瑞銀預測美元持續走軟

全球金融服務公司瑞銀集團首席投資辦公室週五發布報告稱，美元可能面臨進一步貶值。

UBS predicts further depreciation of the U.S. dollar due to narrowing interest rate differentials, ongoing U.S. fiscal deficit concerns, and a shift in global central bank strategies. Despite a brief rally, UBS has downgraded the U.S. dollar to its Least Preferred status, while upgrading the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar.

瑞銀預計，由於利差縮小、美國持續的財政赤字擔憂以及全球央行策略的轉變，美元將進一步貶值。儘管短暫上漲，瑞銀仍將美元評級下調至最不受歡迎的地位，同時上調歐元、英鎊和澳元的評級。

UBS Forecasts Continued Weakening of US Dollar

瑞銀預測美元持續走軟

Banking giant UBS has predicted a further depreciation of the U.S. dollar. In a report published on Friday, the firm’s Chief Investment Office stated that the dollar is likely to face continued weakness over the next few months due to several key factors.

銀行業巨頭瑞銀集團預測美元將進一步貶值。該公司首席投資辦公室在周五發布的一份報告中表示，由於幾個關鍵因素，美元在未來幾個月可能面臨持續疲軟。

“We still expect the dollar to decline further in the coming months for several reasons,” the report reads.

報告稱：“出於多種原因，我們仍然預計美元在未來幾個月將進一步下跌。”

Despite a brief rally following revised second-quarter GDP growth figures — raised to an annualized rate of 3% from 2.8% — and stronger consumer spending data, the U.S. dollar remains vulnerable, UBS noted.

瑞銀指出，儘管第二季 GDP 成長數據修正後（年化成長率從 2.8% 上調至 3%）以及消費者支出數據走強，美元短暫反彈，但美元仍脆弱。

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six foreign currencies, has decreased by 3% over the past month, largely remaining in the lower end of its range since the beginning of 2023. However, some analysts anticipated a potential rally in the dollar.

衡量美元兌一籃子六種外幣價值的美元指數 (DXY) 在過去一個月下跌了 3%，基本上保持在 2023 年初以來的區間下限。

“The balance of risks for the USD appears skewed to the downside,” the report explained, adding that even positive inflation or labor market data may not deter the Federal Reserve from considering a rate cut in September, especially if the indicators fall below expectations.

報告解釋道，“美元的風險平衡似乎偏於下行”，並補充說，即使通膨或勞動力市場數據積極，也可能不會阻止聯準會考慮在 9 月降息，特別是如果指標低於預期。

According to UBS, several factors are poised to put further pressure on the dollar. “Interest rate differentials look set to narrow,” the financial services firm stated. While the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates, central banks such as the Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank are likely to adopt more gradual approaches.

瑞銀表示，有幾個因素可能會給美元帶來進一步的壓力。該金融服務公司表示：“利差看起來將會縮小。”儘管預計聯準會將繼續降息，但瑞士央行和歐洲央行等央行可能會採取更漸進的做法。

Furthermore, UBS highlighted that “the U.S. fiscal deficit remains a concern,” especially in terms of the long-term risks for the currency.

此外，瑞銀強調，“美國財政赤字仍然令人擔憂”，特別是就貨幣的長期風險而言。

In response to these dynamics, the UBS Chief Investment Office has adjusted its global strategy: “Against this backdrop, we recently shifted the U.S. dollar to Least Preferred in our global strategy and moved the euro, the British pound, and the Australian dollar to Most Preferred.”

針對這些動態，瑞銀首席投資辦公室調整了全球策略：「在此背景下，我們最近將美元在全球策略中調整為最不受歡迎的貨幣，將歐元、英鎊和澳元調整為最不受歡迎的貨幣。

“We expect all of them to regain ground against the U.S. dollar over our forecast horizon,” the report adds.

報告補充說：“我們預計所有這些貨幣兌美元匯率都會在我們的預測範圍內收復失地。”

What do you think about UBS’s forecast for the U.S. dollar’s depreciation and the potential rise of other currencies? Let us know in the comments section below.

您如何看待瑞銀對美元貶值和其他貨幣潛在升值的預測？請在下面的評論部分告訴我們。