Web3 基礎設施賭場：為什麼我們過度建設基礎設施層

Web3 生態系統通常被視為網際網路的下一個基礎設施。然而，以太坊白皮書發布近10年後

The Web3 ecosystem is often touted as the next generation of the internet infrastructure. However, nearly a decade after the release of the Ethereum white paper, we have very few mainstream applications running on that infrastructure. At the same time, we continue to see the emergence of new infrastructure building blocks everywhere: L1, L2, and L3 blockchains, rollups, ZK layers, DeFi protocols, and many others. While we might be building the future of the internet with Web3, there is little doubt that we are overbuilding the infrastructure layer.

Web3 生態系統經常被譽為下一代互聯網基礎設施。然而，在以太坊白皮書發布近十年後，我們在該基礎設施上運行的主流應用程式非常少。同時，我們繼續看到新的基礎設施構建塊隨處出現：L1、L2 和 L3 區塊鏈、rollups、ZK 層、DeFi 協議等等。雖然我們可能正在利用 Web3 建立網路的未來，但毫無疑問，我們正在過度建造基礎設施層。

Currently, the ratio between infrastructure and applications in Web3 has no parallels in the history of technology markets. Why is this happening? Simply because it’s profitable to build infrastructure in Web3.

目前，Web3 中基礎設施和應用程式之間的比例在技術市場的歷史上是史無前例的。為什麼會發生這種情況？只是因為在 Web3 中建立基礎設施是有利可圖的。

Web3 defies some of the conventional market adoption patterns in tech infrastructure, creating both a rapid path to profitability and unique risks for its evolution. To explore this thesis further, we must understand how value is typically created in infrastructure technology trends, how Web3 diverges from this norm, and the risks posed by overbuilding infrastructure.

Web3 挑戰了技術基礎設施中的一些傳統市場採用模式，既創造了一條快速獲利之路，也為其發展帶來了獨特的風險。為了進一步探討本論文，我們必須了解基礎設施技術趨勢中通常如何創造價值、Web3 如何偏離這項規範，以及過度建設基礎設施所帶來的風險。

The Infrastructure-Application Value Creation Cycle in Tech Markets

技術市場中的基礎設施-應用價值創造週期

Traditionally, value creation in tech markets fluctuates between the infrastructure and application layers, finding a dynamic balance between the two.

傳統上，科技市場的價值創造在基礎設施層和應用層之間波動，在兩者之間找到動態平衡。

Take the Web1 era as an example. Companies such as Cisco, IBM, and Sun Microsystems powered the infrastructure layer of the internet. But, even during those early days, applications like Netscape and AOL emerged to capture significant value. The Web2 era was driven by cloud infrastructure, which then triggered SaaS and social platforms, catalyzing the creation of new cloud infrastructure.

以Web1時代為例。思科、IBM 和 Sun Microsystems 等公司為網際網路的基礎架構層提供支援。但是，即使在早期，Netscape 和 AOL 等應用程式的出現也獲得了巨大的價值。 Web2時代是由雲端基礎設施推動的，雲端基礎設施隨後引發了SaaS和社交平台，催化了新的雲端基礎設施的創建。

More recently, trends like generative AI began as an infrastructure play with model builders, but applications such as ChatGPT, NotebookLM, and Perplexity quickly captured momentum. This, in turn, drove the creation of new infrastructure to support a new generation of AI applications — a cycle that is likely to continue for several iterations.

最近，生成式 AI 等趨勢開始於模型建構者的基礎設施遊戲，但 ChatGPT、NotebookLM 和 Perplexity 等應用程式很快就抓住了勢頭。這反過來又推動了新基礎設施的創建，以支援新一代人工智慧應用程式——這個循環可能會持續多次迭代。

This constant value-creation balance between application and infrastructure layers has been a hallmark of technology markets, making Web3 a notable anomaly. But why is this imbalance so evident in Web3?

應用程式層和基礎設施層之間這種持續的價值創造平衡一直是技術市場的標誌，這使得 Web3 成為一個值得注意的異常現象。但為什麼這種不平衡在 Web3 中如此明顯呢？

The Infrastructure Casino

基礎設施賭場

The main difference between Web3 and its predecessors is the rapid path to capital formation and liquidity in infrastructure projects. In Web3, infrastructure projects typically launch tokens that become tradable on exchanges, providing substantial liquidity for investors, teams, and communities. This contrasts with traditional markets, where investor liquidity is typically realized through company acquisitions or public offerings, both of which usually take considerable time. Most venture capital firms operate on a ten-year investment cycle or longer. While rapid capital formation is one of the benefits of Web3, it often misaligns team incentives, discouraging long-term value creation.

Web3 與其前身的主要區別在於基礎設施專案的資本形成和流動性的快速路徑。在 Web3 中，基礎設施項目通常會推出可在交易所交易的代幣，為投資者、團隊和社區提供大量流動性。這與傳統市場形成鮮明對比，在傳統市場中，投資者的流動性通常是透過公司收購或公開發行來實現的，而這兩者通常都需要相當長的時間。大多數創投公司的投資週期為十年或更長。雖然快速資本形成是 Web3 的好處之一，但它常常會導致團隊激勵失調，阻礙長期價值創造。

This "infrastructure casino" is a risky pattern in Web3 because it incentivizes builders and investors to prioritize infrastructure projects over applications. After all, who needs applications when L2 tokens can achieve multibillion-dollar valuations in just a few years with minimal usage? This approach presents several challenges, and many of them are subtle and difficult to address.

這種「基礎設施賭場」是 Web3 中的危險模式，因為它會激勵建構者和投資者優先考慮基礎設施項目而不是應用程式。畢竟，當 L2 代幣能夠在短短幾年內以最少的使用量實現數十億美元的估值時，誰還需要應用程式？這種方法提出了一些挑戰，其中許多挑戰是微妙且難以解決的。

The Challenges of Overbuilding Web3 Infrastructure

過度建造 Web3 基礎設施的挑戰

1) Building Without Adoption Feedback

1）在沒有採用回饋的情況下進行構建

Perhaps the most significant risk of overbuilding infrastructure in Web3 is the lack of market feedback from applications built on top of that infrastructure. Applications represent the ultimate expression of consumer and business use cases and regularly guide new use cases in infrastructure. Without application feedback, Web3 risks building infrastructure for “imaginary” use cases that are disconnected from market reality.

也許 Web3 中過度建構基礎設施的最大風險是缺乏來自建立在該基礎設施之上的應用程式的市場回饋。應用程式代表了消費者和企業用例的最終表達，並定期指導基礎設施中的新用例。如果沒有應用程式回饋，Web3 就有可能為與市場現實脫節的「想像」用例建立基礎設施。

2) Extreme Liquidity Fragmentation

2）流動性極度片段化

The launch of new Web3 infrastructure ecosystems is one of the main contributors to liquidity fragmentation in the space. New blockchains often require billions of dollars to bootstrap liquidity and attract tier 1 DeFi projects to their ecosystems. Over the past few months, the creation of new L1 and L2 blockchains has outpaced the influx of new capital into the market. As a result, capital in Web3 is more fragmented than ever, creating significant adoption challenges.

新的 Web3 基礎設施生態系統的推出是該領域流動性碎片化的主要原因之一。新的區塊鏈通常需要數十億美元來引導流動性並吸引一級 DeFi 專案進入其生態系統。在過去的幾個月裡，新的 L1 和 L2 區塊鏈的創建速度超過了新資本流入市場的速度。因此，Web3 的資本比以往任何時候都更加分散，從而帶來了巨大的採用挑戰。

3) Inevitable, Increasing Complexity

3）不可避免，複雜性不斷增加

Have you tried using some of the wallets, dApps, and bridges for newer blockchains? The user experience is typically difficult. Tech infrastructure naturally grows more complex and sophisticated over time. Applications built on that infrastructure typically abstract away this complexity for end users. However, in Web3 — where there is a lack of application development — users are left to interact with increasingly complex blockchains, leading to friction in adoption.

您是否嘗試過使用一些錢包、dApp 和橋接器來建立新的區塊鏈？使用者體驗通常很困難。隨著時間的推移，技術基礎設施自然會變得更加複雜和完善。基於此基礎架構建置的應用程式通常會為最終用戶消除這種複雜性。然而，在缺乏應用程式開發的 Web3 中，用戶必須與日益複雜的區塊鏈進行交互，導致採用方面的摩擦。

4) Limited Developer Communities

4）有限的開發者社區

If Web3 infrastructure has outpaced capital formation, then the challenge is even greater when it comes to developer communities. dApps are built by developers, and creating new developer communities is always a challenge. Most new Web3 infrastructure projects operate with very limited developer communities because they pull talent from the same existing pool, which is simply not large enough to sustain the vast amount of infrastructure being built.

如果 Web3 基礎設施的發展速度超過了資本形成的速度，那麼開發者社群面臨的挑戰就更大了。 dApp 由開發人員構建，創建新的開發人員社群始終是一項挑戰。大多數新的 Web3 基礎設施項目的開發人員社群非常有限，因為它們從同一個現有人才庫中汲取人才，而現有人才庫根本不足以維持正在建造的大量基礎設施。

5) Widening Gap with Web2

5）與Web2的差距不斷擴大

A side effect of overbuilding infrastructure in Web3 — without app adoption — is the widening adoption gap with

在 Web3 中過度建立基礎設施（不採用應用程式）的一個副作用是與應用程式的採用差距不斷擴大