Web3 基础设施赌场：为什么我们过度建设基础设施层

Web3 生态系统通常被视为互联网的下一个基础设施。然而，以太坊白皮书发布近10年后

The Web3 ecosystem is often touted as the next generation of the internet infrastructure. However, nearly a decade after the release of the Ethereum white paper, we have very few mainstream applications running on that infrastructure. At the same time, we continue to see the emergence of new infrastructure building blocks everywhere: L1, L2, and L3 blockchains, rollups, ZK layers, DeFi protocols, and many others. While we might be building the future of the internet with Web3, there is little doubt that we are overbuilding the infrastructure layer.

Web3 生态系统经常被誉为下一代互联网基础设施。然而，在以太坊白皮书发布近十年后，我们在该基础设施上运行的主流应用程序非常少。与此同时，我们继续看到新的基础设施构建块随处出现：L1、L2 和 L3 区块链、rollups、ZK 层、DeFi 协议等等。虽然我们可能正在利用 Web3 构建互联网的未来，但毫无疑问，我们正在过度建设基础设施层。

Currently, the ratio between infrastructure and applications in Web3 has no parallels in the history of technology markets. Why is this happening? Simply because it’s profitable to build infrastructure in Web3.

目前，Web3 中基础设施和应用程序之间的比例在技术市场的历史上是史无前例的。为什么会发生这种情况？仅仅是因为在 Web3 中构建基础设施是有利可图的。

Web3 defies some of the conventional market adoption patterns in tech infrastructure, creating both a rapid path to profitability and unique risks for its evolution. To explore this thesis further, we must understand how value is typically created in infrastructure technology trends, how Web3 diverges from this norm, and the risks posed by overbuilding infrastructure.

Web3 挑战了技术基础设施中的一些传统市场采用模式，既创造了一条快速盈利之路，也为其发展带来了独特的风险。为了进一步探讨本论文，我们必须了解基础设施技术趋势中通常如何创造价值、Web3 如何偏离这一规范，以及过度建设基础设施带来的风险。

The Infrastructure-Application Value Creation Cycle in Tech Markets

技术市场中的基础设施-应用价值创造周期

Traditionally, value creation in tech markets fluctuates between the infrastructure and application layers, finding a dynamic balance between the two.

传统上，科技市场的价值创造在基础设施层和应用层之间波动，在两者之间找到动态平衡。

Take the Web1 era as an example. Companies such as Cisco, IBM, and Sun Microsystems powered the infrastructure layer of the internet. But, even during those early days, applications like Netscape and AOL emerged to capture significant value. The Web2 era was driven by cloud infrastructure, which then triggered SaaS and social platforms, catalyzing the creation of new cloud infrastructure.

以Web1时代为例。思科、IBM 和 Sun Microsystems 等公司为互联网的基础设施层提供支持。但是，即使在早期，Netscape 和 AOL 等应用程序的出现也获得了巨大的价值。 Web2时代是由云基础设施推动的，云基础设施随后引发了SaaS和社交平台，催化了新的云基础设施的创建。

More recently, trends like generative AI began as an infrastructure play with model builders, but applications such as ChatGPT, NotebookLM, and Perplexity quickly captured momentum. This, in turn, drove the creation of new infrastructure to support a new generation of AI applications — a cycle that is likely to continue for several iterations.

最近，生成式 AI 等趋势开始于模型构建者的基础设施游戏，但 ChatGPT、NotebookLM 和 Perplexity 等应用程序很快就抓住了势头。这反过来又推动了新基础设施的创建，以支持新一代人工智能应用程序——这个循环可能会持续多次迭代。

This constant value-creation balance between application and infrastructure layers has been a hallmark of technology markets, making Web3 a notable anomaly. But why is this imbalance so evident in Web3?

应用程序层和基础设施层之间这种持续的价值创造平衡一直是技术市场的标志，这使得 Web3 成为一个值得注意的异常现象。但为什么这种不平衡在 Web3 中如此明显呢？

The Infrastructure Casino

基础设施赌场

The main difference between Web3 and its predecessors is the rapid path to capital formation and liquidity in infrastructure projects. In Web3, infrastructure projects typically launch tokens that become tradable on exchanges, providing substantial liquidity for investors, teams, and communities. This contrasts with traditional markets, where investor liquidity is typically realized through company acquisitions or public offerings, both of which usually take considerable time. Most venture capital firms operate on a ten-year investment cycle or longer. While rapid capital formation is one of the benefits of Web3, it often misaligns team incentives, discouraging long-term value creation.

Web3 与其前身的主要区别在于基础设施项目的资本形成和流动性的快速路径。在 Web3 中，基础设施项目通常会推出可在交易所交易的代币，为投资者、团队和社区提供大量流动性。这与传统市场形成鲜明对比，在传统市场中，投资者的流动性通常是通过公司收购或公开发行来实现的，而这两者通常都需要相当长的时间。大多数风险投资公司的投资周期为十年或更长时间。虽然快速资本形成是 Web3 的好处之一，但它常常会导致团队激励失调，阻碍长期价值创造。

This "infrastructure casino" is a risky pattern in Web3 because it incentivizes builders and investors to prioritize infrastructure projects over applications. After all, who needs applications when L2 tokens can achieve multibillion-dollar valuations in just a few years with minimal usage? This approach presents several challenges, and many of them are subtle and difficult to address.

这种“基础设施赌场”是 Web3 中的一种危险模式，因为它会激励构建者和投资者优先考虑基础设施项目而不是应用程序。毕竟，当 L2 代币能够在短短几年内以最少的使用量实现数十亿美元的估值时，谁还需要应用程序呢？这种方法提出了一些挑战，其中许多挑战是微妙且难以解决的。

The Challenges of Overbuilding Web3 Infrastructure

过度建设 Web3 基础设施的挑战

1) Building Without Adoption Feedback

1）在没有采用反馈的情况下进行构建

Perhaps the most significant risk of overbuilding infrastructure in Web3 is the lack of market feedback from applications built on top of that infrastructure. Applications represent the ultimate expression of consumer and business use cases and regularly guide new use cases in infrastructure. Without application feedback, Web3 risks building infrastructure for “imaginary” use cases that are disconnected from market reality.

也许 Web3 中过度构建基础设施的最大风险是缺乏来自构建在该基础设施之上的应用程序的市场反馈。应用程序代表了消费者和企业用例的最终表达，并定期指导基础设施中的新用例。如果没有应用程序反馈，Web3 就有可能为与市场现实脱节的“想象”用例构建基础设施。

2) Extreme Liquidity Fragmentation

2）流动性极度碎片化

The launch of new Web3 infrastructure ecosystems is one of the main contributors to liquidity fragmentation in the space. New blockchains often require billions of dollars to bootstrap liquidity and attract tier 1 DeFi projects to their ecosystems. Over the past few months, the creation of new L1 and L2 blockchains has outpaced the influx of new capital into the market. As a result, capital in Web3 is more fragmented than ever, creating significant adoption challenges.

新的 Web3 基础设施生态系统的推出是该领域流动性碎片化的主要原因之一。新的区块链通常需要数十亿美元来引导流动性并吸引一级 DeFi 项目进入其生态系统。在过去的几个月里，新的 L1 和 L2 区块链的创建速度超过了新资本流入市场的速度。因此，Web3 的资本比以往任何时候都更加分散，从而带来了巨大的采用挑战。

3) Inevitable, Increasing Complexity

3）不可避免，复杂性不断增加

Have you tried using some of the wallets, dApps, and bridges for newer blockchains? The user experience is typically difficult. Tech infrastructure naturally grows more complex and sophisticated over time. Applications built on that infrastructure typically abstract away this complexity for end users. However, in Web3 — where there is a lack of application development — users are left to interact with increasingly complex blockchains, leading to friction in adoption.

您是否尝试过使用一些钱包、dApp 和桥接器来构建新的区块链？用户体验通常很困难。随着时间的推移，技术基础设施自然会变得更加复杂和完善。基于该基础设施构建的应用程序通常会为最终用户消除这种复杂性。然而，在缺乏应用程序开发的 Web3 中，用户不得不与日益复杂的区块链进行交互，从而导致采用方面的摩擦。

4) Limited Developer Communities

4）有限的开发者社区

If Web3 infrastructure has outpaced capital formation, then the challenge is even greater when it comes to developer communities. dApps are built by developers, and creating new developer communities is always a challenge. Most new Web3 infrastructure projects operate with very limited developer communities because they pull talent from the same existing pool, which is simply not large enough to sustain the vast amount of infrastructure being built.

如果 Web3 基础设施的发展速度超过了资本形成速度，那么开发者社区面临的挑战就更大了。 dApp 由开发人员构建，创建新的开发人员社区始终是一个挑战。大多数新的 Web3 基础设施项目的开发人员社区非常有限，因为它们从同一个现有人才库中汲取人才，而现有人才库根本不足以维持正在建设的大量基础设施。

5) Widening Gap with Web2

5）与Web2的差距不断扩大

A side effect of overbuilding infrastructure in Web3 — without app adoption — is the widening adoption gap with

在 Web3 中过度建设基础设施（不采用应用程序）的一个副作用是与应用程序的采用差距不断扩大