瑞银预测美元持续走软

全球金融服务公司瑞银集团首席投资办公室周五发布报告称，美元可能面临进一步贬值。

UBS predicts further depreciation of the U.S. dollar due to narrowing interest rate differentials, ongoing U.S. fiscal deficit concerns, and a shift in global central bank strategies. Despite a brief rally, UBS has downgraded the U.S. dollar to its Least Preferred status, while upgrading the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar.

瑞银预计，由于利差缩小、美国持续的财政赤字担忧以及全球央行策略的转变，美元将进一步贬值。尽管短暂上涨，瑞银仍将美元评级下调至最不受欢迎的地位，同时上调欧元、英镑和澳元的评级。

UBS Forecasts Continued Weakening of US Dollar

瑞银预测美元持续走软

Banking giant UBS has predicted a further depreciation of the U.S. dollar. In a report published on Friday, the firm’s Chief Investment Office stated that the dollar is likely to face continued weakness over the next few months due to several key factors.

银行业巨头瑞银集团预测美元将进一步贬值。该公司首席投资办公室在周五发布的一份报告中表示，由于几个关键因素，美元在未来几个月可能面临持续疲软。

“We still expect the dollar to decline further in the coming months for several reasons,” the report reads.

报告称：“出于多种原因，我们仍然预计美元在未来几个月将进一步下跌。”

Despite a brief rally following revised second-quarter GDP growth figures — raised to an annualized rate of 3% from 2.8% — and stronger consumer spending data, the U.S. dollar remains vulnerable, UBS noted.

瑞银指出，尽管第二季度 GDP 增长数据修正后（年化增长率从 2.8% 上调至 3%）以及消费者支出数据走强，美元出现短暂反弹，但美元仍然脆弱。

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six foreign currencies, has decreased by 3% over the past month, largely remaining in the lower end of its range since the beginning of 2023. However, some analysts anticipated a potential rally in the dollar.

衡量美元兑一篮子六种外币价值的美元指数 (DXY) 在过去一个月下跌了 3%，基本上保持在 2023 年初以来的区间下限。一些分析师预计美元可能会上涨。

“The balance of risks for the USD appears skewed to the downside,” the report explained, adding that even positive inflation or labor market data may not deter the Federal Reserve from considering a rate cut in September, especially if the indicators fall below expectations.

报告解释道，“美元的风险平衡似乎偏于下行”，并补充说，即使通胀或劳动力市场数据积极，也可能不会阻止美联储考虑在 9 月份降息，特别是如果指标低于预期。

According to UBS, several factors are poised to put further pressure on the dollar. “Interest rate differentials look set to narrow,” the financial services firm stated. While the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates, central banks such as the Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank are likely to adopt more gradual approaches.

瑞银表示，有几个因素可能会给美元带来进一步的压力。该金融服务公司表示：“利差看起来将会缩小。”尽管预计美联储将继续降息，但瑞士央行和欧洲央行等央行可能会采取更为渐进的做法。

Furthermore, UBS highlighted that “the U.S. fiscal deficit remains a concern,” especially in terms of the long-term risks for the currency.

此外，瑞银强调，“美国财政赤字仍然令人担忧”，特别是就货币的长期风险而言。

In response to these dynamics, the UBS Chief Investment Office has adjusted its global strategy: “Against this backdrop, we recently shifted the U.S. dollar to Least Preferred in our global strategy and moved the euro, the British pound, and the Australian dollar to Most Preferred.”

针对这些动态，瑞银首席投资办公室调整了全球策略：“在此背景下，我们最近将美元在全球策略中调整为最不受欢迎的货币，将欧元、英镑和澳元调整为最不受欢迎的货币。”首选。”

“We expect all of them to regain ground against the U.S. dollar over our forecast horizon,” the report adds.

报告补充道：“我们预计所有这些货币兑美元汇率都会在我们的预测范围内收复失地。”

What do you think about UBS’s forecast for the U.S. dollar’s depreciation and the potential rise of other currencies? Let us know in the comments section below.

您如何看待瑞银对美元贬值和其他货币潜在升值的预测？请在下面的评论部分告诉我们。