为什么尽管网络不断增长，Solana (SOL) 仍未能突破 150 美元？

Solana 的原生代币 SOL 自 8 月 11 日以来一直难以收于 150 美元以上。尽管每次测试 125 美元支撑位时都表现出持续的购买活动，但 SOL 与四个月前相比仍基本持平。

Solana’s native token ( SOL ) has encountered resistance in closing above the $150 price level since Aug. 11. Despite showing consistent buying activity each time it tests the $125 support, SOL remains largely flat compared to four months ago.

自 8 月 11 日以来，Solana 的原生代币 (SOL) 在收于 150 美元价格水平上方时遇到了阻力。尽管每次测试 125 美元支撑位时都表现出持续的购买活动，但 SOL 与四个月前相比仍基本持平。

Even more troubling is the fact that the Solana network has experienced significant growth in deposits and activity during this period, but this expansion has yet to be reflected in SOL price. Let’s examine the factors keeping SOL’s price below $150 and what needs to occur for it to surpass this level.

更令人不安的是，在此期间，Solana 网络的存款和活动经历了显着增长，但这种扩张尚未反映在 SOL 价格中。让我们研究一下使 SOL 的价格低于 150 美元的因素，以及需要发生什么才能使其超过这一水平。

Solana’s memecoin frenzy seems to have faded away

Solana 的模因币狂热似乎已经消退

Some market participants argue that SOL’s recent hype was driven by a few airdrops, memecoins, and pump.tun activity, which proved unsustainable. Over the past thirty days, notable price corrections include Dogwifhat (WIF) with a 38% drop, BONK losing 39%, Lido (LDO) declining 43%, POPCAT falling 48%, and Wormhole (W) decreasing 31%. According to DappRadar, pump.fun activity has dropped 44% over the past week, now totaling $133.5 million.

一些市场参与者认为，SOL 最近的炒作是由一些空投、模因币和 Pump.tun 活动推动的，但事实证明这是不可持续的。在过去 30 天里，显着的价格调整包括 Dogwifhat (WIF) 下跌 38%、BONK 下跌 39%、Lido (LDO) 下跌 43%、POPCAT 下跌 48% 和 Wormhole (W) 下跌 31%。根据 DappRadar 的数据，过去一周，pump.fun 活动下降了 44%，目前总额为 1.335 亿美元。

Pump.fun daily volume, USD. Source: DappRadar

Pump.fun 每日交易量，美元。来源：DappRadar

Data from Dune Analytics shows that 98.6% of pump.fun memecoins failed to list on a decentralized exchange, which requires a minimum of $69,000 in liquidity. Nevertheless, this has not deterred investors as the pump.fun activities have generated $6.3 million in fees over the past week. In comparison, AAVE (V2) (AAVE) , despite holding $11.72 billion in total value locked (TVL), accrued $4.4 million in fees during the same period.

Dune Analytics 的数据显示，98.6% 的 Pump.fun memecoin 未能在去中心化交易所上市，这需要至少 69,000 美元的流动性。尽管如此，这并没有阻止投资者，因为过去一周 Pump.fun 活动已产生 630 万美元的费用。相比之下，AAVE (V2) (AAVE) 尽管锁定总价值 (TVL) 为 117.2 亿美元，但同期却产生了 440 万美元的费用。

However, recent analysis by @Adam_Tehc reveals that only 3% of traders made more than $1,000 from memecoin trading, highlighting the risks involved. Messari data engineer Mike Kremer argues that memecoins are “far more destructive” due to their “lack of real value or utility,” unlike decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. Kremer adds that “insiders or cartels create tokens, […] hype them up, and lure retail investors.” Essentially, memecoins, a significant driver of SOL demand, are now being scrutinized.

然而，@Adam_Tehc 最近的分析显示，只有 3% 的交易者从 memecoin 交易中赚取了超过 1,000 美元，这凸显了其中所涉及的风险。 Messari 数据工程师 Mike Kremer 认为，与去中心化金融（DeFi）代币不同，memecoin 由于“缺乏实际价值或实用性”而“更具破坏性”。克雷默补充道，“内部人士或卡特尔创建代币，[……]对其进行炒作，并吸引散户投资者。”从本质上讲，memecoins 作为 SOL 需求的重要驱动力，现在正在受到审查。

But it would be shortsighted to evaluate investor interest in SOL solely based on memecoin activity. The Jito liquid staking application and the decentralized exchange Raydium have seen increased fees over the last 30 days. In terms of TVL, the Solana Network leaderboard also includes the lending and liquidity platform Kamino, the Marinade staking solution, and Jupiter, a decentralized exchange that offers perpetual contracts.

但仅根据 memecoin 活动来评估投资者对 SOL 的兴趣是短视的。 Jito 流动质押应用程序和去中心化交易所 Raydium 的费用在过去 30 天内有所增加。就 TVL 而言，Solana Network 排行榜还包括借贷和流动性平台 Kamino、Marinade 质押解决方案以及提供永续合约的去中心化交易所 Jupiter。

Solana network activity is declining, reducing spot ETF odds

Solana 网络活动正在下降，现货 ETF 赔率降低

Solana top DApps in terms of 7-day active addresses. Source: DappRadar

Solana 在 7 天活跃地址方面位居 DApp 榜首。来源：DappRadar

Unfortunately for Solana, data reveals that the decline in activity has affected all sectors, including DeFi, NFT marketplaces, Web3 infrastructure, gaming, gambling, and collectibles. In contrast, the top three DApps on BNB Chain—Treasure Ship Game, Move Stake, and PancakeSwap—gained 7% more users over the same 7-day period. This evidence suggests that Solana network activity is waning, which negatively impacts SOL token performance.

对于 Solana 来说不幸的是，数据显示活动下降影响了所有领域，包括 DeFi、NFT 市场、Web3 基础设施、游戏、赌博和收藏品。相比之下，BNB 链上排名前三的 DApp——Treasure Ship Game、Move Stake 和 PancakeSwap——在同一 7 天内增加了 7% 的用户。这一证据表明 Solana 网络活动正在减弱，这对 SOL 代币的性能产生了负面影响。

Related: Malicious ‘bull checker’ Chrome extension found targeting Solana users

相关：发现针对 Solana 用户的恶意“公牛检查器”Chrome 扩展程序

Additionally, part of the recent surge that pushed SOL’s price above $185 in late July was fueled by anticipation surrounding multiple requests for spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) listings in the United States. However, excitement diminished after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly raised concerns about SOL’s potential classification as a security, according to The Block. As a result, Cboe Global Markets decided not to proceed with the 19b-4 forms, although this does not definitively close the door on Solana ETF prospects.

此外，近期 SOL 价格在 7 月下旬飙升至 185 美元上方，部分原因是对美国现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 上市的多个请求的预期。然而，据 The Block 报道，在美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 据报道对 SOL 可能被归类为证券表示担忧后，兴奋情绪逐渐减弱。因此，芝加哥期权交易所全球市场决定不再继续采用 19b-4 表格，尽管这并没有彻底关闭 Solana ETF 前景的大门。

Nate Geraci, President of the ETFStore, doubts that a spot Solana ETF will be approved under the current U.S. government, citing the need for a “legitimate crypto regulatory framework.” Consequently, despite Cboe's discussions with the SEC, analysts remain skeptical about the approval of other crypto ETFs in the U.S. due to the lack of clear regulatory guidelines. As a result, a major potential catalyst for SOL’s price has been postponed.

ETFStore 总裁 Nate Geraci 对当前美国政府是否会批准现货 Solana ETF 表示怀疑，理由是需要“合法的加密货币监管框架”。因此，尽管芝加哥期权交易所与美国证券交易委员会进行了讨论，但由于缺乏明确的监管指南，分析师仍然对美国批准其他加密 ETF 持怀疑态度。因此，SOL 价格的主要潜在催化剂被推迟。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。