，ETH已从1,800美元增加到$ 2,400，一个月内增加了约30％。撰写研究报告之前的预测为1,450美元。作为数亿美元的资产目标，对于大型资金来说，这是在短期内获得高回报的难得的机会。当时，公司看涨观点的主要原因包括：ETH仍然具有稳定的财务数据，其作为加密的重要基础设施的地位没有改变；短期高点的巨大调整范围（在4个月内下降了60％以上）；衍生品市场中短职位的规模很大，在增加后，最低点量已经攀升至重要的支撑交换区域，以及传统财务的持续布局和ETF的逐渐流入。目前，我们对ETH的预测是，从长远来看，它可能会损失5,000美元。在一个乐观的情况下，如果BTC在这个周期中上涨至30万美元以上，ETH预计将上升到10,000美元，从长远来看，ETH将为ETH生态系统中的相关目标带来机会。

1. Valuation prediction for ETH

1。ETH的估值预测

An important background for the new valuation of ETH is the capture of the trend of integration between key digital assets and traditional finance . We note that BTC, as the most important digital asset, has opened the prelude to being included in the strategic reserve assets of various US states after the approval of the spot ETF, and has gradually become the scale expansion and a certain degree of strategic replacement of US dollar assets. It is currently ranked sixth in the global asset market value. The US BTC spot ETF currently manages approximately US$118.6 billion in assets, accounting for approximately 6% of the total market value of Bitcoin. The trend of integration between crypto assets and traditional finance is beyond doubt. In an interview in Dubai in May, CZ said that the price of Bitcoin in this round of market cycle may reach US$500,000 to US$1 million.

ETH新评估的一个重要背景是捕获关键数字资产与传统财务之间整合的趋势。我们注意到，作为最重要的数字资产作为最重要的数字资产，在现货ETF批准后，已经开辟了被纳入美国各州战略储备资产的前奏，并逐渐成为规模的扩展和一定程度的战略替代美元资产。目前，它在全球资产市场价值中排名第六。美国BTC现场ETF目前管理的资产约为1,186亿美元，约占比特币总市值的6％。加密资产与传统金融之间的整合趋势毫无疑问。 CZ在5月在迪拜接受采访时说，这一轮市场周期中比特币的价格可能达到500,000美元至100万美元。

ETH still has robust financial data, and its status as the most important infrastructure of crypto finance has not changed . Ethereum DeFi's total TVL is about $60 billion, accounting for more than 53% of the global DeFi market, and the market value of stablecoins is $124 billion, accounting for more than 50% of the total market value of global stablecoins. The total AUM of Ethereum ETF is $7.2 billion, and BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL has invested about $2.7 billion in the Ethereum ecosystem, accounting for 92% of its total assets.

ETH仍然具有强大的财务数据，并且其作为加密财务最重要的基础设施的地位没有改变。 Ethereum Defi的总TVL约为600亿美元，占全球DEFI市场的53％以上，而Stablecoins的市场价值为1,240亿美元，占全球Stablecoins总市场价值的50％以上。 Ethereum ETF的总AUM为72亿美元，BlackRock的货币市场基金Buidl已向以太坊生态系统投资了约27亿美元，占其总资产的92％。

After reaching three peaks at $4,000 in 24, ETH quickly fell to around $1,300, with an ATH of $4,800+. Based on the following potential factors, we predict that the ETH price will reach $5,000 in this cycle :

ETH在24美元的价格达到三个峰值的价格为4,000美元之后，很快下跌至1,300美元左右，ATH为4,800美元以上。根据以下潜在因素，我们预测，在本周期中，ETH价格将达到5,000美元：

After a substantial decline from a high of over $1,600 in early 2022 to a low of $1,000 in December 2022, BTC rebounded rapidly. In April 2024, it broke through the $50,000 mark and rose to a high of $47,000 in May. Afterwards, it encountered strong resistance and fluctuated at a high level for a period of time before finally breaking through the four-year resistance at $50,000 on July 18, 24.

从2022年初的高价下降了1,600美元以上的最低点，到2022年12月的1,000美元的低价之后，BTC迅速反弹。 2024年4月，它损失了50,000美元的大关，并在5月跌至47,000美元。之后，它遇到了强烈的抵抗力，并在一段时间内在高水平上波动，然后最终在24月18日7月18日以50,000美元的价格突破了四年抵抗。

As the most valuable cryptocurrency, BTC has attracted widespread attention from institutional investors. In April 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing of two BTC futures ETFs, setting the stage for the approval of spot ETFs, which are closely watched by the industry. Finally, on August 8, 24, the SEC approved the applications for BTC spot ETFs submitted by several institutions, including BlackRock, setting off a frenzy in the cryptocurrency market.

作为最有价值的加密货币，BTC引起了机构投资者的广泛关注。 2024年4月，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准了两个BTC期货ETF的上市，为批准现货ETF奠定了基础，该阶段是该行业密切关注的。最终，在8月8日，24日，SEC批准了包括贝莱德在内的几个机构提交的BTC现场ETF的申请，在加密货币市场中引发了疯狂的申请。

The approval of BTC spot ETFs marks a significant milestone in the integration of cryptocurrencies with traditional finance. It will allow institutional investors to easily invest in BTC through traditional financial channels, potentially bringing a massive influx of capital into the cryptocurrency market.

BTC斑点ETF的批准标志着加密货币与传统金融的整合是一个重要的里程碑。这将使机构投资者能够通过传统的金融渠道轻松投资于BTC，从而有可能将大量资本涌入加密货币市场。

Moreover, the approval of BTC spot ETFs is expected to accelerate the development of the cryptocurrency market and related technologies. It will also push for the introduction of relevant regulations to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the cryptocurrency industry.

此外，预计BTC斑点ETF的批准将加速加密货币市场和相关技术的发展。它还将推动引入相关法规，以确保加密货币行业的健康和可持续发展。

The approval of BTC spot ETFs is a crucial step in opening up the cryptocurrency market to broader participation and integration with the global financial system. It is an exciting development that has far-reaching implications for the future of cryptocurrencies and the

BTC Spot ETF的批准是开放加密货币市场以更广泛的参与和与全球金融体系的整合的关键步骤。这是一个令人兴奋的发展，对加密货币的未来和