為什麼儘管網路不斷成長，Solana (SOL) 仍未能突破 150 美元？

Solana 的原生代幣 SOL 自 8 月 11 日以來一直難以收於 150 美元以上。

Solana’s native token ( SOL ) has encountered resistance in closing above the $150 price level since Aug. 11. Despite showing consistent buying activity each time it tests the $125 support, SOL remains largely flat compared to four months ago.

自8 月11 日以來，Solana 的原生代幣(SOL) 在收於150 美元價格水平上方時遇到了阻力。前相比仍基本持平。

Even more troubling is the fact that the Solana network has experienced significant growth in deposits and activity during this period, but this expansion has yet to be reflected in SOL price. Let’s examine the factors keeping SOL’s price below $150 and what needs to occur for it to surpass this level.

更令人不安的是，在此期間，Solana 網路的存款和活動經歷了顯著增長，但這種擴張尚未反映在 SOL 價格中。讓我們研究一下使 SOL 的價格低於 150 美元的因素以及需要發生什麼才能使其超過這一水平。

Solana’s memecoin frenzy seems to have faded away

Solana 的迷因幣狂熱似乎已經消退

Some market participants argue that SOL’s recent hype was driven by a few airdrops, memecoins, and pump.tun activity, which proved unsustainable. Over the past thirty days, notable price corrections include Dogwifhat (WIF) with a 38% drop, BONK losing 39%, Lido (LDO) declining 43%, POPCAT falling 48%, and Wormhole (W) decreasing 31%. According to DappRadar, pump.fun activity has dropped 44% over the past week, now totaling $133.5 million.

一些市場參與者認為，SOL 最近的炒作是由一些空投、迷因幣和 Pump.tun 活動推動的，但事實證明這是不可持續的。在過去 30 天裡，顯著的價格調整包括 Dogwifhat (WIF) 下跌 38%、BONK 下跌 39%、Lido (LDO) 下跌 43%、POPCAT 下跌 48% 和 Wormhole (W) 下跌 31%。根據 DappRadar 的數據，過去一周，pump.fun 活動下降了 44%，目前總額為 1.335 億美元。

Pump.fun daily volume, USD. Source: DappRadar

Pump.fun 每日交易量，美元。來源：DappRadar

Data from Dune Analytics shows that 98.6% of pump.fun memecoins failed to list on a decentralized exchange, which requires a minimum of $69,000 in liquidity. Nevertheless, this has not deterred investors as the pump.fun activities have generated $6.3 million in fees over the past week. In comparison, AAVE (V2) (AAVE) , despite holding $11.72 billion in total value locked (TVL), accrued $4.4 million in fees during the same period.

Dune Analytics 的數據顯示，98.6% 的 Pump.fun memecoin 未能在去中心化交易所上市，這需要至少 69,000 美元的流動性。儘管如此，這並沒有阻止投資者，因為過去一周 Pump.fun 活動已產生 630 萬美元的費用。相較之下，AAVE (V2) (AAVE) 儘管鎖定總價值 (TVL) 為 117.2 億美元，但同期卻產生了 440 萬美元的費用。

However, recent analysis by @Adam_Tehc reveals that only 3% of traders made more than $1,000 from memecoin trading, highlighting the risks involved. Messari data engineer Mike Kremer argues that memecoins are “far more destructive” due to their “lack of real value or utility,” unlike decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. Kremer adds that “insiders or cartels create tokens, […] hype them up, and lure retail investors.” Essentially, memecoins, a significant driver of SOL demand, are now being scrutinized.

然而，@Adam_Tehc 最近的分析顯示，只有 3% 的交易者從 memecoin 交易中賺取了超過 1,000 美元，這凸顯了其中所涉及的風險。 Messari 數據工程師 Mike Kremer 認為，與去中心化金融（DeFi）代幣不同，memecoin 由於「缺乏實際價值或實用性」而「更具破壞性」。克雷默補充道，“內部人士或卡特爾創建代幣，[…]對其進行炒作，並吸引散戶投資者。”從本質上講，memecoins 作為 SOL 需求的重要驅動力，現在正在審查中。

But it would be shortsighted to evaluate investor interest in SOL solely based on memecoin activity. The Jito liquid staking application and the decentralized exchange Raydium have seen increased fees over the last 30 days. In terms of TVL, the Solana Network leaderboard also includes the lending and liquidity platform Kamino, the Marinade staking solution, and Jupiter, a decentralized exchange that offers perpetual contracts.

但僅根據 memecoin 活動來評估投資者對 SOL 的興趣是短視的。 Jito 流動質押應用程式和去中心化交易所 Raydium 的費用在過去 30 天內有所增加。就 TVL 而言，Solana Network 排行榜還包括借貸和流動性平台 Kamino、Marinade 質押解決方案以及提供永續合約的去中心化交易所 Jupiter。

Solana network activity is declining, reducing spot ETF odds

Solana 網路活動正在下降，現貨 ETF 賠率降低

Solana top DApps in terms of 7-day active addresses. Source: DappRadar

Solana 在 7 天活躍地址方面位居 DApp 榜首。來源：DappRadar

Unfortunately for Solana, data reveals that the decline in activity has affected all sectors, including DeFi, NFT marketplaces, Web3 infrastructure, gaming, gambling, and collectibles. In contrast, the top three DApps on BNB Chain—Treasure Ship Game, Move Stake, and PancakeSwap—gained 7% more users over the same 7-day period. This evidence suggests that Solana network activity is waning, which negatively impacts SOL token performance.

對 Solana 來說不幸的是，數據顯示活動下降影響了所有領域，包括 DeFi、NFT 市場、Web3 基礎設施、遊戲、賭博和收藏品。相比之下，BNB 鏈上排名前三的 DApp——Treasure Ship Game、Move Stake 和 PancakeSwap——在同一 7 天內增加了 7% 的用戶。這項證據表明 Solana 網路活動正在減弱，這對 SOL 代幣的表現產生了負面影響。

Related: Malicious ‘bull checker’ Chrome extension found targeting Solana users

相關：發現針對 Solana 用戶的惡意“公牛檢查器”Chrome 擴展程序

Additionally, part of the recent surge that pushed SOL’s price above $185 in late July was fueled by anticipation surrounding multiple requests for spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) listings in the United States. However, excitement diminished after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly raised concerns about SOL’s potential classification as a security, according to The Block. As a result, Cboe Global Markets decided not to proceed with the 19b-4 forms, although this does not definitively close the door on Solana ETF prospects.

此外，近期 SOL 價格在 7 月下旬飆升至 185 美元上方，部分原因是對美國現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 上市的多個請求的預期。然而，根據 The Block 報道，在美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 據報道對 SOL 可能被歸類為證券表示擔憂後，興奮情緒逐漸減弱。因此，芝加哥期權交易所全球市場決定不再繼續採用 19b-4 表格，儘管這並沒有徹底關閉 Solana ETF 前景的大門。

Nate Geraci, President of the ETFStore, doubts that a spot Solana ETF will be approved under the current U.S. government, citing the need for a “legitimate crypto regulatory framework.” Consequently, despite Cboe's discussions with the SEC, analysts remain skeptical about the approval of other crypto ETFs in the U.S. due to the lack of clear regulatory guidelines. As a result, a major potential catalyst for SOL’s price has been postponed.

ETFStore 總裁 Nate Geraci 對目前美國政府是否會批准現貨 Solana ETF 表示懷疑，理由是需要「合法的加密貨幣監管框架」。因此，儘管芝加哥期權交易所與美國證券交易委員會進行了討論，但由於缺乏明確的監管指南，分析師仍然對美國批准其他加密 ETF 持懷疑態度。因此，SOL 價格的主要潛在催化劑被推遲。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風險，讀者在做決定時應自行研究。