跨境加密貨幣的趨勢和驅動因素和Stablecoin流動

加密貨幣的價值根據市場力量波動，與任何特定資產無關。

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has assessed trends and drivers of cross-border cryptocurrency and stablecoin flows in a paper published this week.

國際定居銀行（BIS）在本週發表的一篇論文中評估了跨境加密貨幣和Stablecoin流動的趨勢和驅動因素。

Cryptocurrencies’ values fluctuate based on market forces and are not tied to any specific asset.

加密貨幣的價值根據市場力量波動，與任何特定資產無關。

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value by having their market value pegged to an external reference, typically fiat currency.

Stablecoins是加密貨幣，旨在通過將其市場價值固定到外部參考（通常是法定貨幣）來維持穩定的價值。

As their popularity grows, such digital currencies have become of increasing interest and sometimes concern to governments and regulators across the world – both for their potential use cases but also for their implications for financial stability, among other reasons.

隨著其知名度的增長，這種數字貨幣已成為全球政府和監管機構的興趣，有時甚至是其潛在用例的關注，而且還涉及其對財務穩定性的影響。

Cross-border flows of the two biggest cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin and Ether – and the two biggest stablecoins (by market capitalisation) – Tether and USD Coin – between 184 countries from 2017 to 2024 were investigated.

從2017年至2024年，在184個國家之間，兩種最大的加密貨幣（比特幣和以太幣）的跨境流以及兩個最大的穩定幣（按市值計算）。

The 39-page analysis – titled ‘DeFiying gravity? An empirical analysis of cross-border Bitcoin, Ether and stablecoin flows’, published last week (8 May) as a BIS working paper – is co-authored by BIS Innovation Hub Eurosystem centre head Raphael Auer, BIS principal economist Ulf Lewrick and BIS Innovation Hub Europe Centre adviser Jan Paulick.

39頁的分析 - 標題為'Defiying Gravity？上週（5月8日）作為BIS工作文件出版的跨境比特幣，以太和Stablecoin Flow的經驗分析是由BIS Innovation Hub Eurosystem Center中心負責人Raphael Auer，BIS首席經濟學家Ulf Lewrick和Bis Innovation Hub Europe Hub Europe Centure Center Adviser Advient撰寫的。

‘Our findings highlight speculative motives and global funding conditions as key drivers of native cryptoasset flows,’ the authors state. ‘Transactional motives play a significant role in cross-border flows for stablecoins and low-value Bitcoin transactions, where we further find a strong association with higher costs of traditional remittances.’

作者指出：“我們的發現突出了投機性動機和全球資金條件，這是本地加密貨物流的關鍵驅動因素。” “交易動機在穩定幣和低價值比特幣交易的跨境流動中起著重要作用，我們進一步發現了與傳統匯款成本更高的牢固關聯。”

RELATED ARTICLE Crypto data tracking platform built by European central banks – a news story (6 October 2023) on a data tracking platform developed as a proof-of-concept by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Innovation Hub and two European central banks (Deutsche Bundesbank and De Nederlandsche Bank)

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‘Defying traditional frictions’

“違抗傳統摩擦”

Bitcoin, Ether, Tether and USD Coin flows are described as ‘substantial’, peaking at a total of about $2.6 trillion (about £1.95 trillion) in 2021, with stablecoins accounting for almost half the volume. Transaction volumes fell to $1.8 trillion in 2023 but have since ‘resurged’.

2021年，比特幣，以太，繫繩和美元硬幣流被描述為“實質性”，總計約2.6萬億美元（約19.5萬億英鎊），stablecoins的數量幾乎為一半。交易量下降到2023年的1.8萬億美元，但此後“重新恢復”。

‘Geographical distance curbs cross-border crypto flows far less than it does traditional financial flows. Indeed, cryptoassets used in decentralised networks appear to largely defy traditional frictions in capital flows,’ the authors write.

'地理距離路緣跨境加密貨幣的流量遠低於傳統的財務流量。實際上，分散網絡中使用的加密貨物似乎在很大程度上反抗了資本流中的傳統摩擦。 ”

‘Conversely, a tightening of global funding conditions correlates with a decline in cross-border crypto flows, indicative of the use of cryptoassets as a risky investment,’ they continue. ‘At the same time, we also find evidence of stablecoins and low-value Bitcoin payments being used for transactions in the context of remittances. This is indicative of the multifaceted use cases of different cryptoassets.’

他們繼續說：“相反，全球資金條件的收緊與跨境加密流的下降有關，這表明將加密貨物用作冒險的投資。” “與此同時，我們還發現在匯款背景下用於交易的穩定幣和低價值比特幣支付的證據。這表明了不同加密集群的多方面用例。

‘Our analysis indicates that policy measures designed to dampen traditional financial flows may have limited impact on constraining cross-border crypto activity. Yet, as cryptoassets become more integrated with mainstream finance, understanding the systemic risks and potential contagion effects between these markets will be essential for policymakers and market participants alike.’

'我們的分析表明，旨在抑制傳統財務流動的政策措施可能對約束跨境加密活動的影響有限。然而，隨著加密貨幣與主流金融的融合，了解這些市場之間的系統性風險和潛在的傳染效應對於決策者和市場參與者都至關重要。

‘At the same time, the socio-economic implications of increased crypto adoption, particularly in emerging market and developing countries, warrant a deeper examination. This includes assessing the impact on financial inclusion and economic stability, and the potential for cryptoassets to serve as a hedge against local currency volatility and weakness.’

“與此同時，加密採用率提高的社會經濟含義，尤其是在新興市場和發展中國家，需要進行更深入的檢查。這包括評估對金融包容性和經濟穩定的影響，以及加密貨幣的潛力，以抵抗當地貨幣的波動和弱點。”

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Macro implications ‘poorly understood’

宏觀含義“理解不佳”

‘Cryptoassets are increasingly being integrated into exchange-traded funds, futures and other conventional financial instruments,’ the authors set out in their introduction. ‘However, despite total market capitalisation exceeding that of large national stock markets, the macroeconomic implications of cryptoassets – including their underlying use cases and risks during market turmoil – remain poorly understood.’

作者在介紹中說：“加密貨幣越來越多地整合到交易所交易的資金，期貨和其他常規金融工具中。” “但是，儘管總計市值超過了大型國家股票市場，但隱腳群的宏觀經濟含義（包括它們的基本用例和市場動盪期間的風險）仍然知之甚少。”

‘A key challenge is that cryptoassets operate on decentralised infrastructure transcending national boundaries, unlike conventional financial networks governed by intermediary institutions and established regulations. In this context, new types of often elusive intermediaries have emerged in crypto markets,’ they continue, going on to explain their focus on cross-border transactions.

'一個主要挑戰是，與由中介機構和既定法規管理的常規金融網絡不同，加密貨幣會在超越國界的分散基礎設施上運作。在這種情況下，加密貨幣市場中出現了新型的經常難以捉摸的中介機構，“他們繼續，繼續解釋他們對跨境交易的關注。

The US, UK and major emerging markets are described as ‘representing key nodes in the different crypto networks,’ while the authors also document ‘significant’ geographical shifts in cross-border activity, particularly from China to other major emerging markets such as India, Indonesia and Turkey ‘amid tighter crypto regulation in China.’

美國，英國和主要新興市場被描述為“代表不同加密網絡中的關鍵節點”，而作者還記錄了跨境活動中的“重大”地理位置轉變，尤其是從中國到其他主要新興市場，例如印度，印度尼西亞和土耳其，例如中國的嚴格加密法規。 ”

Stablecoins are often described as ideal payment mechanisms for remittances and cross-border disbursements – for example, migrant workers sending money to family members back ‘home’. The paper leans into this facet, stating that the ‘high costs of remittance payments through traditional financial intermediaries are associated with significantly larger cross-border flows in stablecoins and low-value BTC [Bitcoin] payments from

穩定幣通常被描述為用於匯款和跨境支出的理想付款機制 - 例如，移民工人向家人匯款回到“家”。該論文傾向於這個方面，指出“通過傳統金融中介機構的高匯款付款成本與Stablecoins和低價值BTC [比特幣]付款的跨境流相關。