儘管美國製造數據疲軟，美聯儲的流動性計劃和強大的公司收入保持股票和加密貨幣

儘管美國製造數據疲軟，美聯儲的流動性計劃和強大的公司收入仍保持股票和加密貨幣。

The S&P 500 reached its peak on February 19 and has since struggled to reclaim the 5,800 level, a support that had held for four months. Despite persistent pressure from US trade disputes with Canada and Mexico, as well as the imposition of new tariffs affecting nearly every major economic region, equities have demonstrated notable resilience.

標準普爾500指數於2月19日達到頂峰，此後一直在努力收回5,800級，這是四​​個月的支持。儘管美國與加拿大和墨西哥的貿易爭端持續壓力，以及對幾乎每個主要經濟區域的新關稅徵收，但股票表現出顯著的韌性。

According to a recent report by Chinese state media, the United States has quietly initiated trade negotiations with China. While China officially maintains a 125% retaliatory tariff on US imports, it has granted waivers for sectors such as ethane, semiconductors, and certain pharmaceuticals. In return, the United States has partially exempted automakers from new tariffs. These actions suggest that both sides are gradually making concessions.

根據中國州媒體的最新報告，美國已經悄悄地與中國進行了貿易談判。儘管中國正式對美國進口商品維持了125％的報復性關稅，但它已為乙烷，半導體和某些藥品等部門豁免。作為回報，美國已部分免除汽車製造商的新關稅。這些行動表明雙方都逐漸做出讓步。

There is a reasonable possibility that the S&P 500 established a bottom at 4,835 on April 7, with further gains from the current 5,635 level remaining plausible. The stock market has responded positively to robust first-quarter earnings, as companies adapt to tariffs by relocating production outside China or expanding operations within the United States.

合理的可能性是，標準普爾500指數在4月7日建立了一個4,835的底部，而目前的5,635級剩下的距離也有可能進一步增長。由於公司通過在中國境外搬遷或擴大美國境內的業務來適應關稅，因此股市對穩健的第一季度收益做出了積極的回應。

For instance, Microsoft reported a 13.2% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by higher margins and strong demand for artificial intelligence. Similarly, Meta exceeded earnings and revenue expectations on April 30. These results have alleviated concerns about a potential AI bubble or the risk that the trade war could force companies to reduce investment.

例如，微軟報告說，在較高的利潤率和對人工智能的需求強勁的推動下，收入同比增長13.2％。同樣，META超過了4月30日的收益和收入預期。這些結果減輕了人們對潛在的AI泡沫或貿易戰可能迫使公司減少投資的風險的擔憂。

Rather than focusing on the recent decline in US PMI manufacturing data—which reached a five-month low in April—market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Following a year of balance sheet reduction, the Fed is now considering asset purchases to help ease selling pressure.

Market參與者並沒有關注美國PMI製造數據最近下降（4月達到五個月低點），而是密切監視美聯儲的下一個政策行動。在減少資產負債表的一年之後，美聯儲現在正在考慮購買資產以幫助緩解銷售壓力。

An increase in liquidity is typically favorable for risk-oriented assets. Therefore, even if a full decoupling does not occur, cryptocurrencies could still benefit from a more supportive macroeconomic environment.

流動性的增加通常有利於面向風險的資產。因此，即使沒有發生完整的解耦，加密貨幣仍然可以從更具支持性的宏觀經濟環境中受益。

Despite the short-term correlation, the cryptocurrency market has outperformed equities in recent months. Since March, the total crypto market capitalization has risen by 8.5%, while the S&P 500 has declined by 5.3%. Over a six-month period, this divergence becomes even more pronounced: the total crypto market cap is up 29%, while the S&P 500 is down 2%. It is therefore inaccurate to suggest that these markets move in perfect synchrony, particularly when viewed over longer timeframes.

儘管有短期相關性，但最近幾個月，加密貨幣市場表現出色。自3月以來，加密貨幣總資本化增長了8.5％，而標準普爾500指數下降了5.3％。在六個月的時間裡，這種差異變得更加明顯：總加密市值增長了29％，而標準普爾500指數下降了2％。因此，建議這些市場以完美的同步發展，尤其是在更長的時間範圍內觀看時。

It is still premature to declare a definitive bottom for the S&P 500 or to conclude that the trade war has been resolved. An economic recession would likely have negative implications for both markets. However, the current strength in equities indicates reduced risk aversion among investors. For the time being, the elevated correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks may represent the most favorable scenario.

宣布標準普爾500標準普爾500的確定底層或得出結論已經解決了貿易戰爭的底層。經濟衰退可能會對兩個市場產生負面影響。但是，股票當前的實力表明投資者的風險厭惡減少。目前，加密貨幣與股票之間的相關性高度可能代表最有利的情況。