能源是新貨幣

如果資源豐富，從再工業化到減緩氣候變遷等其他措施都是不可行的

The new national security map must identify areas of energy abundance and how to secure the resulting supply chains. Energy can be part of American “integrative power” in the international arena.

新的國家安全地圖必須確定能源豐富的領域以及如何確保由此產生的供應鏈的安全。能源可以成為美國在國際舞台上「綜合實力」的一部分。

“Energy is the new currency,” Derek Pew recently commented to me. The ability to generate large amounts of inexpensive energy is, of course, extremely critical for all sorts of digital industries, from mining bitcoin to running data centers. In addition, solutions to many problems and challenges in the physical world will require energy abundance—not rationing—to be addressed and solved. Energy as currency is directly tied to finished outputs. We are witnessing, in real time, the collapse of industrial production in Europe directly connected to prohibitively expensive energy costs. A large supply of inexpensive energy is absolutely necessary for countries coping with water challenges, climate mitigation measures, food security, and transport infrastructure. As John Sitilides concludes, “Energy abundance means greater domestic prosperity, industry, and quality of life … as well as global geopolitical resilience and diplomatic leverage.”

「能源是新貨幣，」德里克·皮尤最近對我評論道。當然，產生大量廉價能源的能力對於從開採比特幣到運行資料中心的各種數位產業都極為重要。此外，解決物理世界中的許多問題和挑戰將需要解決和解決能源豐富（而不是配給）。能源作為貨幣與成品直接掛鉤。我們正在即時目睹歐洲工業生產的崩潰，這與昂貴的能源成本直接相關。對於應對水資源挑戰、氣候緩解措施、糧食安全和交通基礎設施的國家來說，大量廉價能源供應是絕對必要的。正如約翰·西蒂利德斯總結的那樣，“能源豐富意味著更大的國內繁榮、工業和生活品質……以及全球地緣政治彈性和外交影響力。”

Over the last decade, proponents of what might be termed the “energy diet” argued that measures that forced reduction in energy use would spur measures for greater efficiency and innovation in the realm of “green” energy. The reality is that while some positive developments have emerged, the “green gap” between what the new approaches can deliver and the demands of energy-intensive, fourth industrial-revolution businesses cannot be entirely bridged. Moreover, politicians and influencers alike have not been successful in changing popular attitudes about consuming the fruits of a high-energy economy. This means that governments will continue to be guided by the “prosperity-legitimacy equation”: Their legitimacy will be directly connected to the extent they can continue to provide a stable, middle-class lifestyle within reach of their citizens.

在過去的十年中，所謂「能源飲食」的支持者認為，強制減少能源使用的措施將刺激「綠色」能源領域提高效率和創新的措施。現實情況是，雖然已經出現了一些積極的進展，但新方法所能提供的服務與能源密集、第四次工業革命企業的需求之間的「綠色差距」無法完全彌合。此外，政治人物和有影響力的人都未能成功改變大眾對消費高能源經濟成果的態度。這意味著政府將繼續遵循「繁榮-合法性方程式」：它們的合法性將直接關係到它們能否繼續為公民提供穩定的中產階級生活方式。

If a country cannot generate sufficient energy on its own, it will either become dependent on an external source of supply or it will have to purchase the goods and services it requires from a provider that has access to affordable energy and can deliver them at an acceptable price. Data service providers, therefore, will seek to be located in places where energy is affordable and reliable. In some cases, nature determines this—such as access to geothermal energy. In other cases, nature’s capriciousness may be overridden by human deliberate action—for instance, the construction of a nuclear reactor.

如果一個國家無法自行產生足夠的能源，那麼它要么會依賴外部供應來源，要么必須從能夠獲得負擔得起的能源並能夠以可接受的價格交付的供應商那裡購買所需的商品和服務。 。因此，數據服務提供者將尋求位於能源負擔得起且可靠的地方。在某些情況下，大自然決定了這一點——例如獲取地熱能。在其他情況下，大自然的反覆無常可能會被人類故意的行為所推翻——例如建造核反應器。

Of course, different types of energy exact different costs. Moving forward, if energy deprivation is not seen as a realistic strategy, then the emphasis will be on sources that do not contribute to further atmospheric emissions to try and mitigate the environmental and climactic impacts. Geothermal, hydroelectric, and tidal energy are only feasible in specific geographic areas. Wind and solar energy are not continuous in their output. To maintain a high energy economy, nuclear power and natural gas must be part of the mix. These realities contribute to what Judah Grunstein has described as a national security-green transition nexus.

當然，不同類型的能源的成本也不同。展望未來，如果能源匱乏不被視為現實的策略，那麼重點將放在不會導致進一步大氣排放的來源上，以試圖減輕環境和氣候影響。地熱能、水力發電和潮汐能僅在特定地理區域可行。風能和太陽能的輸出不是連續的。為了維持高能源經濟，核電和天然氣必須成為其中的一部分。這些現實促成了猶大‧格倫斯坦所說的國家安全與綠色轉型的關係。

This nexus operates at two key levels, both of which are directly tied to energy. The first is redefining national security from simply combating the kinetic threats and cyber actions of other states and non-state actors to seeing the health, energy, economic, and technological security of the nation as co-equal tasks. This means having the energy to power the health system, keep purification and mitigation systems functioning, even to energize the artificial intelligence-enhanced data centers attempting to assist humans in finding medical and technological fixes. The second is conceptualizing a new map that charts out the best way to guarantee sustained and stable access to the raw materials and necessary components we need. Low-carbon electricity sources require access to copper, uranium, lithium, cobalt, and tungsten, among other minerals; ability to manufacture or purchase concrete and steel at low prices; having access to components and machinery—not to mention the human capital in terms of researcher and the larger workforce.

這種聯繫在兩個關鍵層面上運作，這兩個層面都與能源直接相關。首先是重新定義國家安全，從簡單打擊其他國家和非國家行為者的動態威脅和網路行動，轉變為將國家的健康、能源、經濟和技術安全視為同等的任務。這意味著擁有能量為衛生系統提供動力，保持淨化和緩解系統正常運行，甚至為試圖幫助人類尋找醫療和技術解決方案的人工智慧增強資料中心提供能量。第二個是構思一個新地圖，列出保證持續穩定地獲得我們所需的原料和必要組件的最佳方法。低碳電力來源需要取得銅、鈾、鋰、鈷和鎢等礦物；有能力以低價製造或購買混凝土和鋼材；能夠獲得零件和機械——更不用說研究人員和更多勞動力方面的人力資本了。

So securing supply chains and industrial centers, as well as cultivating workforce development——mean that the national security establishment has to be able to think, as Parag Khanna advised, in terms of “natural resource discoveries, infrastructures, demographic movements, and other shifts” in developing national security priorities. However, as Derek Reveron and I have warned, “the prevailing US national security ‘mental map’ in terms of envisioning regions does not overlay with the changes that have been occurring.”

因此，確保供應鏈和工業中心的安全，以及培養勞動力發展——意味著國家安全機構必須能夠像帕拉格·卡納（Parag Khanna）建議的那樣，考慮「自然資源發現、基礎設施、人口流動和其他變化」 ”制定國家安全優先事項。然而，正如德里克·雷維隆和我所警告的那樣，“美國現行的國家安全‘心理地圖’在設想地區方面並未與正在發生的變化重疊。”

The energy-as-currency construct allows us to re-envision priorities for US national security along two lines of effort. The first is to determine the extent to which the United States wishes to depend on elongated and complicated supply chains that also provide a security rationale for its system of alliances. (One reason some US overseas partners are quietly so concerned about proposals for a greater US reliance on the hemisphere and to shift to an overt policy of nearshoring is the belief that allies who subsist under a framework of extended deterrence today may not be so vital for US security tomorrow, allowing for a retrenchment of US security guarantees.) But no matter how that map is drawn, the priority for the US military would be to keep open the most vital flows

能源作為貨幣的結構使我們能夠沿著兩個努力方向重新設想美國國家安全的優先事項。首先是確定美國希望在多大程度上依賴漫長而複雜的供應鏈，這也為其聯盟體系提供了安全理由。 （一些美國海外夥伴悄悄地對美國更多地依賴西半球並轉向公開的近岸政策的提議感到如此擔憂，原因之一是他們相信，今天在延伸威懾框架下生存的盟友對於美國來說可能不再那麼重要。