穩定幣：遠離主流，大多數交易由機器人和鯨魚驅動

Visa 和 Allium Labs 共同開發的一項新指標顯示，超過 90% 的穩定幣交易量來自機器人或大規模交易者，而不是真正的用戶。這項發現對以下觀點提出了挑戰：儘管 PayPal 和 Stripe 等金融科技巨頭投資穩定幣的開發，但通常與美元等資產掛鉤的穩定幣仍有望徹底改變支付產業。

Stablecoins: Far from Widespread Adoption, Majority of Transactions Originate from Bots and Large-Scale Traders

穩定幣：遠未廣泛採用，大部分交易來自機器人和大型交易商

Visa and Allium Labs' New Dashboard Reveals Shocking Insight on Stablecoin Usage

Visa 和 Allium Labs 的新儀表板揭示了有關穩定幣使用情況的令人震驚的見解

In a bombshell revelation that challenges the narrative surrounding stablecoins, a new metric co-developed by Visa Inc. and Allium Labs has exposed a startling truth: over 90% of stablecoin transaction volumes do not originate from genuine users. This groundbreaking finding suggests that stablecoins, once touted as the future of payments, may be far from becoming a commonly used means of exchange.

Visa Inc. 和 Allium Labs 共同開發的一項新指標揭露了一個令人震驚的事實：超過 90% 的穩定幣交易量並非來自真實用戶，這一爆炸性事件挑戰了圍繞穩定幣的敘述。這項突破性的發現表明，曾經被譽為支付未來的穩定幣可能還遠遠不是一種常用的交換手段。

The dashboard, meticulously designed to isolate transactions made by real people by eliminating those initiated by bots and large-scale traders, paints a sobering picture of stablecoin adoption. Out of a staggering $2.2 trillion in total transactions recorded in April, a mere $149 billion were classified as "organic payments activity," according to Visa.

該儀表板經過精心設計，旨在透過消除機器人和大型交易員發起的交易來隔離真實的人進行的交易，描繪了一幅穩定幣採用的清醒畫面。 Visa 表示，4 月記錄的交易總額高達 2.2 兆美元，其中只有 1,490 億美元被歸類為「有機支付活動」。

Visa's Findings Counter the Optimism of Stablecoin Proponents

Visa 的調查結果反駁了穩定幣支持者的樂觀情緒

Visa's discovery casts a shadow over the enthusiastic proclamations made by stablecoin advocates, who posit that these tokens, pegged to assets like the dollar, hold the potential to revolutionize the payments industry, valued at $150 trillion annually. Fintech giants such as PayPal Inc. and Stripe Inc. have been actively investing in stablecoins, with Stripe co-founder John Collison bullishly citing "technical improvements" as a reason for their optimism about the tokens.

Visa 的發現為穩定幣倡導者的熱情宣稱蒙上了一層陰影，他們認為這些與美元等資產掛鉤的代幣有可能徹底改變每年價​​值 150 兆美元的支付產業。 PayPal Inc. 和 Stripe Inc. 等金融科技巨頭一直在積極投資穩定幣，Stripe 聯合創始人 John Collison 樂觀地引用「技術改進」作為他們對穩定幣持樂觀態度的理由。

Reality Check: Stablecoins Still in Early Stages of Evolution

現實檢驗：穩定幣仍處於發展的早期階段

"This data is a clear indication that stablecoins are still in a very nascent stage of their evolution as a payment instrument," declared Pranav Sood, executive general manager for EMEA at payments platform Airwallex, commenting on the findings. "This is not to say that they lack long-term potential, but the immediate and mid-term focus must be on ensuring that existing rails function more efficiently."

支付平台 Airwallex 歐洲、中東和非洲地區執行總經理 Pranav Sood 在評論調查結果時表示：“這些數據清楚地表明，穩定幣作為支付工具仍處於發展的非常初級階段。” “這並不是說它們缺乏長期潛力，但近期和中期的重點必須是確保現有鐵路更有效地運行。”

The Challenges of Measuring True Crypto Activity

衡量真實加密貨幣活動的挑戰

Tracking the "real" value of crypto activity using blockchain data has always been an enigmatic task. Data provider Glassnode estimated that the record $3 trillion of total market circulation assigned to digital tokens at the peak of the 2021 bull market was, in reality, closer to $875 billion.

使用區塊鏈數據追蹤加密活動的「真實」價值一直是一項神秘的任務。數據提供商 Glassnode 估計，在 2021 年牛市高峰期，分配給數位代幣的市場總流通量創紀錄的 3 兆美元，實際上接近 8,750 億美元。

With stablecoins, the problem of double-counting transactions arises due to the involvement of multiple platforms during fund transfers. For instance, converting $100 of Circle Internet Financial Ltd.'s USDC to PayPal's PYUSD on the decentralized exchange Uniswap would result in $200 of total stablecoin volume being recorded on-chain, explained Cuy Sheffield, Visa's head of crypto.

對於穩定幣來說，由於資金轉移過程中涉及多個平台，因此會出現重複計算交易的問題。 Visa 加密貨幣主管 Cuy Sheffield 解釋道，例如，在去中心化交易所 Uniswap 將 100 美元的 Circle Internet Financial Ltd. 的 USDC 轉換為 PayPal 的 PYUSD，將導致鏈上記錄 200 美元的穩定幣總交易量。

Visa's Potential Loss as Stablecoins Gain Traction

隨著穩定幣的發展，Visa 的潛在損失

Visa itself, which processed over $12 trillion worth of transactions in the past year, is among the companies that could face financial repercussions should stablecoins become a widely accepted means of payment.

Visa 本身在過去一年處理了價值超過 12 兆美元的交易，如果穩定幣成為一種廣泛接受的支付方式，該公司可能會面臨財務影響。

Analysts' Predictions and Industry Response

分析師的預測與產業反應

Analysts at Bernstein projected that the total value of all stablecoins in circulation could reach $2.8 trillion by 2028, representing an almost 18-fold increase from their current combined circulation. Advocates of stablecoins emphasize their suitability for disrupting the payments sector due to their instantaneous transactions and virtually zero transaction costs.

Bernstein 分析師預計，到 2028 年，所有流通中的穩定幣總價值可能達到 2.8 兆美元，比目前的總流通量增加近 18 倍。穩定幣的擁護者強調，由於其即時交易和幾乎零交易成本，它們適合顛覆支付領域。

PayPal launched its PYUSD stablecoin last year, seeking an innovative solution for instant and lower-cost transfers within its expansive payment infrastructure. Similarly, Stripe announced on April 25 that it would allow merchants using its platform to accept stablecoins for online transactions.

PayPal 去年推出了 PYUSD 穩定幣，尋求在其廣泛的支付基礎設施中實現即時和低成本轉帳的創新解決方案。同樣，Stripe 於 4 月 25 日宣布，將允許使用其平台的商家接受穩定幣進行線上交易。

Despite the enthusiasm, Airwallex, a payment platform, has witnessed lukewarm demand for stablecoin-based payments solutions from its customers. Sood attributes this to the lack of user-friendliness perceived in the technology.

儘管熱情高漲，但支付平台 Airwallex 卻見證了客戶對基於穩定幣的支付解決方案的需求冷淡。蘇德將此歸因於該技術缺乏用戶友善性。

"Overcoming this barrier is crucial," Sood emphasized. "It's worth noting that in the U.S., checks are still widely used for 40% to 60% of business payments, which illustrates the current level of technological adoption in the market."

「克服這一障礙至關重要，」蘇德強調。 “值得注意的是，在美國，40%至60%的商業支付仍然廣泛使用支票，這說明了當前市場的技術採用水平。”

Conclusion: A Sobering Reminder of the Challenges Facing Stablecoins

結論：對穩定幣面臨的挑戰的發人深省的提醒

The revelation that the majority of stablecoin transactions do not originate from genuine users serves as a sobering reminder of the challenges confronting stablecoins. While the tokens may hold long-term potential, their widespread adoption remains a distant prospect as the industry grapples with issues such as user-friendliness, double-counting of transactions, and the need for more efficient existing payment rails.

大多數穩定幣交易並非源自真實用戶的事實，並清醒地提醒我們穩定幣面臨的挑戰。雖然代幣可能具有長期潛力，但由於該行業正在努力解決用戶友好性、交易重複計算以及需要更高效的現有支付軌道等問題，因此其廣泛採用的前景仍然遙遠。