以 Rollup 為中心的未來已經走得太好了：代幣現在比以太坊本身處理更多的交易

主要匯總的代幣（也稱為第 2 層區塊鏈或 L2）經歷了悲慘的一年：Arbitrum 自 1 月 1 日以來下跌了 66%；在此期間，樂觀情緒下降了 56%

Ethereum has shifted its focus towards layer 2 blockchains, also known as L2s, in an effort to improve scalability and reduce transaction costs on its network. Among the most prominent L2s are Arbitrum, Optimism, Starknet, ZkSync, and Mantle. These L2s have experienced varying degrees of success in attracting users and processing transactions.

以太坊已將重點轉向第 2 層區塊鏈（也稱為 L2），以提高可擴展性並降低其網路的交易成本。其中最著名的 L2 包括 Arbitrum、Optimism、Starknet、ZkSync 和 Mantle。這些 L2 在吸引用戶和處理交易方面取得了不同程度的成功。

However, despite the overall growth and adoption of L2s, the tokens associated with these L2s have largely underperformed in 2024. While crypto markets have enjoyed a strong year, with the total market value of all tokens surging by more than 46%, L2 tokens have faced a different fate.

然而，儘管L2 整體成長並得到採用，但與這些L2 相關的代幣在2024 年的表現基本上表現不佳。 ，但L2 代幣的表現卻不盡人意。

According to data from CoinGecko, Arbitrum’s token (token:arbitrum) has seen a significant decline of 66% since January 1. Optimism’s token (token:optimism) has also fallen by a substantial 56% during the same period. Starknet’s token (token:starknet) has faced the steepest decline among major L2 tokens, plummeting by a whopping 84%.

根據 CoinGecko 的數據，Arbitrum 的代幣（token：arbitrum）自 1 月 1 日以來已大幅下跌 66%。 Starknet的代幣（代幣：starknet）面臨主要L2代幣中跌幅最大的，暴跌高達84%。

ZkSync’s token (token:zksync) has also experienced a notable decline of 55% since January 1. In contrast, Mantle’s token (token:mantle) has seen a more modest decline of 10%.

自 1 月 1 日以來，ZkSync 的代幣（token：zksync）也經歷了 55% 的顯著下跌。

Several analysts attribute L2 tokens’ poor performance to the large supply of tokens and the continuous selling pressure exerted by organizations affiliated with the L2s.

一些分析師將 L2 代幣表現不佳歸因於代幣供應量大以及 L2 附屬組織持續施加的拋售壓力。

“There have been Arbitrum and Optimism unlocks, and those are the two that have seen the most price weakness,” Thomas Bautista, a research analyst at GSR, told Blockworks in an interview.

GSR 研究分析師 Thomas Bautista 在接受 Blockworks 採訪時表示：“Arbitrum 和 Optimism 已解鎖，而這兩者的價格最為疲軟。”

“OP and ARB both saw substantial token unlocks this year. The significant increase in circulating supply created sell pressure, driving down individual token prices.”

「OP 和 ARB 今年都出現了大量代幣解鎖。流通供應量的大幅增加造成了拋售壓力，壓低了單一代幣的價格。

Indeed, a significant portion of L2 tokens are still locked and will be gradually released over the coming years. According to data from Token Track, only 40% of Arbitrum tokens are currently in circulation.

事實上，很大一部分 L2 代幣仍然處於鎖定狀態，並將在未來幾年內逐步釋放。根據 Token Track 的數據，目前只有 40% 的 Arbitrum 代幣正在流通。

Meanwhile, only 29% of OP tokens are currently in circulation, and Starknet will face an even larger supply shock, with a mere 19% of its tokens circulating. Mantle is an outlier among major L2s, with 54% of its tokens currently in circulation.

同時，目前只有 29% 的 OP 代幣在流通，而 Starknet 將面臨更大的供應衝擊，其代幣流通率僅為 19%。 Mantle 是主要 L2 中的一個異類，其 54% 的代幣目前正在流通。

“In dollar terms, this means we are going to see several billions worth of tokens come into circulation over the next few years,” Bautista added.

「以美元計算，這意味著我們將在未來幾年看到價值數十億美元的代幣進入流通，」包提斯塔補充道。

Furthermore, cooperatives and foundations that govern most L2s often utilize these tokens to fuel the growth and development of their respective ecosystems. For instance, the Arbitrum DAO recently voted to establish a “Gaming Catalyst Program” that will provide grants and invest in game developers and studios.

此外，管理大多數 L2 的合作社和基金會經常利用這些代幣來推動各自生態系統的成長和發展。例如，Arbitrum DAO 最近投票決定建立“遊戲催化劑計劃”，該計劃將為遊戲開發商和工作室提供資助和投資。

The program was funded with more than 200 million ARB tokens, which were valued at approximately $200 million at the time of the announcement.

該計劃由超過 2 億個 ARB 代幣資助，在宣佈時價值約為 2 億美元。

“Right now, all the L2s are really focused on growth, and a lot of that growth is through token incentives,” Ian Unsworth, the founder of Kairos Research, told Blockworks.

Kairos Research 創始人 Ian Unsworth 告訴 Blockworks：“目前，所有 L2 都真正專注於成長，而其中很大一部分是透過代幣激勵實現的。”

“There’s nothing wrong with that, it’s obviously with the intent of getting to a point where there is so much value being created on the chain itself that it can begin flowing back to the DAO or token holders themselves.”

“這沒有什麼問題，顯然是為了在鏈上創造如此多的價值，以至於它可以開始回流到 DAO 或代幣持有者本身。”

It is worth noting that the combined market value of major rollup tokens has remained relatively stable despite the large token unlocks and sell pressure, according to Bautista.

Bautista 表示，值得注意的是，儘管代幣解鎖和拋售壓力較大，但主要匯總代幣的總市值仍保持相對穩定。

“The total market cap of the top five L2 tokens has held steady at around $6 billion since December 2023, suggesting that the market’s overall valuation of top L2s has held steady despite the price declines,” he said.

他表示：“自 2023 年 12 月以來，前五名 L2 代幣的總市值一直穩定在 60 億美元左右，這表明儘管價格下跌，但市場對頂級 L2 代幣的整體估值仍保持穩定。”

Moreover, if crypto markets experience a broad-based rally, it could potentially lift L2 tokens despite the planned supply increases, according to Brian Rudick, director of research at crypto trading firm GSR.

此外，加密貨幣交易公司 GSR 研究總監 Brian Rudick 表示，如果加密貨幣市場出現廣泛反彈，儘管計劃增加供應量，但 L2 代幣仍有可能上漲。

“Unlocks are typically a headwind for token prices, but the largest determinant on how much [or] whether they impact price will likely be the market backdrop,” Rudick told Blockworks.

Rudick 告訴 Blockworks：“解鎖通常是代幣價格的阻力，但決定其對價格影響程度或是否影響的最大因素可能是市場背景。”

“As we’ve seen in previous cycles, large unlocks are often much more easily absorbed when crypto prices are running.”

“正如我們在之前的周期中看到的那樣，當加密貨幣價格上漲時，大量解鎖通常更容易被吸收。”