Solana 會成為下一個獲得美國 ETF 的加密貨幣嗎？

今年比特幣和以太坊的現貨 ETF 最終在美國獲得批准後，加密領域的許多人都公開懷疑 Solana 是否會成為下一個。

After a Bitcoin ETF and an Ethereum ETF were finally approved in the US this year, many in the crypto space are openly wondering whether or not Solana will be next.

今年比特幣 ETF 和以太坊 ETF 最終在美國獲得批准後，加密貨幣領域的許多人公開懷疑 Solana 是否會成為下一個。

But Brazil's Solana Spot ETF will provide an interesting test case for its viability in US markets.

但巴西的 Solana 現貨 ETF 將為其在美國市場的生存能力提供一個有趣的測試案例。

2024: An ETF Bonanza

2024 年：ETF 財富

2024 has been a truly pivotal year for exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, in the cryptoasset industry. The SEC made headlines around the globe when it announced the Bitcoin ETF's approval in January. The events that followed led to a historic rally in Bitcoin’s price, a multibillion dollar trade in these new assets and permanent changes to the landscape of the entire industry.

對於加密資產產業的交易所交易基金（ETF）來說，2024 年確實是關鍵的一年。當 SEC 一月份宣布批准比特幣 ETF 時，它成為了全球頭條新聞。隨後發生的事件導致比特幣價格歷史性上漲，這些新資產的交易額達到數十億美元，並永久改變了整個產業的格局。

Several months later, the SEC approved the second major spot ETF, based on Ethereum. By this point, the SEC was no trailblazer, as jurisdictions abroad had already approved similar products months prior. In other words, a total taboo even one year ago turned into an open season.

幾個月後，美國證券交易委員會批准了第二個基於以太坊的主要現貨 ETF。到目前為止，美國證券交易委員會並不是開拓者，因為國外的司法管轄區在幾個月前就已經批准了類似的產品。換句話說，一年前的完全禁忌變成了開放季節。

In this environment, the community has asked one question: which cryptocurrency will win approval next?

在這種環境下，社區提出了一個問題：接下來哪種加密貨幣將會獲得批准？

One possible candidate has jumped to the head of the pack, according to many experts; Solana, a blockchain platform and fifth-largest cryptoasset by market cap. This young coin first went public in 2020, offering a proof-of-stake model and a smart contract system similar to Ethereum.

據許多專家稱，一位可能的候選人已躍居首位。 Solana，一個區塊鏈平台，也是市值第五大的加密資產。這個年輕的硬幣於 2020 年首次上市，提供了類似以太坊的權益證明模型和智慧合約系統。

Solana is more likely than Tether or BNB, the third and fourth-largest coins respectively, for fairly obvious reasons. In past ETF legal battles, a core sticking point between issuers and regulators has been Bitcoin and Ethereum’s legal status. Are they commodities or securities? If a corporate entity can meddle with a coin’s price, what chaos could that do to an ETF? The ETF is already a security, and it simply wouldn't work to build a security around a security-type coin.

出於相當明顯的原因，Solana 比分別排名第三和第四大代幣的 Tether 或 BNB 更有可能出現。在過去的 ETF 法律糾紛中，發行人和監管機構之間的核心論點一直是比特幣和以太坊的法律地位。它們是商品還是證券？如果企業實體可以介入代幣的價格，那麼這會對 ETF 造成什麼混亂呢？ ETF 已經是一種證券，圍繞證券型貨幣建立證券根本行不通。

The Steps to Success

成功的步驟

The SEC considers a spot ETF a gold-standard for regulatory approval, something that investors of all sizes can trust. It would never dream of building one around an asset with an obvious back door. Tether is a stablecoin, and this means it will always be open to direct management from its issuers. Binance controls BNB, and US regulators have ample reason to distrust it. In short, a these controllers could deliberately sink or float an asset, wreaking havoc on US finance.

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 認為現貨 ETF 是監管批准的黃金標準，是各種規模的投資者都可以信賴的。它永遠不會夢想圍繞著具有明顯後門的資產來建立一個資產。 Tether 是一種穩定幣，這意味著它將始終接受發行人的直接管理。幣安控制 BNB，美國監管機構有充分的理由不信任它。簡而言之，這些控制者可能會故意沉沒或浮動資產，對美國金融造成嚴重破壞。

Compared to these, Solana seems as qualified to be an ETF as Ethereum was. Plus, Solana's market cap is quite formidable, promising that investors would show higher demand than smaller commodity-type assets.

與這些相比，Solana 似乎和以太坊一樣有資格成為 ETF。此外，Solana 的市值相當強大，這預示著投資者將比小型商品類型資產表現出更高的需求。

Indeed, Brazil accepted the terms of this logic wholeheartedly, with the first Solana ETF getting its approval in late August. This was no one-off, however, as the nation's securities regulator (CVM) made a second approval mere days later.

事實上，巴西全心全意地接受了這個邏輯的條款，第一個 Solana ETF 於 8 月底獲得批准。然而，這並不是一次性的，因為僅僅幾天后，國家證券監管機構 (CVM) 就做出了第二次批准。

Despite this positive sign, however, another possible setback has materialized. Although Bitcoin's ETF was dynamite, with some of the fastest-ever growth in the ETF market, Ethereum's has been a fizzle. Ethereum products saw outflows of $458M since their launch, but these losses coincided with a sunny market for their counterparts. If Ethereum's ETFs are a flop, why would a smaller cousin have more success?

然而，儘管出現了這一積極跡象，另一個可能的挫折已經成為現實。儘管比特幣的 ETF 非常火爆，而且在 ETF 市場中成長速度是有史以來最快的，但以太坊的 ETF 卻一直以失敗告終。自推出以來，以太坊產品流出了 4.58 億美元，但這些損失恰逢其同類產品市場陽光明媚。如果以太坊的 ETF 失敗了，為什麼它的小表弟會取得更大的成功？

Read More: Bitcoin ETFs Hit Milestone With Over 1,000 Institutional Investors

了解更多：比特幣 ETF 迎來了超過 1,000 家機構投資者的里程碑

These market trends add context to news that the SEC has rejected CBOE's fledgling attempt to win a Solana ETF. Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg analyst and ETF expert, claimed in a social media post that the Solana ETF has “a snowball’s chance in hell of approval unless there's change in leadership”. He also noted that CBOE's 19b-4 filings have already vanished from the SEC's site.

這些市場趨勢為 SEC 拒絕了 CBOE 贏得 Solana ETF 的初步嘗試的消息提供了背景。彭博分析師兼 ETF 專家 Eric Balchunas 在社群媒體貼文中聲稱，Solana ETF「獲得批准的機會就像滾雪球一樣，除非領導層發生變化」。他還指出，CBOE 的 19b-4 文件已從 SEC 網站上消失。

In the Bitcoin ETF race, a crucial factor was that the SEC could not legally drag its feet. After reaching each new step, the SEC had a hard deadline to make a ruling. As Balchunas showed, however, the SEC shot down the Solana ETF before these clocks could start ticking.

在比特幣 ETF 競賽中，一個關鍵因素是 SEC 不能合法地拖延。在達到每一個新步驟後，美國證券交易委員會都有一個嚴格的最後期限來做出裁決。然而，正如 Balchunas 所表明的那樣，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 在這些時鐘開始計時之前就擊落了 Solana ETF。

Next Steps, or Long Shots?

下一步，還是遠景？

And yet, these pessimistic predictions are not the final word on the subject. CBOE filed these requests on behalf of two potential issuers, VanEck and 21Shares. As far as VanEck is concerned, this harsh rejection is a mere temporary setback.

然而，這些悲觀的預測並不是這個問題的最終定論。 CBOE 代表 VanEck 和 21Shares 這兩家潛在發行人提出了這些請求。對範埃克來說，這種嚴厲的拒絕只是暫時的挫折。

Matthew Sigel, the firm's Head of Digital Assets Research, has been vocal in his belief of Solana's ETF eligibility. Sigel specifically drew attention to a narrow legal precedent, a 2018 court case between the CFTC and My Big Coin, a now-defunct token issuer. In this case, the CFTC successfully argued that this token was a commodity-type asset, establishing precedent that coins of a similar structure are commodities too. Provided

該公司數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 一直直言不諱地相信 Solana 的 ETF 資格。 Sigel 特別提請注意一個狹隘的法律先例，即 2018 年 CFTC 和 My Big Coin（一家現已解散的代幣發行商）之間的法庭案件。在本案中，CFTC 成功辯稱該代幣是商品類資產，開創了類似結構的代幣也是商品的先例。假如