根據K33分析師的說法，這次是不同的

這位古老的格言在諸如標準普爾500標準普爾500年的較舊市場中有一些優點，與11月相比，5月至10月之間的平均表現較弱

Analysts at K33 argue that this time is different, and a "hold in May and stay" strategy is preferred over the "sell in May and walk away" mantra that crypto has inherited from traditional markets.

K33的分析師認為，這次是不同的，而“五月和住宿”策略比“五月出售並走開了”的咒語是加密貨幣從傳統市場繼承的。

The old adage has some merit in older markets like the S&P 500, which tends to show weaker average performance between May and October compared to November through April. However, it still tends to be positive, just with lower returns and higher volatility over extended time frames.

古老的格言在諸如標準普爾500指數之類的較舊市場中有一些優點，與11月至11月相比，在5月至10月之間的平均表現往往較弱。但是，它仍然往往是積極的，僅在延長的時間範圍內回報率較低，波動性較高。

While this seasonal impact has also become popular in crypto, trader and former NYSE Arca market maker Eric Crown noted last month that the start of May has seen the beginning of a significant decline in 50% of bitcoin's much shorter 14-year observable trading history. A 50/50 toss-up isn't particularly helpful to participants, but four of those declines coming in the past four years perhaps explain their increased confidence in the mantra.

儘管這種季節性影響在加密貨幣中也很受歡迎，但交易員和前紐約證券交易所ARCA銷售員埃里克·克朗（Eric Crown）上個月指出，5月初，比特幣可觀察到的14年可觀察的交易歷史的50％顯著下降。 50/50的折騰對參與者並不特別有用，但是過去四年來的四個下降也許可以解釋他們對咒語的增強信心。

May seasonality. Image: Eric Crown.

五月的季節性。圖像：Eric Crown。

"There are few fully satisfying explanations as to why we have observed this seasonality of returns, but the vacation effect and tax deadlines may represent one key performance dampener," K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman noted in a Tuesday report. "Further, summers generally tend to see fewer catalysts than the rest of the year."

K33 Research Vetle Lunde和高級分析師David david Zimmerman在周二的報告中指出：“關於為什麼我們觀察到這種回報的季節性，幾乎沒有令人滿意的解釋，但是度假效果和稅收期限可能代表了一個關鍵的績效阻尼器。” “此外，薩默斯通常往往比今年剩餘時間看到的催化劑更少。”

However, things are shaping up to be different this time around, the K33 analysts argue, with plenty of President Trump-driven catalysts on the horizon in the summer of 2025. "While Trump's overall market impact is an annoyance, one has to accept the market for what it is," they said. "Right now, it is a broad Trump trade; his moves impact risk tolerance and skew forward expectations. Onwards, crypto is about to face multiple Trump-driven positive developments, whereas equities may face a tariff repeat — setting the stage for relative bitcoin strength in the months ahead."

但是，K33分析師認為，這次的情況正在變得不同，其中大量由特朗普驅動的催化劑在2025年夏季都在地平線上。 “目前，這是一個廣泛的特朗普貿易；他的舉動會影響風險承受能力，並偏向於前進的期望。加密貨幣即將面臨多個特朗普驅動的積極發展，而股票可能會面臨關稅重複 - 在未來幾個月內為相對比特幣的實力奠定了基礎。”

Trump's first crypto-related executive order came within a few days of his inauguration in January, creating a "Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets" chaired by White House crypto czar David Sacks — tasked with developing a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins and work to evaluate the creation of a "strategic national digital assets stockpile." The group was given a 180-day deadline to submit a comprehensive report on this task, due on July 22.

特朗普的第一個與加密貨幣相關的行政命令在一月份就職典禮後的幾天之內就出現了，創建了一個由白宮加密沙皇大衛·戴維·薩克斯（Crypto Crypto Czar David Sacks）主持的“總統工作組”，其任務是開髮用於數字資產的聯邦監管框架，包括Stablecoins，包括StableCoins和包括創建“戰略國家數字資產庫存”的工程。該小組的截止日期為180天，以提交有關該任務的全面報告，該報告於7月22日到期。

However, Trump accelerated this work on March 6, signing another executive order to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established from the approximate 200,000 BTC ($19 billion) already owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil proceedings, minus those that still need to be returned to victims of crime.

然而，特朗普於3月6日加速了這項工作，簽署了另一項行政命令，以創建一個美國戰略比特幣儲備，該命令是根據已被聯邦政府已經擁有的大約20萬BTC（190億美元）確定的，該儲備金已被刑事或民事訴訟中的一部分被沒收，減去仍然需要返回受害者犯罪的人。

Additionally, Trump directed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided they have no incremental costs to American taxpayers.

此外，特朗普指示財政部長Scott Bessent and Commerce部長Howard Lutnick制定預算中立的策略來獲取額外的比特幣，只要他們對美國納稅人沒有增量成本。

The executive order also established a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, consisting of digital assets other than bitcoin forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings. However, the government will not acquire additional assets for the stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture procedures.

行政命令還建立了美國數字資產庫存，該資產由刑事或民事訴訟中沒收的比特幣以外的數字資產組成。但是，政府將不會為庫存的額外資產獲得通過沒收程序獲得的資產。

Federal agencies were scheduled to submit reports by April 5 outlining their authority to transfer digital assets to the reserve. Details on budget-neutral acquisition strategies were then expected 60 days after the executive order, around May 5, when Bessent was due to deliver an evaluation of the legal and investment considerations for the reserve.

聯邦機構計劃在4月5日之前提交報告，概述其將數字資產轉移到保護區的權力。然後，預計在5月5日左右的行政命令後60天，預計預算中立收購策略的詳細信息將在貝斯特（Bessent）左右對儲備金的法律和投資注意事項進行評估。

But those deadlines have now come and gone without any public announcements of their findings. "The 60-day deadline for the Treasury’s evaluation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve passed without a public announcement, leaving the timeline and details unclear," Lunde and Zimmerman said. "Findings from the report might represent a significant valve of volatility in the weeks to come."

但是，這些截止日期已經來了，沒有任何公開公開的發現。倫德和齊默爾曼說：“財政部對戰略比特幣儲備的評估的60天截止日期沒有公開宣布，這使時間表和細節不清楚。” “該報告的發現可能代表未來幾週的大量波動。”

On Tuesday, New Hampshire became the first state to pass a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" bill, and other states, including Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and Texas, are also considering similar legislation.

週二，新罕布什爾州成為第一個通過“戰略比特幣儲備”法案的州，以及包括亞利桑那州，伊利諾伊州，馬里蘭州，密歇根州和德克薩斯州在內的其他州也正在考慮類似的立法。

Heavier Trump catalysts on the horizon

較重的特朗普催化劑即將到來

Trump's tariff announcements hit both traditional and crypto markets hard between February and early April, before a 90-day tariff pause on most countries offered relief that has continued into May.

特朗普的關稅公告在2月至4月初在傳統和加密貨幣市場上均持續了大多數國家，大多數國家 /地區的關稅停頓暫停，這已經持續到5月。

"A tariff postponement means one thing — the topic will resurface with all its horrifying glory in the midst of the summer," the K33 analysts warned. "The likelihood of markets re-experiencing the April chaos is thus relatively high, forcing market participants into risk-averse positioning."

K33分析師警告說：“關稅推遲意味著一件事 - 這個話題將在夏季中間以其所有令人恐懼的榮耀重新出現。” “因此，重新體驗四月混亂的市場的可能性相對較高，從而迫使市場參與者處於規避風險的位置。”

However, they argued that bitcoin proved robust during April's drawdown, with the S&P 500's deepest down days outpacing the foremost cryptocurrency — a very rare feat of lower BTC beta during periods of market turmoil that cooled correlations. "The aforementioned balance of a potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve vs. the potential negative company-specific

但是，他們認為比特幣在四月的縮減期間證明了強勁的，標準普爾500指數最深的下降天數超過了最重要的加密貨幣 - 在市場動盪時期，低BTC beta的一項非常罕見的壯舉是非常罕見的壯舉。 “潛在的戰略比特幣儲備與潛在的負面公司特定的平衡