尽管美国制造数据疲软，美联储的流动性计划和强大的公司收入保持股票和加密货币

尽管美国制造数据疲软，美联储的流动性计划和强大的公司收入仍保持股票和加密货币。

The S&P 500 reached its peak on February 19 and has since struggled to reclaim the 5,800 level, a support that had held for four months. Despite persistent pressure from US trade disputes with Canada and Mexico, as well as the imposition of new tariffs affecting nearly every major economic region, equities have demonstrated notable resilience.

标准普尔500指数于2月19日达到顶峰，此后一直在努力收回5,800级，这是四​​个月的支持。尽管美国与加拿大和墨西哥的贸易争端持续压力，以及对几乎每个主要经济区域的新关税征收，但股票表现出显着的韧性。

According to a recent report by Chinese state media, the United States has quietly initiated trade negotiations with China. While China officially maintains a 125% retaliatory tariff on US imports, it has granted waivers for sectors such as ethane, semiconductors, and certain pharmaceuticals. In return, the United States has partially exempted automakers from new tariffs. These actions suggest that both sides are gradually making concessions.

根据中国州媒体的最新报告，美国已经悄悄地与中国进行了贸易谈判。尽管中国正式对美国进口商品维持了125％的报复性关税，但它已为乙烷，半导体和某些药品等部门豁免。作为回报，美国已部分免除汽车制造商的新关税。这些行动表明双方都逐渐做出让步。

There is a reasonable possibility that the S&P 500 established a bottom at 4,835 on April 7, with further gains from the current 5,635 level remaining plausible. The stock market has responded positively to robust first-quarter earnings, as companies adapt to tariffs by relocating production outside China or expanding operations within the United States.

合理的可能性是，标准普尔500指数在4月7日建立了一个4,835的底部，而目前的5,635级剩下的距离也有可能进一步增长。由于公司通过在中国境外搬迁或扩大美国境内的业务来适应关税，因此股市对稳健的第一季度收益做出了积极的回应。

For instance, Microsoft reported a 13.2% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by higher margins and strong demand for artificial intelligence. Similarly, Meta exceeded earnings and revenue expectations on April 30. These results have alleviated concerns about a potential AI bubble or the risk that the trade war could force companies to reduce investment.

例如，微软报告说，在较高的利润率和对人工智能的需求强劲的推动下，收入同比增长13.2％。同样，META超过了4月30日的收益和收入预期。这些结果减轻了人们对潜在的AI泡沫或贸易战可能迫使公司减少投资的风险的担忧。

Rather than focusing on the recent decline in US PMI manufacturing data—which reached a five-month low in April—market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Following a year of balance sheet reduction, the Fed is now considering asset purchases to help ease selling pressure.

Market参与者并没有关注美国PMI制造数据最近下降（4月达到五个月低点），而是密切监视美联储的下一个政策行动。在减少资产负债表的一年之后，美联储现在正在考虑购买资产以帮助缓解销售压力。

An increase in liquidity is typically favorable for risk-oriented assets. Therefore, even if a full decoupling does not occur, cryptocurrencies could still benefit from a more supportive macroeconomic environment.

流动性的增加通常有利于面向风险的资产。因此，即使没有发生完整的解耦，加密货币仍然可以从更具支持性的宏观经济环境中受益。

Despite the short-term correlation, the cryptocurrency market has outperformed equities in recent months. Since March, the total crypto market capitalization has risen by 8.5%, while the S&P 500 has declined by 5.3%. Over a six-month period, this divergence becomes even more pronounced: the total crypto market cap is up 29%, while the S&P 500 is down 2%. It is therefore inaccurate to suggest that these markets move in perfect synchrony, particularly when viewed over longer timeframes.

尽管有短期相关性，但最近几个月，加密货币市场表现出色。自3月以来，加密货币总资本化增长了8.5％，而标准普尔500指数下降了5.3％。在六个月的时间里，这种差异变得更加明显：总加密市值增长了29％，而标准普尔500指数下降了2％。因此，建议这些市场以完美的同步发展，尤其是在更长的时间范围内观看时。

It is still premature to declare a definitive bottom for the S&P 500 or to conclude that the trade war has been resolved. An economic recession would likely have negative implications for both markets. However, the current strength in equities indicates reduced risk aversion among investors. For the time being, the elevated correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks may represent the most favorable scenario.

宣布标准普尔500标准普尔500的确定底层或得出结论已经解决了贸易战争的底层。经济衰退可能会对两个市场产生负面影响。但是，股票当前的实力表明投资者的风险厌恶减少。目前，加密货币与股票之间的相关性高度可能代表最有利的情况。