以太坊（ETH）处于三阶段市场周期的第二阶段

根据分析师Abbé提供的图表和推文信息，以太坊（ETH）处于三阶段市场周期的第二阶段。

Analyst Abbé highlighted the second phase of a three-stage market cycle that begins with a corrective period, then a recovery phase, and finally, an impulsive phase of sharp upward price behavior.

分析师阿贝（Abbé）强调了三阶段市场周期的第二阶段，该周期从纠正阶段开始，然后是恢复阶段，最后是急剧上山行为的冲动阶段。

According to Abbé’s analysis, the current market cycle has already completed Phase 1 (Corrective) and entered Phase 2 (Recovery) since early 2023. Its monthly candlestick formation shows a consolidation phase in the form of a descending triangle, similar to the last cycle in 2019-2020.

根据Abbé的分析，自2023年初以来，当前的市场周期已经完成了第1阶段（纠正措施），并进入了第2阶段（恢复）。其每月的烛台形成显示了以下降三角形的形式进行的合并阶段，类似于2019 - 2020年的最后一个周期。

The analyst stated that the final shift into an impulsive phase (Phase 3) should occur as soon as the token closes a monthly candle above the crucial resistance at $3,000. In the previous cycle, the cryptocurrency underwent a similar structural breakout after its recovery phase, leading to a decisive rally that peaked above $4,800 in late 2021.

分析师指出，一旦代币关闭每月的蜡烛高于关键阻力，最终转变为冲动阶段（第3阶段）。在上一个周期中，加密货币在恢复阶段进行了类似的结构突破，导致决定性的集会在2021年末达到高于4,800美元的峰值。

(ETH Price Chart Credit: X Post)

（ETH价格图表信用：X POST）

Abbé anticipates a similar impulsive breakout in the current cycle. His chart projections suggest potential price levels reaching above $20,000 and beyond if the historical pattern continues.

Abbé预计在当前周期会出现类似的冲动突破。他的图表预测表明，如果历史模式继续下去，潜在的价格水平将达到20,000美元以上。

Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader further supports the bullish view shared by fellow analyst Abbé. According to Merlijn, Ethereum (ETH) is replicating its 2017 price action, setting the stage for a potentially explosive breakout.

加密分析师Merlijn交易者进一步支持了分析师Abbé共享的看涨观点。根据Merlijn的说法，以太坊（ETH）正在复制其2017年的价格行动，为潜在的爆炸性突破奠定了基础。

In a comparative chart shared on X, Merlijn highlights a “bar-for-bar” alignment between the token’s current 2025 weekly chart and its 2017 breakout structure. Both charts depict a decisive move above the 50-week moving average (50 MA) following a prolonged accumulation phase.

在X上共享的比较图表中，Merlijn突出了令牌当前的2025每周图表与其2017年分组结构之间的“棒”对齐。这两个图表都描绘了长时间的积累阶段之后的果断运动高于50周的移动平均线（50 mA）。

(ETH Price Chart Credit: X Post)

（ETH价格图表信用：X POST）

The chart showcases two nearly identical technical setups. In 2017, the altcoin broke out after reclaiming the 50 MA and consolidating slightly below major horizontal resistance. This move triggered a vertical rally that propelled the asset from around $10 to over $45 within a few weeks.

该图表显示了两个几乎相同的技术设置。 2017年，Altcoin在收回50 MA并巩固略低于主要水平阻力后爆发。此举引发了垂直集会，该集会在几周内将资产从约10美元推向了45美元以上。

As of June 2025, the ETH token is again approaching the same type of structure, trading near $2,800 with the 50 MA acting as dynamic support. The chart shows consolidation below horizontal resistance around $4,000, mirroring the final stage before the historic 2017 breakout.

截至2025年6月，ETH代币再次接近相同类型的结构，交易价格接近2,800美元，50 MA充当动态支持。该图表显示了在4,000美元左右的水平阻力下的整合，这反映了历史悠久的2017年突破之前的最后阶段。

Merlijn notes that while the patterns are similar, the current market contains significantly more liquidity and volume in trades, which could amplify any upward movement. He adds that the breakout may be explosive, not only due to technical similarities but also due to better market conditions. At this stage, the cryptocurrency has a “bigger engine” and “no brakes.”

Merlijn指出，尽管模式相似，但目前的市场包含更多的流动性和交易的数量，这可以扩大任何向上移动。他补充说，突破可能是爆炸性的，不仅是由于技术相似性，而且还因为市场状况更好。在此阶段，加密货币具有“更大的引擎”和“无刹车”。

According to on-chain metrics from IntoTheBlock, whale accumulation has increased significantly in the last 30 days, further supporting this bullish structure. Whales, defined as addresses with substantial ETH balances, have accumulated +2.05%. In contrast, investor-level wallets have reduced their supply by -2.70%, shifting the supply balance towards larger holders.

根据Intotheblock的链链指标，在过去的30天中，鲸鱼的积累显着增加，进一步支持了这种看涨的结构。鲸鱼定义为具有实质性余额的地址，累积了 +2.05％。相比之下，投资者级的钱包将其供应量减少了-2.70％，将供应平衡转移到了较大的持有人方面。

(ETH Historical Concentration Credit: IntoTheBlock)

（ETH历史浓度信用：intotheblock）

Participation by retail investors has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of +0.02%. This shift in ownership indicates that the larger market players, often viewed as "smart money," are displaying greater confidence and preparing for a potential breakout.

散户投资者的参与仍然相对稳定，略有增长 +0.02％。所有权的转变表明，较大的市场参与者通常被视为“智能货币”，正在表现出更大的信心，并为潜在的突破做准备。

This concentration of ETH supply in the hands of more aggressive traders has been linked to major price shifts in the past. It lends credence to the broader argument that Ethereum might be on the verge of entering a new impulsive phase.

在更具侵略性的交易者手中的这种ETH供应集中与过去的重大价格变化有关。它使以太坊可能处于进入新的冲动阶段的边缘的更广泛的论点使人相信。