加密投资者的故事时间：氦气，彭德尔和寻找叙事的艺术

作者：拜伦·吉利亚姆（Byron Gilliam）

"The social goal of skillful investing should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance that loom over our future." —John Maynard Keynes, famous economist

“熟练投资的社会目标应该是击败时间和无知的黑暗力量，这在我们的未来中迫在眉睫。” - 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes），著名的经济学家

Story time for crypto investors

加密投资者的故事时间

Despite the large numbers involved, investing is generally considered to be more of an art than a science.

尽管涉及大量数量，但通常认为投资更多是一种艺术而不是科学。

"The selection of common stocks is a difficult art," Benjamin Graham once warned.

本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）警告说：“选择普通股是一项艰巨的艺术。”

Graham's lifelong student Warren Buffett further clarified that "Investing is an art...putting cash now in the hope of getting more cash in the future."

格雷厄姆（Graham）的终身学生沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）进一步澄清说：“投资是一门艺术……现在就把现金投入到希望将来获得更多现金。”

Almost all investing comes down to forecasting future cash flows.

几乎所有的投资都归结为预测未来的现金流量。

But Peter Lynch warns that investors who are “trained to rigidly quantify everything are at a great disadvantage.”

但是彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）警告说，“受过严格量化一切的培训的投资者处于极劣势”。

However, this does not mean that “valuations are just a meme,” as some financial nihilists claim.

但是，这并不意味着“估值只是一个模因”，正如一些财务虚无者所说。

Rather, it means that applying and interpreting quantifiable valuation metrics is a creative activity in itself.

相反，这意味着应用和解释可量化的估值指标本身就是一项创造性活动。

Choosing which valuation metric to apply to which investment is a subjective decision—and knowing how to interpret the results is even more so.

选择哪种估值指标适用于哪个投资是一个主观的决定，并且知道如何解释结果。

For example, a low valuation does not necessarily mean that the stock is cheap, and a high valuation does not necessarily mean that the stock is expensive (often the opposite is true).

例如，低估并不一定意味着股票便宜，高估并不一定意味着股票昂贵（通常相反的是真的）。

A stock may look very cheap on some metrics and extremely expensive on others.

股票在某些指标上看起来很便宜，而另一些股票则非常昂贵。

There is no obvious correlation between these valuations and actual returns.

这些估值与实际回报之间没有明显的相关性。

This can often be frustrating -- if cheap stocks aren't going to go up and expensive stocks aren't going to go down, why bother trying to figure it all out?

这通常会令人沮丧 - 如果便宜的股票不增加，而昂贵的股票不会下跌，为什么还要努力解决所有问题呢？

I think it’s all worth looking into because that’s what makes investing interesting and appealing — and if that’s the case, the fun of crypto investing has only just begun.

我认为这一切都值得一看，因为这是使投资有趣和吸引人的原因 - 如果是这样，那么加密投资的乐趣才刚刚开始。

Until recently, crypto investors had very limited options when it came to data, with little available beyond token prices and market capitalization.

直到最近，加密投资者在数据方面的选择非常有限，几乎没有代币价格和市值。

This makes everything in crypto a “story” — and that’s okay!

这使得加密中的所有内容都成为“故事” - 没关系！

Investing is essentially the art of storytelling.

投资本质上是讲故事的艺术。

However, the best investment stories are often told in numbers, and the crypto space is gradually having such conditions as more protocols begin to generate revenue and a larger portion of these revenues are distributed to token holders.

但是，最好的投资故事经常被告知数字，并且加密货币空间逐渐具有条件，因为更多的协议开始产生收入，并且这些收入的很大一部分分配给了代币持有人。

Furthermore, these numbers have become more accessible thanks to the work of organizations like Blockworks Research, whose analysts package this data into easy-to-understand charts and reports for us to reference.

此外，由于Blockworks Research等组织的工作，这些数字变得更加易于访问，该组织的分析师将这些数据包装到易于理解的图表和报告中，供我们参考。

This helps the crypto space move to a higher level of narrative: telling stories with numbers.

这有助于加密空间移至更高水平的叙述：用数字讲述故事。

Let's look at some current numbers.

让我们看看一些当前的数字。

Ethereum vs. Solana

以太坊与索拉纳

Judging from crypto Twitter and podcasts, it seems that market sentiment for Ethereum has hit new lows, especially compared to Solana.

从加密推特和播客来看，以太坊的市场情绪似乎已经达到了新的低点，尤其是与Solana相比。

But if a newcomer with a traditional finance (TradFi) background looks at the data directly, he or she may come to a completely different conclusion.

但是，如果具有传统金融（TradFI）背景的新来者直接查看数据，他或她可能会得出一个完全不同的结论。

According to Blockworks Research, Solana recorded $36 million in “net token holder income” in April, which gives the SOL token an annualized earnings multiple of 178x — a multiple that, while high, may be justified given current low activity levels.

根据Blockworks Research的数据，Solana在4月的“净令牌持有人的收入”中记录了3600万美元，这使SOL令牌的年度收入倍数为178倍，鉴于当前的低活动水平，这一倍数可能是合理的。

In comparison, Ethereum’s token holders netted $21 million in April, giving ETH tokens a whopping 841x earnings multiple.

相比之下，以太坊的代币持有人在4月份获得了2100万美元，使ETH代币的收益高达841倍。

An investor from traditional finance (TradFi) wouldn’t immediately think, “Wow, why is everyone so pessimistic about Ethereum?” when he sees ETH’s valuation multiple is 5x that of SOL.

来自传统金融（Tradfi）的投资者不会立即想到：“哇，为什么每个人都对以太坊如此悲观？”当他看到ETH的估值倍数是SOL的5倍。

But they also won’t immediately assume that the market is 5 times more positive about Solana than Ethereum.

但是他们也不会立即假设市场对Solana的阳性比以太坊高5倍。

Instead, they might conclude that Solana’s revenue valuation is lower, perhaps because it derives primarily from “low-quality” memecoin trading activity, while Ethereum’s revenue valuation is higher, at least in part, due to its inclusion of higher-quality activity, such as revenue associated with real-world assets (RWAs).

取而代之的是，他们可能会得出结论，Solana的收入估值较低，也许是因为它主要源于“低质量” Memecoin交易活动，而以太坊的收入估值至少在某种程度上是由于其包括与现实世界中的收入相关的高质量活动（RWAS）（RWAS）。

Now we have some perspectives to analyse: if you think memecoin trading activity is not that low quality, then SOL may be undervalued; and if you think real-world assets are the future, then ETH may not be overvalued.

现在，我们有一些观点要分析：如果您认为Memecoin交易活动不是那么低质量，那么SOL可能会被低估；而且，如果您认为现实世界中的资产是未来，那么ETH可能不会被高估。

Of course, you can dig deeper to get more information.

当然，您可以更深入地挖掘以获取更多信息。

According to Blockworks Research, the combined revenue of all Solana applications is only about 1.8 times the revenue of Solana itself.

根据Blockworks Research的数据，所有Solana应用程序的合并收入仅是Solana本身收入的1.8倍。

For a platform-based business, this is a very high take rate - far higher than Apple's 30% cap, and the US government even believes that Apple's take rate is already monopolistic.

对于基于平台的业务，这是一个很高的收费率 - 远高于苹果的30％上限，美国政府甚至认为苹果的承担率已经垄断。

This could mean that Solana’s revenue is too high, so its token valuation multiple should be low; or, it could mean that Solana has a business moat, so its token valuation multiple should be high.

这可能意味着Solana的收入太高，因此其代币估值倍数应该很低。或者，这可能意味着Solana有商务护城河，因此其代币估值的多个应该很高。

In either case, this is a story worth watching.

无论哪种情况，这都是一个值得一看的故事。

Hyperliquid

超流动

Hyperliquid is a semi-decentralized crypto exchange with a somewhat peculiar story: the protocol generated a whopping $43 million in revenue in April

Hyproliquid是一种半居中的加密交易所，有一个奇特的故事：该协议在4月的收入高达4300万美元