比特幣的興衰與再崛起

唐納德·川普曾經是加密貨幣懷疑論者。現在他的連任使得比特幣的價格劇烈波動。

Donald Trump used to be a crypto sceptic, but now his re-election campaign is sending the volatile price of bitcoin sky-high.

唐納德·川普曾經是加密貨幣懷疑論者，但現在他的連任競選正在導致比特幣價格的波動飆升。

Key points:

要點：

Some analysts expect the value of bitcoin to keep rising, particularly if the US government is using taxpayer money to purchase large amounts of the cryptocurrency.

一些分析師預計比特幣的價值將繼續上漲，特別是如果美國政府使用納稅人的錢購買大量加密貨幣的話。

One of the best-known examples is the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), an emergency stockpile of crude oil that was created by Gerald Ford's government in 1975.

最著名的例子之一是美國戰略石油儲備 (SPR)，這是傑拉爾德福特政府於 1975 年創建的緊急原油儲備。

At this stage, the most concrete proposal for a bitcoin reserve comes from a pro-crypto junior Republican senator called Cynthia Lummis.

現階段，關於比特幣儲備的最具體建議來自一位支持加密貨幣的初級共和黨參議員辛西婭·魯米斯 (Cynthia Lummis)。

It's no secret that Donald Trump was dead against bitcoin and cryptocurrencies a few years ago.

唐納德·川普幾年前堅決反對比特幣和加密貨幣，這已不是什麼秘密。

During his first term as US president, Mr Trump said cryptocurrencies are "not money", and that its value was "highly volatile and based on thin air".

川普在擔任美國總統的第一個任期內表示，加密貨幣“不是貨幣”，其價值“高度波動且憑空而來”。

"For too long, our government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin," he said at the time.

「長期以來，我們的政府違反了每個比特幣愛好者都熟知的基本規則：永遠不要出售你的比特幣，」他當時說。

But fast forward to 2024, and the Republican politician has changed his tune.

但快進到 2024 年，這位共和黨政客改變了態度。

During his re-election campaign, Mr Trump was the headline speaker at a bitcoin convention. He launched his own crypto venture (called World Liberty Financial) and received millions of dollars in donations (in the form of bitcoin, ether and XRP) from supporters, including a handful of pro-crypto billionaires.

在連任競選期間，川普先生是比特幣大會的主要發言人。他創辦了自己的加密貨幣企業（名為World Liberty Financial），並從支持者（包括少數支持加密貨幣的億萬富翁）那裡收到了數百萬美元的捐款（以比特幣、以太幣和XRP 的形式）。

Since pledging to make America the "crypto capital of the planet", Mr Trump's promises to enact pro-cryptocurrency policies have helped push the value of bitcoin to new records (as high as $US108,000 ($173,000) in mid-December).

自從承諾讓美國成為「地球的加密之都」以來，川普承諾制定支持加密貨幣的政策，幫助將比特幣的價值推向新紀錄（12 月中旬高達 108,000 美元（173,000 美元））。

Mr Trump has also appointed cryptocurrency advocates to key roles in his administration.

川普也任命加密貨幣倡導者擔任其政府中的關鍵角色。

However, one of Mr Trump's more controversial policies is the creation of a "strategic bitcoin reserve" — which would essentially require the US to stockpile bitcoin and hold onto it for a substantial period of time.

然而，川普更具爭議性的政策之一是建立「戰略比特幣儲備」——這實際上要求美國儲存比特幣並在相當長的時間內持有它。

At this stage, there isn't much detail on what a strategic reserve would look like. Some analysts expect the value of the highly volatile cryptocurrency to keep rising, particularly if the US government is using taxpayer money to purchase large amounts.

現階段，關於戰略儲備的具體情況還沒有太多細節。一些分析師預計，這種高度波動的加密貨幣的價值將繼續上漲，特別是如果美國政府使用納稅人的錢進行大量購買的話。

What is a strategic reserve?

什麼是戰略儲備？

When people talk about "strategic reserves", they're most likely thinking about oil.

當人們談論「戰略儲備」時，他們很可能想到的是石油。

One of the best-known examples is the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), an emergency stockpile of crude oil that was created by Gerald Ford's government in 1975.

最著名的例子之一是美國戰略石油儲備 (SPR)，這是傑拉爾德福特政府於 1975 年創建的緊急原油儲備。

This was in response to the Arab oil embargo, which caused great damage to the US economy (with petrol prices, inflation and unemployment surging).

這是對阿拉伯石油禁運的回應，該禁運對美國經濟造成了巨大損害（汽油價格、通貨膨脹和失業率飆升）。

More recently, in 2022, these crude stockpiles came in handy — when the Biden administration released a record 180 million barrels from the SPR to dampen the impact of an oil price spike caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

最近，在 2022 年，這些原油庫存派上了用場——當時拜登政府從 SPR 中釋放了創紀錄的 1.8 億桶原油，以抑制俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭造成的油價飆升的影響。

China also has strategic reserves, containing millions of tonnes worth of copper, aluminium, zinc and other metals that are crucial to its property and tech industries.

中國也擁有戰略儲備，其中包括價值數百萬噸的銅、鋁、鋅和其他對其房地產和科技產業至關重要的金屬。

Canada also gets a special mention for being the only country to have a maple syrup strategic reserve — the supply of which fell to 3.1 million kilos last year, its lowest in 16 years.

加拿大也因成為唯一擁有楓糖漿戰略儲備的國家而受到特別提及——去年楓糖漿的供應量降至 310 萬公斤，為 16 年來的最低水平。

The idea is that these commodity stockpiles can be released during emergencies, to minimise the impact of supply shortages and inflation shocks.

這個想法是，這些大宗商品庫存可以在緊急情況下釋放，以盡量減少供應短缺和通膨衝擊的影響。

It's quite clear that bitcoin, which has only been in existence for 15 years, has nothing in common with oil, industrial metals and maple syrup.

很明顯，比特幣只存在了 15 年，與石油、工業金屬和楓糖漿沒有任何共同點。

While a backup supply of oil, for example, can be used as fuel for tanks and fighter jets during national emergencies, the usefulness of bitcoin as an emergency resource is questionable.

例如，雖然備用石油供應可以在國家緊急情況下用作坦克和戰鬥機的燃料，但比特幣作為緊急資源的有用性值得懷疑。

And while the government buying bitcoin could help crypto investors by driving up prices, its benefits to the economy are harder to discern.

儘管政府購買比特幣可以透過推高價格來幫助加密貨幣投資者，但對經濟的好處卻很難辨別。

The practicality of a bitcoin reserve

比特幣儲備的實用性

Mr Trump told a crowd of supporters at the Nashville Bitcoin Convention in May that the US government would never sell off its bitcoin holdings if he won the election.

川普在 5 月的納許維爾比特幣大會上對一群支持者表示，如果他贏得大選，美國政府絕對不會出售其持有的比特幣。

Many put faith in crypto and got burnt, and now regulators are circling

許多人對加密貨幣抱持信心，但結果卻被燒毀，現在監管機構正在盤旋

Will a new era of regulation kill or strengthen cryptocurrencies?

新的監管時代會扼殺還是加強加密貨幣？

"For too long, our government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin," he said at the time.

「長期以來，我們的政府違反了每個比特幣愛好者都熟知的基本規則：永遠不要出售你的比特幣，」他當時說。

But the United States already owns around 200,000 bitcoin tokens worth more than $US21 billion ($33.6 billion).

但美國已經擁有約 20 萬個比特幣代幣，價值超過 210 億美元（336 億美元）。

It was the result of the US government seizing bitcoin from criminal syndicates, including its high-profile shutdown of illegal drug marketplace Silk Road.

這是美國政府從犯罪集團手中沒收比特幣的結果，其中包括高調關閉非法毒品市場絲綢之路。

At this stage, the most concrete proposal for a bitcoin reserve comes from a pro-crypto junior Republican senator called Cynthia Lummis. (She previously interviewed for the role of Mr Trump's interior secretary, but was unsuccessful.)

現階段，關於比特幣儲備的最具體建議來自一位支持加密貨幣的初級共和黨參議員辛西婭·魯米斯 (Cynthia Lummis)。 （她此前曾面試過川普內政部長的職位，但沒有成功。）

In July, she circulated a bill in Washington

7月，她在華盛頓傳閱了一項法案