Solana 会成为下一个获得美国 ETF 的加密货币吗？

今年比特币和以太坊的现货 ETF 最终在美国获得批准后，加密领域的许多人都公开怀疑 Solana 是否会成为下一个。

After a Bitcoin ETF and an Ethereum ETF were finally approved in the US this year, many in the crypto space are openly wondering whether or not Solana will be next.

今年比特币 ETF 和以太坊 ETF 最终在美国获得批准后，加密领域的许多人公开怀疑 Solana 是否会成为下一个。

But Brazil's Solana Spot ETF will provide an interesting test case for its viability in US markets.

但巴西的 Solana 现货 ETF 将为其在美国市场的生存能力提供一个有趣的测试案例。

2024: An ETF Bonanza

2024 年：ETF 财富

2024 has been a truly pivotal year for exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, in the cryptoasset industry. The SEC made headlines around the globe when it announced the Bitcoin ETF's approval in January. The events that followed led to a historic rally in Bitcoin’s price, a multibillion dollar trade in these new assets and permanent changes to the landscape of the entire industry.

对于加密资产行业的交易所交易基金（ETF）来说，2024 年确实是关键的一年。当 SEC 一月份宣布批准比特币 ETF 时，它成为了全球头条新闻。随后发生的事件导致比特币价格出现历史性上涨，这些新资产的交易额达到数十亿美元，并永久改变了整个行业的格局。

Several months later, the SEC approved the second major spot ETF, based on Ethereum. By this point, the SEC was no trailblazer, as jurisdictions abroad had already approved similar products months prior. In other words, a total taboo even one year ago turned into an open season.

几个月后，美国证券交易委员会批准了第二个基于以太坊的主要现货 ETF。到目前为止，美国证券交易委员会并不是开拓者，因为国外的司法管辖区在几个月前就已经批准了类似的产品。换句话说，一年前的完全禁忌变成了开放季节。

In this environment, the community has asked one question: which cryptocurrency will win approval next?

在这种环境下，社区提出了一个问题：接下来哪种加密货币将获得批准？

One possible candidate has jumped to the head of the pack, according to many experts; Solana, a blockchain platform and fifth-largest cryptoasset by market cap. This young coin first went public in 2020, offering a proof-of-stake model and a smart contract system similar to Ethereum.

据许多专家称，一位可能的候选人已跃居首位。 Solana，一个区块链平台，也是市值第五大的加密资产。这个年轻的硬币于 2020 年首次上市，提供了类似于以太坊的权益证明模型和智能合约系统。

Solana is more likely than Tether or BNB, the third and fourth-largest coins respectively, for fairly obvious reasons. In past ETF legal battles, a core sticking point between issuers and regulators has been Bitcoin and Ethereum’s legal status. Are they commodities or securities? If a corporate entity can meddle with a coin’s price, what chaos could that do to an ETF? The ETF is already a security, and it simply wouldn't work to build a security around a security-type coin.

出于相当明显的原因，Solana 比分别排名第三和第四大代币的 Tether 或 BNB 更有可能出现。在过去的 ETF 法律纠纷中，发行人和监管机构之间的核心争论点一直是比特币和以太坊的法律地位。它们是商品还是证券？如果企业实体可以干预代币的价格，那么这会对 ETF 造成什么混乱呢？ ETF 已经是一种证券，围绕证券型货币构建证券根本行不通。

The Steps to Success

成功的步骤

The SEC considers a spot ETF a gold-standard for regulatory approval, something that investors of all sizes can trust. It would never dream of building one around an asset with an obvious back door. Tether is a stablecoin, and this means it will always be open to direct management from its issuers. Binance controls BNB, and US regulators have ample reason to distrust it. In short, a these controllers could deliberately sink or float an asset, wreaking havoc on US finance.

美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 认为现货 ETF 是监管审批的黄金标准，是各种规模的投资者都可以信赖的。它永远不会梦想围绕具有明显后门的资产构建一个资产。 Tether 是一种稳定币，这意味着它将始终接受发行人的直接管理。币安控制着 BNB，美国监管机构有充分的理由不信任它。简而言之，这些控制者可能会故意沉没或浮动资产，对美国金融造成严重破坏。

Compared to these, Solana seems as qualified to be an ETF as Ethereum was. Plus, Solana's market cap is quite formidable, promising that investors would show higher demand than smaller commodity-type assets.

与这些相比，Solana 似乎和以太坊一样有资格成为 ETF。此外，Solana 的市值相当强大，这预示着投资者将比小型商品类型资产表现出更高的需求。

Indeed, Brazil accepted the terms of this logic wholeheartedly, with the first Solana ETF getting its approval in late August. This was no one-off, however, as the nation's securities regulator (CVM) made a second approval mere days later.

事实上，巴西全心全意地接受了这一逻辑的条款，第一个 Solana ETF 于 8 月底获得批准。然而，这并不是一次性的，因为仅仅几天后，国家证券监管机构 (CVM) 就做出了第二次批准。

Despite this positive sign, however, another possible setback has materialized. Although Bitcoin's ETF was dynamite, with some of the fastest-ever growth in the ETF market, Ethereum's has been a fizzle. Ethereum products saw outflows of $458M since their launch, but these losses coincided with a sunny market for their counterparts. If Ethereum's ETFs are a flop, why would a smaller cousin have more success?

然而，尽管出现了这一积极迹象，另一个可能的挫折已经成为现实。尽管比特币的 ETF 非常火爆，而且在 ETF 市场中增长速度是有史以来最快的，但以太坊的 ETF 却一直以失败告终。自推出以来，以太坊产品流出了 4.58 亿美元，但这些损失恰逢其同类产品市场阳光明媚。如果以太坊的 ETF 失败了，为什么它的小表弟会取得更大的成功？

Read More: Bitcoin ETFs Hit Milestone With Over 1,000 Institutional Investors

了解更多：比特币 ETF 迎来了超过 1,000 家机构投资者的里程碑

These market trends add context to news that the SEC has rejected CBOE's fledgling attempt to win a Solana ETF. Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg analyst and ETF expert, claimed in a social media post that the Solana ETF has “a snowball’s chance in hell of approval unless there's change in leadership”. He also noted that CBOE's 19b-4 filings have already vanished from the SEC's site.

这些市场趋势为 SEC 拒绝了 CBOE 赢得 Solana ETF 的初步尝试的消息提供了背景。彭博社分析师兼 ETF 专家 Eric Balchunas 在社交媒体帖子中声称，Solana ETF“获得批准的机会就像滚雪球一样，除非领导层发生变化”。他还指出，CBOE 的 19b-4 文件已从 SEC 网站上消失。

In the Bitcoin ETF race, a crucial factor was that the SEC could not legally drag its feet. After reaching each new step, the SEC had a hard deadline to make a ruling. As Balchunas showed, however, the SEC shot down the Solana ETF before these clocks could start ticking.

在比特币 ETF 竞赛中，一个关键因素是 SEC 不能合法地拖延。在达到每一个新步骤后，美国证券交易委员会都有一个严格的最后期限来做出裁决。然而，正如 Balchunas 所表明的那样，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 在这些时钟开始计时之前就击落了 Solana ETF。

Next Steps, or Long Shots?

下一步，还是远景？

And yet, these pessimistic predictions are not the final word on the subject. CBOE filed these requests on behalf of two potential issuers, VanEck and 21Shares. As far as VanEck is concerned, this harsh rejection is a mere temporary setback.

然而，这些悲观的预测并不是这个问题的最终定论。 CBOE 代表 VanEck 和 21Shares 这两家潜在发行人提出了这些请求。对范埃克来说，这种严厉的拒绝只是暂时的挫折。

Matthew Sigel, the firm's Head of Digital Assets Research, has been vocal in his belief of Solana's ETF eligibility. Sigel specifically drew attention to a narrow legal precedent, a 2018 court case between the CFTC and My Big Coin, a now-defunct token issuer. In this case, the CFTC successfully argued that this token was a commodity-type asset, establishing precedent that coins of a similar structure are commodities too. Provided

该公司数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 一直直言不讳地相信 Solana 的 ETF 资格。 Sigel 特别提请注意一个狭隘的法律先例，即 2018 年 CFTC 和 My Big Coin（一家现已解散的代币发行商）之间的法庭案件。在本案中，CFTC 成功辩称该代币是商品类资产，开创了类似结构的代币也是商品的先例。假如