稳定币：远离主流，大多数交易由机器人和鲸鱼驱动

Visa 和 Allium Labs 共同开发的一项新指标显示，超过 90% 的稳定币交易量来自机器人或大规模交易者，而不是真正的用户。这一发现对以下观点提出了挑战：尽管 PayPal 和 Stripe 等金融科技巨头投资稳定币的开发，但通常与美元等资产挂钩的稳定币仍有望彻底改变支付行业。

Stablecoins: Far from Widespread Adoption, Majority of Transactions Originate from Bots and Large-Scale Traders

稳定币：远未得到广泛采用，大部分交易来自机器人和大型交易商

Visa and Allium Labs' New Dashboard Reveals Shocking Insight on Stablecoin Usage

Visa 和 Allium Labs 的新仪表板揭示了有关稳定币使用情况的令人震惊的见解

In a bombshell revelation that challenges the narrative surrounding stablecoins, a new metric co-developed by Visa Inc. and Allium Labs has exposed a startling truth: over 90% of stablecoin transaction volumes do not originate from genuine users. This groundbreaking finding suggests that stablecoins, once touted as the future of payments, may be far from becoming a commonly used means of exchange.

Visa Inc. 和 Allium Labs 共同开发的一项新指标揭露了一个令人震惊的事实：超过 90% 的稳定币交易量并非来自真实用户，这一爆炸性事件挑战了围绕稳定币的叙述。这一突破性的发现表明，曾经被誉为支付未来的稳定币可能还远未成为一种常用的交换手段。

The dashboard, meticulously designed to isolate transactions made by real people by eliminating those initiated by bots and large-scale traders, paints a sobering picture of stablecoin adoption. Out of a staggering $2.2 trillion in total transactions recorded in April, a mere $149 billion were classified as "organic payments activity," according to Visa.

该仪表板经过精心设计，旨在通过消除机器人和大型交易员发起的交易来隔离真实的人进行的交易，描绘了一幅稳定币采用的清醒画面。 Visa 表示，4 月份记录的交易总额高达 2.2 万亿美元，其中只有 1,490 亿美元被归类为“有机支付活动”。

Visa's Findings Counter the Optimism of Stablecoin Proponents

Visa 的调查结果反驳了稳定币支持者的乐观情绪

Visa's discovery casts a shadow over the enthusiastic proclamations made by stablecoin advocates, who posit that these tokens, pegged to assets like the dollar, hold the potential to revolutionize the payments industry, valued at $150 trillion annually. Fintech giants such as PayPal Inc. and Stripe Inc. have been actively investing in stablecoins, with Stripe co-founder John Collison bullishly citing "technical improvements" as a reason for their optimism about the tokens.

Visa 的发现给稳定币倡导者的热情​​宣称蒙上了一层阴影，他们认为这些与美元等资产挂钩的代币有可能彻底改变每年价值 150 万亿美元的支付行业。 PayPal Inc. 和 Stripe Inc. 等金融科技巨头一直在积极投资稳定币，Stripe 联合创始人 John Collison 乐观地引用“技术改进”作为他们对稳定币持乐观态度的理由。

Reality Check: Stablecoins Still in Early Stages of Evolution

现实检验：稳定币仍处于发展的早期阶段

"This data is a clear indication that stablecoins are still in a very nascent stage of their evolution as a payment instrument," declared Pranav Sood, executive general manager for EMEA at payments platform Airwallex, commenting on the findings. "This is not to say that they lack long-term potential, but the immediate and mid-term focus must be on ensuring that existing rails function more efficiently."

支付平台 Airwallex 欧洲、中东和非洲地区执行总经理 Pranav Sood 在评论调查结果时表示：“这些数据清楚地表明，稳定币作为支付工具仍处于发展的非常初级阶段。” “这并不是说它们缺乏长期潜力，但近期和中期的重点必须是确保现有铁路更有效地运行。”

The Challenges of Measuring True Crypto Activity

衡量真实加密货币活动的挑战

Tracking the "real" value of crypto activity using blockchain data has always been an enigmatic task. Data provider Glassnode estimated that the record $3 trillion of total market circulation assigned to digital tokens at the peak of the 2021 bull market was, in reality, closer to $875 billion.

使用区块链数据跟踪加密活动的“真实”价值一直是一项神秘的任务。数据提供商 Glassnode 估计，在 2021 年牛市高峰期，分配给数字代币的市场总流通量创纪录的 3 万亿美元，实际上接近 8750 亿美元。

With stablecoins, the problem of double-counting transactions arises due to the involvement of multiple platforms during fund transfers. For instance, converting $100 of Circle Internet Financial Ltd.'s USDC to PayPal's PYUSD on the decentralized exchange Uniswap would result in $200 of total stablecoin volume being recorded on-chain, explained Cuy Sheffield, Visa's head of crypto.

对于稳定币来说，由于资金转移过程中涉及多个平台，因此会出现重复计算交易的问题。 Visa 加密货币主管 Cuy Sheffield 解释道，例如，在去中心化交易所 Uniswap 将 100 美元的 Circle Internet Financial Ltd. 的 USDC 转换为 PayPal 的 PYUSD，将导致链上记录 200 美元的稳定币总交易量。

Visa's Potential Loss as Stablecoins Gain Traction

随着稳定币的发展，Visa 的潜在损失

Visa itself, which processed over $12 trillion worth of transactions in the past year, is among the companies that could face financial repercussions should stablecoins become a widely accepted means of payment.

Visa 本身在过去一年处理了价值超过 12 万亿美元的交易，如果稳定币成为一种广泛接受的支付方式，该公司可能会面临财务影响。

Analysts' Predictions and Industry Response

分析师的预测和行业反应

Analysts at Bernstein projected that the total value of all stablecoins in circulation could reach $2.8 trillion by 2028, representing an almost 18-fold increase from their current combined circulation. Advocates of stablecoins emphasize their suitability for disrupting the payments sector due to their instantaneous transactions and virtually zero transaction costs.

Bernstein 分析师预计，到 2028 年，所有流通中的稳定币总价值可能达到 2.8 万亿美元，比目前的总流通量增长近 18 倍。稳定币的拥护者强调，由于其即时交易和几乎零交易成本，它们适合颠覆支付领域。

PayPal launched its PYUSD stablecoin last year, seeking an innovative solution for instant and lower-cost transfers within its expansive payment infrastructure. Similarly, Stripe announced on April 25 that it would allow merchants using its platform to accept stablecoins for online transactions.

PayPal 去年推出了 PYUSD 稳定币，寻求在其广泛的支付基础设施中实现即时和低成本转账的创新解决方案。同样，Stripe 于 4 月 25 日宣布，将允许使用其平台的商家接受稳定币进行在线交易。

Despite the enthusiasm, Airwallex, a payment platform, has witnessed lukewarm demand for stablecoin-based payments solutions from its customers. Sood attributes this to the lack of user-friendliness perceived in the technology.

尽管热情高涨，但支付平台 Airwallex 却见证了客户对基于稳定币的支付解决方案的需求冷淡。苏德将此归因于该技术缺乏用户友好性。

"Overcoming this barrier is crucial," Sood emphasized. "It's worth noting that in the U.S., checks are still widely used for 40% to 60% of business payments, which illustrates the current level of technological adoption in the market."

“克服这一障碍至关重要，”苏德强调。 “值得注意的是，在美国，40%至60%的商业支付仍然广泛使用支票，这说明了当前市场的技术采用水平。”

Conclusion: A Sobering Reminder of the Challenges Facing Stablecoins

结论：对稳定币面临的挑战的发人深省的提醒

The revelation that the majority of stablecoin transactions do not originate from genuine users serves as a sobering reminder of the challenges confronting stablecoins. While the tokens may hold long-term potential, their widespread adoption remains a distant prospect as the industry grapples with issues such as user-friendliness, double-counting of transactions, and the need for more efficient existing payment rails.

大多数稳定币交易并非源自真实用户的事实，清醒地提醒我们稳定币面临的挑战。虽然代币可能具有长期潜力，但由于该行业正在努力解决用户友好性、交易重复计算以及需要更高效的现有支付轨道等问题，因此其广泛采用的前景仍然遥远。