根据K33分析师的说法，这次是不同的

这位古老的格言在诸如标准普尔500标准普尔500年的较旧市场中有一些优点，与11月相比，5月至10月之间的平均表现较弱

Analysts at K33 argue that this time is different, and a "hold in May and stay" strategy is preferred over the "sell in May and walk away" mantra that crypto has inherited from traditional markets.

K33的分析师认为，这次是不同的，而“五月和住宿”策略比“五月出售并走开了”的咒语是加密货币从传统市场继承的。

The old adage has some merit in older markets like the S&P 500, which tends to show weaker average performance between May and October compared to November through April. However, it still tends to be positive, just with lower returns and higher volatility over extended time frames.

古老的格言在诸如标准普尔500指数之类的较旧市场中有一些优点，与11月至11月相比，在5月至10月之间的平均表现往往较弱。但是，它仍然往往是积极的，仅在延长的时间范围内回报率较低，波动性较高。

While this seasonal impact has also become popular in crypto, trader and former NYSE Arca market maker Eric Crown noted last month that the start of May has seen the beginning of a significant decline in 50% of bitcoin's much shorter 14-year observable trading history. A 50/50 toss-up isn't particularly helpful to participants, but four of those declines coming in the past four years perhaps explain their increased confidence in the mantra.

尽管这种季节性影响在加密货币中也很受欢迎，但交易员和前纽约证券交易所ARCA销售员埃里克·克朗（Eric Crown）上个月指出，5月初，比特币可观察到的14年可观察的交易历史的50％显着下降。 50/50的折腾对参与者并不特别有用，但是过去四年来的四个下降也许可以解释他们对咒语的增强信心。

May seasonality. Image: Eric Crown.

五月的季节性。图像：Eric Crown。

"There are few fully satisfying explanations as to why we have observed this seasonality of returns, but the vacation effect and tax deadlines may represent one key performance dampener," K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman noted in a Tuesday report. "Further, summers generally tend to see fewer catalysts than the rest of the year."

K33 Research Vetle Lunde和高级分析师David david Zimmerman在周二的报告中指出：“关于为什么我们观察到这种回报的季节性，几乎没有令人满意的解释，但是度假效果和税收期限可能代表了一个关键的绩效阻尼器。” “此外，萨默斯通常往往比今年剩余时间看到的催化剂更少。”

However, things are shaping up to be different this time around, the K33 analysts argue, with plenty of President Trump-driven catalysts on the horizon in the summer of 2025. "While Trump's overall market impact is an annoyance, one has to accept the market for what it is," they said. "Right now, it is a broad Trump trade; his moves impact risk tolerance and skew forward expectations. Onwards, crypto is about to face multiple Trump-driven positive developments, whereas equities may face a tariff repeat — setting the stage for relative bitcoin strength in the months ahead."

但是，K33分析师认为，这次的情况正在变得不同，其中大量由特朗普驱动的催化剂在2025年夏季都在地平线上。 “目前，这是一个广泛的特朗普贸易；他的举动会影响风险承受能力，并偏向于前进的期望。加密货币即将面临多个特朗普驱动的积极发展，而股票可能会面临关税重复 - 在未来几个月内为相对比特币的实力奠定了基础。”

Trump's first crypto-related executive order came within a few days of his inauguration in January, creating a "Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets" chaired by White House crypto czar David Sacks — tasked with developing a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins and work to evaluate the creation of a "strategic national digital assets stockpile." The group was given a 180-day deadline to submit a comprehensive report on this task, due on July 22.

特朗普的第一个与加密货币相关的行政命令在一月份就职典礼后的几天之内就出现了，创建了一个由白宫加密沙皇大卫·戴维·萨克斯（Crypto Crypto Czar David Sacks）主持的“总统工作组”，其任务是开发用于数字资产的联邦监管框架，包括Stablecoins，包括StableCoins和包括创建“战略国家数字资产库存”的工程。该小组的截止日期为180天，以提交有关该任务的全面报告，该报告于7月22日到期。

However, Trump accelerated this work on March 6, signing another executive order to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established from the approximate 200,000 BTC ($19 billion) already owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil proceedings, minus those that still need to be returned to victims of crime.

然而，特朗普于3月6日加速了这项工作，签署了另一项行政命令，以创建一个美国战略比特币储备，该命令是根据已被联邦政府已经拥有的大约20万BTC（190亿美元）确定的，该储备金已被刑事或民事诉讼中的一部分被没收，减去仍然需要返回受害者犯罪的人。

Additionally, Trump directed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided they have no incremental costs to American taxpayers.

此外，特朗普指示财政部长Scott Bessent and Commerce部长Howard Lutnick制定预算中立的策略来获取额外的比特币，只要他们对美国纳税人没有增量成本。

The executive order also established a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, consisting of digital assets other than bitcoin forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings. However, the government will not acquire additional assets for the stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture procedures.

行政命令还建立了美国数字资产库存，该资产由刑事或民事诉讼中没收的比特币以外的数字资产组成。但是，政府将不会为库存的额外资产获得通过没收程序获得的资产。

Federal agencies were scheduled to submit reports by April 5 outlining their authority to transfer digital assets to the reserve. Details on budget-neutral acquisition strategies were then expected 60 days after the executive order, around May 5, when Bessent was due to deliver an evaluation of the legal and investment considerations for the reserve.

联邦机构计划在4月5日之前提交报告，概述其将数字资产转移到保护区的权力。然后，预计在5月5日左右的行政命令后60天，预计预算中立收购策略的详细信息将在贝斯特（Bessent）左右对储备金的法律和投资注意事项进行评估。

But those deadlines have now come and gone without any public announcements of their findings. "The 60-day deadline for the Treasury’s evaluation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve passed without a public announcement, leaving the timeline and details unclear," Lunde and Zimmerman said. "Findings from the report might represent a significant valve of volatility in the weeks to come."

但是，这些截止日期已经来了，没有任何公开公开的发现。伦德和齐默尔曼说：“财政部对战略比特币储备的评估的60天截止日期没有公开宣布，这使时间表和细节不清楚。” “该报告的发现可能代表未来几周的大量波动。”

On Tuesday, New Hampshire became the first state to pass a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" bill, and other states, including Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and Texas, are also considering similar legislation.

周二，新罕布什尔州成为第一个通过“战略比特币储备”法案的州，以及包括亚利桑那州，伊利诺伊州，马里兰州，密歇根州和德克萨斯州在内的其他州也正在考虑类似的立法。

Heavier Trump catalysts on the horizon

较重的特朗普催化剂即将到来

Trump's tariff announcements hit both traditional and crypto markets hard between February and early April, before a 90-day tariff pause on most countries offered relief that has continued into May.

特朗普的关税公告在2月至4月初在传统和加密货币市场上均持续了大多数国家，大多数国家 /地区的关税停顿暂停，这已经持续到5月。

"A tariff postponement means one thing — the topic will resurface with all its horrifying glory in the midst of the summer," the K33 analysts warned. "The likelihood of markets re-experiencing the April chaos is thus relatively high, forcing market participants into risk-averse positioning."

K33分析师警告说：“关税推迟意味着一件事 - 这个话题将在夏季中间以其所有令人恐惧的荣耀重新出现。” “因此，重新体验四月混乱的市场的可能性相对较高，从而迫使市场参与者处于规避风险的位置。”

However, they argued that bitcoin proved robust during April's drawdown, with the S&P 500's deepest down days outpacing the foremost cryptocurrency — a very rare feat of lower BTC beta during periods of market turmoil that cooled correlations. "The aforementioned balance of a potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve vs. the potential negative company-specific

但是，他们认为比特币在四月的缩减期间证明了强劲的，标准普尔500指数最深的下降天数超过了最重要的加密货币 - 在市场动荡时期，低BTC beta的一项非常罕见的壮举是非常罕见的壮举。 “潜在的战略比特币储备与潜在的负面公司特定的平衡