以 Rollup 为中心的未来已经走得太好了：代币现在比以太坊本身处理更多的交易

主要汇总的代币（也称为第 2 层区块链或 L2）经历了悲惨的一年：Arbitrum 自 1 月 1 日以来下跌了 66%；在此期间，乐观情绪下降了 56%

Ethereum has shifted its focus towards layer 2 blockchains, also known as L2s, in an effort to improve scalability and reduce transaction costs on its network. Among the most prominent L2s are Arbitrum, Optimism, Starknet, ZkSync, and Mantle. These L2s have experienced varying degrees of success in attracting users and processing transactions.

以太坊已将重点转向第 2 层区块链（也称为 L2），以提高可扩展性并降低其网络的交易成本。其中最著名的 L2 包括 Arbitrum、Optimism、Starknet、ZkSync 和 Mantle。这些 L2 在吸引用户和处理交易方面取得了不同程度的成功。

However, despite the overall growth and adoption of L2s, the tokens associated with these L2s have largely underperformed in 2024. While crypto markets have enjoyed a strong year, with the total market value of all tokens surging by more than 46%, L2 tokens have faced a different fate.

然而，尽管 L2 整体增长并得到采用，但与这些 L2 相关的代币在 2024 年的表现基本上表现不佳。虽然加密市场经历了强劲的一年，所有代币的总市值飙升了 46% 以上，但 L2 代币的表现却不尽如人意。面临着不同的命运。

According to data from CoinGecko, Arbitrum’s token (token:arbitrum) has seen a significant decline of 66% since January 1. Optimism’s token (token:optimism) has also fallen by a substantial 56% during the same period. Starknet’s token (token:starknet) has faced the steepest decline among major L2 tokens, plummeting by a whopping 84%.

根据 CoinGecko 的数据，Arbitrum 的代币（token：arbitrum）自 1 月 1 日以来已大幅下跌 66%。Optimism 的代币（token：optimism）同期也大幅下跌 56%。 Starknet的代币（代币：starknet）面临着主要L2代币中跌幅最大的，暴跌高达84%。

ZkSync’s token (token:zksync) has also experienced a notable decline of 55% since January 1. In contrast, Mantle’s token (token:mantle) has seen a more modest decline of 10%.

自 1 月 1 日以来，ZkSync 的代币（token：zksync）也经历了 55% 的显着下跌。相比之下，Mantle 的代币（token：mantle）的跌幅更为温和，为 10%。

Several analysts attribute L2 tokens’ poor performance to the large supply of tokens and the continuous selling pressure exerted by organizations affiliated with the L2s.

一些分析师将 L2 代币表现不佳归因于代币供应量大以及 L2 附属组织持续施加的抛售压力。

“There have been Arbitrum and Optimism unlocks, and those are the two that have seen the most price weakness,” Thomas Bautista, a research analyst at GSR, told Blockworks in an interview.

GSR 研究分析师托马斯·鲍蒂斯塔 (Thomas Bautista) 在接受 Blockworks 采访时表示：“Arbitrum 和 Optimism 已解锁，而这两者的价格最为疲软。”

“OP and ARB both saw substantial token unlocks this year. The significant increase in circulating supply created sell pressure, driving down individual token prices.”

“OP 和 ARB 今年都出现了大量代币解锁。流通供应量的大幅增加造成了抛售压力，压低了单个代币的价格。”

Indeed, a significant portion of L2 tokens are still locked and will be gradually released over the coming years. According to data from Token Track, only 40% of Arbitrum tokens are currently in circulation.

事实上，很大一部分 L2 代币仍然处于锁定状态，并将在未来几年内逐步释放。根据 Token Track 的数据，目前只有 40% 的 Arbitrum 代币在流通。

Meanwhile, only 29% of OP tokens are currently in circulation, and Starknet will face an even larger supply shock, with a mere 19% of its tokens circulating. Mantle is an outlier among major L2s, with 54% of its tokens currently in circulation.

与此同时，目前只有 29% 的 OP 代币在流通，而 Starknet 将面临更大的供应冲击，其代币流通率仅为 19%。 Mantle 是主要 L2 中的一个异类，其 54% 的代币目前正在流通。

“In dollar terms, this means we are going to see several billions worth of tokens come into circulation over the next few years,” Bautista added.

“以美元计算，这意味着我们将在未来几年看到价值数十亿美元的代币进入流通，”包蒂斯塔补充道。

Furthermore, cooperatives and foundations that govern most L2s often utilize these tokens to fuel the growth and development of their respective ecosystems. For instance, the Arbitrum DAO recently voted to establish a “Gaming Catalyst Program” that will provide grants and invest in game developers and studios.

此外，管理大多数 L2 的合作社和基金会经常利用这些代币来推动各自生态系统的增长和发展。例如，Arbitrum DAO 最近投票决定建立“游戏催化剂计划”，该计划将为游戏开发商和工作室提供资助和投资。

The program was funded with more than 200 million ARB tokens, which were valued at approximately $200 million at the time of the announcement.

该计划由超过 2 亿个 ARB 代币资助，在宣布时价值约为 2 亿美元。

“Right now, all the L2s are really focused on growth, and a lot of that growth is through token incentives,” Ian Unsworth, the founder of Kairos Research, told Blockworks.

Kairos Research 创始人 Ian Unsworth 告诉 Blockworks：“目前，所有 L2 都真正专注于增长，而其中很大一部分增长是通过代币激励实现的。”

“There’s nothing wrong with that, it’s obviously with the intent of getting to a point where there is so much value being created on the chain itself that it can begin flowing back to the DAO or token holders themselves.”

“这没有什么问题，显然是为了在链上创造如此多的价值，以至于它可以开始回流到 DAO 或代币持有者本身。”

It is worth noting that the combined market value of major rollup tokens has remained relatively stable despite the large token unlocks and sell pressure, according to Bautista.

Bautista 表示，值得注意的是，尽管代币解锁和抛售压力较大，但主要汇总代币的总市值仍保持相对稳定。

“The total market cap of the top five L2 tokens has held steady at around $6 billion since December 2023, suggesting that the market’s overall valuation of top L2s has held steady despite the price declines,” he said.

他表示：“自 2023 年 12 月以来，前五名 L2 代币的总市值一直稳定在 60 亿美元左右，这表明尽管价格下跌，但市场对顶级 L2 代币的整体估值仍保持稳定。”

Moreover, if crypto markets experience a broad-based rally, it could potentially lift L2 tokens despite the planned supply increases, according to Brian Rudick, director of research at crypto trading firm GSR.

此外，加密货币交易公司 GSR 研究总监 Brian Rudick 表示，如果加密货币市场出现广泛反弹，尽管计划增加供应量，但 L2 代币仍有可能上涨。

“Unlocks are typically a headwind for token prices, but the largest determinant on how much [or] whether they impact price will likely be the market backdrop,” Rudick told Blockworks.

Rudick 告诉 Blockworks：“解锁通常是代币价格的阻力，但决定其对价格影响程度或是否影响的最大因素可能是市场背景。”

“As we’ve seen in previous cycles, large unlocks are often much more easily absorbed when crypto prices are running.”

“正如我们在之前的周期中看到的那样，当加密货币价格上涨时，大量解锁通常更容易被吸收。”