跨境加密货币的趋势和驱动因素和Stablecoin流动

加密货币的价值根据市场力量波动，与任何特定资产无关。

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has assessed trends and drivers of cross-border cryptocurrency and stablecoin flows in a paper published this week.

国际定居银行（BIS）在本周发表的一篇论文中评估了跨境加密货币和Stablecoin流动的趋势和驱动因素。

Cryptocurrencies’ values fluctuate based on market forces and are not tied to any specific asset.

加密货币的价值根据市场力量波动，与任何特定资产无关。

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value by having their market value pegged to an external reference, typically fiat currency.

Stablecoins是加密货币，旨在通过将其市场价值固定到外部参考（通常是法定货币）来维持稳定的价值。

As their popularity grows, such digital currencies have become of increasing interest and sometimes concern to governments and regulators across the world – both for their potential use cases but also for their implications for financial stability, among other reasons.

随着其知名度的增长，这种数字货币已成为全球政府和监管机构的兴趣，有时甚至是其潜在用例的关注，而且还涉及其对财务稳定性的影响。

Cross-border flows of the two biggest cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin and Ether – and the two biggest stablecoins (by market capitalisation) – Tether and USD Coin – between 184 countries from 2017 to 2024 were investigated.

从2017年至2024年，在184个国家之间，两种最大的加密货币（比特币和以太币）的跨境流以及两个最大的稳定币（按市值计算）。

The 39-page analysis – titled ‘DeFiying gravity? An empirical analysis of cross-border Bitcoin, Ether and stablecoin flows’, published last week (8 May) as a BIS working paper – is co-authored by BIS Innovation Hub Eurosystem centre head Raphael Auer, BIS principal economist Ulf Lewrick and BIS Innovation Hub Europe Centre adviser Jan Paulick.

39页的分析 - 标题为'Defiying Gravity？上周（5月8日）作为BIS工作文件出版的跨境比特币，以太和Stablecoin Flow的经验分析是由BIS Innovation Hub Eurosystem Center中心负责人Raphael Auer，BIS首席经济学家Ulf Lewrick和Bis Innovation Hub Europe Hub Europe Centure Center Adviser Advient撰写的。

‘Our findings highlight speculative motives and global funding conditions as key drivers of native cryptoasset flows,’ the authors state. ‘Transactional motives play a significant role in cross-border flows for stablecoins and low-value Bitcoin transactions, where we further find a strong association with higher costs of traditional remittances.’

作者指出：“我们的发现突出了投机性动机和全球资金条件，这是本地加密货物流的关键驱动因素。” “交易动机在稳定币和低价值比特币交易的跨境流动中起着重要作用，我们进一步发现了与传统汇款成本更高的牢固关联。”

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‘Defying traditional frictions’

“违抗传统摩擦”

Bitcoin, Ether, Tether and USD Coin flows are described as ‘substantial’, peaking at a total of about $2.6 trillion (about £1.95 trillion) in 2021, with stablecoins accounting for almost half the volume. Transaction volumes fell to $1.8 trillion in 2023 but have since ‘resurged’.

2021年，比特币，以太，系绳和美元硬币流被描述为“实质性”，总计约2.6万亿美元（约19.5万亿英镑），stablecoins的数量几乎为一半。交易量下降到2023年的1.8万亿美元，但此后“重新恢复”。

‘Geographical distance curbs cross-border crypto flows far less than it does traditional financial flows. Indeed, cryptoassets used in decentralised networks appear to largely defy traditional frictions in capital flows,’ the authors write.

'地理距离路缘跨境加密货币的流量远低于传统的财务流量。实际上，分散网络中使用的加密货物似乎在很大程度上反抗了资本流中的传统摩擦。”

‘Conversely, a tightening of global funding conditions correlates with a decline in cross-border crypto flows, indicative of the use of cryptoassets as a risky investment,’ they continue. ‘At the same time, we also find evidence of stablecoins and low-value Bitcoin payments being used for transactions in the context of remittances. This is indicative of the multifaceted use cases of different cryptoassets.’

他们继续说：“相反，全球资金条件的收紧与跨境加密流的下降有关，这表明将加密货物用作冒险的投资。” “与此同时，我们还发现在汇款背景下用于交易的稳定币和低价值比特币支付的证据。这表明了不同加密集群的多方面用例。

‘Our analysis indicates that policy measures designed to dampen traditional financial flows may have limited impact on constraining cross-border crypto activity. Yet, as cryptoassets become more integrated with mainstream finance, understanding the systemic risks and potential contagion effects between these markets will be essential for policymakers and market participants alike.’

'我们的分析表明，旨在抑制传统财务流动的政策措施可能对约束跨境加密活动的影响有限。然而，随着加密货币与主流金融的融合，了解这些市场之间的系统性风险和潜在的传染效应对于决策者和市场参与者都至关重要。

‘At the same time, the socio-economic implications of increased crypto adoption, particularly in emerging market and developing countries, warrant a deeper examination. This includes assessing the impact on financial inclusion and economic stability, and the potential for cryptoassets to serve as a hedge against local currency volatility and weakness.’

“与此同时，加密采用率提高的社会经济含义，尤其是在新兴市场和发展中国家，需要进行更深入的检查。这包括评估对金融包容性和经济稳定的影响，以及加密货币的潜力，以抵抗当地货币的波动和弱点。”

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Macro implications ‘poorly understood’

宏观含义“理解不佳”

‘Cryptoassets are increasingly being integrated into exchange-traded funds, futures and other conventional financial instruments,’ the authors set out in their introduction. ‘However, despite total market capitalisation exceeding that of large national stock markets, the macroeconomic implications of cryptoassets – including their underlying use cases and risks during market turmoil – remain poorly understood.’

作者在介绍中说：“加密货币越来越多地整合到交易所交易的资金，期货和其他常规金融工具中。” “但是，尽管总计市值超过了大型国家股票市场，但隐脚群的宏观经济含义（包括它们的基本用例和市场动荡期间的风险）仍然知之甚少。”

‘A key challenge is that cryptoassets operate on decentralised infrastructure transcending national boundaries, unlike conventional financial networks governed by intermediary institutions and established regulations. In this context, new types of often elusive intermediaries have emerged in crypto markets,’ they continue, going on to explain their focus on cross-border transactions.

'一个主要挑战是，与由中介机构和既定法规管理的常规金融网络不同，加密货币会在超越国界的分散基础设施上运作。在这种情况下，加密货币市场中出现了新型的经常难以捉摸的中介机构，“他们继续，继续解释他们对跨境交易的关注。

The US, UK and major emerging markets are described as ‘representing key nodes in the different crypto networks,’ while the authors also document ‘significant’ geographical shifts in cross-border activity, particularly from China to other major emerging markets such as India, Indonesia and Turkey ‘amid tighter crypto regulation in China.’

美国，英国和主要新兴市场被描述为“代表不同加密网络中的关键节点”，而作者还记录了跨境活动中的“重大”地理位置转变，尤其是从中国到其他主要新兴市场，例如印度，印度尼西亚和土耳其，例如中国的严格加密法规。”

Stablecoins are often described as ideal payment mechanisms for remittances and cross-border disbursements – for example, migrant workers sending money to family members back ‘home’. The paper leans into this facet, stating that the ‘high costs of remittance payments through traditional financial intermediaries are associated with significantly larger cross-border flows in stablecoins and low-value BTC [Bitcoin] payments from

稳定币通常被描述为用于汇款和跨境支出的理想付款机制 - 例如，移民工人向家人汇款回到“家”。该论文倾向于这个方面，指出“通过传统金融中介机构的高汇款付款成本与Stablecoins和低价值BTC [比特币]付款的跨境流相关。