能源是新货币

如果资源丰富，从再工业化到减缓气候变化等其他举措都是不可行的

The new national security map must identify areas of energy abundance and how to secure the resulting supply chains. Energy can be part of American “integrative power” in the international arena.

新的国家安全地图必须确定能源丰富的领域以及如何确保由此产生的供应链的安全。能源可以成为美国在国际舞台上“综合实力”的一部分。

“Energy is the new currency,” Derek Pew recently commented to me. The ability to generate large amounts of inexpensive energy is, of course, extremely critical for all sorts of digital industries, from mining bitcoin to running data centers. In addition, solutions to many problems and challenges in the physical world will require energy abundance—not rationing—to be addressed and solved. Energy as currency is directly tied to finished outputs. We are witnessing, in real time, the collapse of industrial production in Europe directly connected to prohibitively expensive energy costs. A large supply of inexpensive energy is absolutely necessary for countries coping with water challenges, climate mitigation measures, food security, and transport infrastructure. As John Sitilides concludes, “Energy abundance means greater domestic prosperity, industry, and quality of life … as well as global geopolitical resilience and diplomatic leverage.”

“能源是新货币，”德里克·皮尤最近对我评论道。当然，产生大量廉价能源的能力对于从开采比特币到运行数据中心的各种数字行业都极其重要。此外，解决物理世界中的许多问题和挑战将需要解决和解决能源充足（而不是配给）。能源作为货币与成品直接挂钩。我们正在实时目睹欧洲工业生产的崩溃，这与昂贵的能源成本直接相关。对于应对水资源挑战、气候缓解措施、粮食安全和交通基础设施的国家来说，大量廉价能源供应是绝对必要的。正如约翰·西蒂利德斯总结的那样，“能源丰富意味着更大的国内繁荣、工业和生活质量……以及全球地缘政治弹性和外交影响力。”

Over the last decade, proponents of what might be termed the “energy diet” argued that measures that forced reduction in energy use would spur measures for greater efficiency and innovation in the realm of “green” energy. The reality is that while some positive developments have emerged, the “green gap” between what the new approaches can deliver and the demands of energy-intensive, fourth industrial-revolution businesses cannot be entirely bridged. Moreover, politicians and influencers alike have not been successful in changing popular attitudes about consuming the fruits of a high-energy economy. This means that governments will continue to be guided by the “prosperity-legitimacy equation”: Their legitimacy will be directly connected to the extent they can continue to provide a stable, middle-class lifestyle within reach of their citizens.

在过去的十年中，所谓“能源饮食”的支持者认为，强制减少能源使用的措施将刺激“绿色”能源领域提高效率和创新的措施。现实情况是，虽然已经出现了一些积极的进展，但新方法所能提供的服务与能源密集型、第四次工业革命企业的需求之间的“绿色差距”无法完全弥合。此外，政治家和有影响力的人都未能成功改变公众对消费高能源经济成果的态度。这意味着政府将继续遵循“繁荣-合法性方程式”：它们的合法性将直接关系到它们能否继续为公民提供稳定的中产阶级生活方式。

If a country cannot generate sufficient energy on its own, it will either become dependent on an external source of supply or it will have to purchase the goods and services it requires from a provider that has access to affordable energy and can deliver them at an acceptable price. Data service providers, therefore, will seek to be located in places where energy is affordable and reliable. In some cases, nature determines this—such as access to geothermal energy. In other cases, nature’s capriciousness may be overridden by human deliberate action—for instance, the construction of a nuclear reactor.

如果一个国家无法自行产生足够的能源，那么它要么会依赖外部供应来源，要么必须从能够获得负担得起的能源并能够以可接受的价格交付的供应商那里购买所需的商品和服务。价格。因此，数据服务提供商将寻求位于能源负担得起且可靠的地方。在某些情况下，大自然决定了这一点——例如获取地热能。在其他情况下，大自然的反复无常可能会被人类故意的行为所推翻——例如建造核反应堆。

Of course, different types of energy exact different costs. Moving forward, if energy deprivation is not seen as a realistic strategy, then the emphasis will be on sources that do not contribute to further atmospheric emissions to try and mitigate the environmental and climactic impacts. Geothermal, hydroelectric, and tidal energy are only feasible in specific geographic areas. Wind and solar energy are not continuous in their output. To maintain a high energy economy, nuclear power and natural gas must be part of the mix. These realities contribute to what Judah Grunstein has described as a national security-green transition nexus.

当然，不同类型的能源的成本也不同。展望未来，如果能源匮乏不被视为现实的战略，那么重点将放在不会导致进一步大气排放的来源上，以试图减轻环境和气候影响。地热能、水力发电和潮汐能仅在特定地理区域可行。风能和太阳能的输出不是连续的。为了维持高能源经济，核电和天然气必须成为其中的一部分。这些现实促成了犹大·格伦斯坦所说的国家安全与绿色转型的关系。

This nexus operates at two key levels, both of which are directly tied to energy. The first is redefining national security from simply combating the kinetic threats and cyber actions of other states and non-state actors to seeing the health, energy, economic, and technological security of the nation as co-equal tasks. This means having the energy to power the health system, keep purification and mitigation systems functioning, even to energize the artificial intelligence-enhanced data centers attempting to assist humans in finding medical and technological fixes. The second is conceptualizing a new map that charts out the best way to guarantee sustained and stable access to the raw materials and necessary components we need. Low-carbon electricity sources require access to copper, uranium, lithium, cobalt, and tungsten, among other minerals; ability to manufacture or purchase concrete and steel at low prices; having access to components and machinery—not to mention the human capital in terms of researcher and the larger workforce.

这种联系在两个关键层面上运作，这两个层面都与能源直接相关。首先是重新定义国家安全，从简单地打击其他国家和非国家行为者的动态威胁和网络行动，转变为将国家的健康、能源、经济和技术安全视为同等的任务。这意味着拥有能量为卫生系统提供动力，保持净化和缓解系统正常运行，甚至为试图帮助人类寻找医疗和技术解决方案的人工智能增强数据中心提供能量。第二个是构思一个新地图，列出保证持续稳定地获得我们所需的原材料和必要组件的最佳方法。低碳电力来源需要获得铜、铀、锂、钴和钨等矿物；有能力以低价制造或购买混凝土和钢材；能够获得零部件和机械——更不用说研究人员和更多劳动力方面的人力资本了。

So securing supply chains and industrial centers, as well as cultivating workforce development——mean that the national security establishment has to be able to think, as Parag Khanna advised, in terms of “natural resource discoveries, infrastructures, demographic movements, and other shifts” in developing national security priorities. However, as Derek Reveron and I have warned, “the prevailing US national security ‘mental map’ in terms of envisioning regions does not overlay with the changes that have been occurring.”

因此，确保供应链和工业中心的安全，以及培养劳动力发展——意味着国家安全机构必须能够像帕拉格·卡纳（Parag Khanna）建议的那样，考虑“自然资源发现、基础设施、人口流动和其他变化” ”制定国家安全优先事项。然而，正如德里克·雷维隆和我所警告的那样，“美国现行的国家安全‘心理地图’在设想地区方面并未与正在发生的变化重叠。”

The energy-as-currency construct allows us to re-envision priorities for US national security along two lines of effort. The first is to determine the extent to which the United States wishes to depend on elongated and complicated supply chains that also provide a security rationale for its system of alliances. (One reason some US overseas partners are quietly so concerned about proposals for a greater US reliance on the hemisphere and to shift to an overt policy of nearshoring is the belief that allies who subsist under a framework of extended deterrence today may not be so vital for US security tomorrow, allowing for a retrenchment of US security guarantees.) But no matter how that map is drawn, the priority for the US military would be to keep open the most vital flows

能源作为货币的结构使我们能够沿着两条努力方向重新设想美国国家安全的优先事项。首先是确定美国希望在多大程度上依赖漫长而复杂的供应链，这也为其联盟体系提供了安全理由。 （一些美国海外伙伴悄悄地对美国更多地依赖西半球并转向公开的近岸政策的提议感到如此担忧，原因之一是他们相信，今天在延伸威慑框架下生存的盟友对于美国来说可能不再那么重要。明天的美国安全，允许缩减美国的安全保证。）但无论这张地图如何绘制，美国军方的首要任务将是保持最重要的流动开放