比特币的兴衰与再崛起

唐纳德·特朗普曾经是加密货币怀疑论者。现在他的连任使得比特币的价格剧烈波动。

Donald Trump used to be a crypto sceptic, but now his re-election campaign is sending the volatile price of bitcoin sky-high.

唐纳德·特朗普曾经是加密货币怀疑论者，但现在他的连任竞选正在导致比特币价格的波动飙升。

Key points:

要点：

Some analysts expect the value of bitcoin to keep rising, particularly if the US government is using taxpayer money to purchase large amounts of the cryptocurrency.

一些分析师预计比特币的价值将继续上涨，特别是如果美国政府使用纳税人的钱购买大量加密货币的话。

One of the best-known examples is the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), an emergency stockpile of crude oil that was created by Gerald Ford's government in 1975.

最著名的例子之一是美国战略石油储备 (SPR)，这是杰拉尔德·福特政府于 1975 年创建的紧急原油储备。

At this stage, the most concrete proposal for a bitcoin reserve comes from a pro-crypto junior Republican senator called Cynthia Lummis.

现阶段，关于比特币储备的最具体建议来自一位支持加密货币的初级共和党参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯 (Cynthia Lummis)。

It's no secret that Donald Trump was dead against bitcoin and cryptocurrencies a few years ago.

唐纳德·特朗普几年前就坚决反对比特币和加密货币，这已不是什么秘密。

During his first term as US president, Mr Trump said cryptocurrencies are "not money", and that its value was "highly volatile and based on thin air".

特朗普在担任美国总统的第一个任期内表示，加密货币“不是货币”，其价值“高度波动且凭空而来”。

"For too long, our government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin," he said at the time.

“长期以来，我们的政府违反了每个比特币爱好者都熟知的基本规则：永远不要出售你的比特币，”他当时说道。

But fast forward to 2024, and the Republican politician has changed his tune.

但快进到 2024 年，这位共和党政客改变了态度。

During his re-election campaign, Mr Trump was the headline speaker at a bitcoin convention. He launched his own crypto venture (called World Liberty Financial) and received millions of dollars in donations (in the form of bitcoin, ether and XRP) from supporters, including a handful of pro-crypto billionaires.

在连任竞选期间，特朗普先生是比特币大会的主要发言人。他创办了自己的加密货币企业（名为 World Liberty Financial），并从支持者（包括少数支持加密货币的亿万富翁）那里收到了数百万美元的捐款（以比特币、以太币和 XRP 的形式）。

Since pledging to make America the "crypto capital of the planet", Mr Trump's promises to enact pro-cryptocurrency policies have helped push the value of bitcoin to new records (as high as $US108,000 ($173,000) in mid-December).

自从承诺让美国成为“地球的加密之都”以来，特朗普承诺制定支持加密货币的政策，帮助将比特币的价值推向新纪录（12 月中旬高达 108,000 美元（173,000 美元））。

Mr Trump has also appointed cryptocurrency advocates to key roles in his administration.

特朗普还任命加密货币倡导者在其政府中担任关键职务。

However, one of Mr Trump's more controversial policies is the creation of a "strategic bitcoin reserve" — which would essentially require the US to stockpile bitcoin and hold onto it for a substantial period of time.

然而，特朗普更具争议性的政策之一是建立“战略比特币储备”——这本质上要求美国储存比特币并在相当长的一段时间内持有它。

At this stage, there isn't much detail on what a strategic reserve would look like. Some analysts expect the value of the highly volatile cryptocurrency to keep rising, particularly if the US government is using taxpayer money to purchase large amounts.

现阶段，关于战略储备的具体情况还没有太多细节。一些分析师预计，这种高度波动的加密货币的价值将继续上涨，特别是如果美国政府使用纳税人的钱进行大量购买的话。

What is a strategic reserve?

什么是战略储备？

When people talk about "strategic reserves", they're most likely thinking about oil.

当人们谈论“战略储备”时，他们很可能想到的是石油。

One of the best-known examples is the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), an emergency stockpile of crude oil that was created by Gerald Ford's government in 1975.

最著名的例子之一是美国战略石油储备 (SPR)，这是杰拉尔德·福特政府于 1975 年创建的紧急原油储备。

This was in response to the Arab oil embargo, which caused great damage to the US economy (with petrol prices, inflation and unemployment surging).

这是对阿拉伯石油禁运的回应，该禁运对美国经济造成了巨大损害（汽油价格、通货膨胀和失业率飙升）。

More recently, in 2022, these crude stockpiles came in handy — when the Biden administration released a record 180 million barrels from the SPR to dampen the impact of an oil price spike caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

最近，在 2022 年，这些原油库存派上了用场——当时拜登政府从 SPR 中释放了创纪录的 1.8 亿桶原油，以抑制俄罗斯入侵乌克兰造成的油价飙升的影响。

China also has strategic reserves, containing millions of tonnes worth of copper, aluminium, zinc and other metals that are crucial to its property and tech industries.

中国还拥有战略储备，其中包括价值数百万吨的铜、铝、锌和其他对其房地产和科技行业至关重要的金属。

Canada also gets a special mention for being the only country to have a maple syrup strategic reserve — the supply of which fell to 3.1 million kilos last year, its lowest in 16 years.

加拿大还因成为唯一拥有枫糖浆战略储备的国家而受到特别提及——去年枫糖浆的供应量降至 310 万公斤，为 16 年来的最低水平。

The idea is that these commodity stockpiles can be released during emergencies, to minimise the impact of supply shortages and inflation shocks.

这个想法是，这些大宗商品库存可以在紧急情况下释放，以尽量减少供应短缺和通胀冲击的影响。

It's quite clear that bitcoin, which has only been in existence for 15 years, has nothing in common with oil, industrial metals and maple syrup.

很明显，比特币只存在了 15 年，与石油、工业金属和枫糖浆没有任何共同之处。

While a backup supply of oil, for example, can be used as fuel for tanks and fighter jets during national emergencies, the usefulness of bitcoin as an emergency resource is questionable.

例如，虽然备用石油供应可以在国家紧急情况下用作坦克和战斗机的燃料，但比特币作为紧急资源的有用性值得怀疑。

And while the government buying bitcoin could help crypto investors by driving up prices, its benefits to the economy are harder to discern.

尽管政府购买比特币可以通过推高价格来帮助加密货币投资者，但其对经济的好处却很难辨别。

The practicality of a bitcoin reserve

比特币储备的实用性

Mr Trump told a crowd of supporters at the Nashville Bitcoin Convention in May that the US government would never sell off its bitcoin holdings if he won the election.

特朗普在 5 月份的纳什维尔比特币大会上对一群支持者表示，如果他赢得大选，美国政府绝不会出售其持有的比特币。

Many put faith in crypto and got burnt, and now regulators are circling

许多人对加密货币抱有信心，但结果却被烧毁，现在监管机构正在盘旋

Will a new era of regulation kill or strengthen cryptocurrencies?

新的监管时代会扼杀还是加强加密货币？

"For too long, our government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin," he said at the time.

“长期以来，我们的政府违反了每个比特币爱好者都熟知的基本规则：永远不要出售你的比特币，”他当时说道。

But the United States already owns around 200,000 bitcoin tokens worth more than $US21 billion ($33.6 billion).

但美国已经拥有约 20 万个比特币代币，价值超过 210 亿美元（336 亿美元）。

It was the result of the US government seizing bitcoin from criminal syndicates, including its high-profile shutdown of illegal drug marketplace Silk Road.

这是美国政府从犯罪集团手中没收比特币的结果，其中包括高调关闭非法毒品市场丝绸之路。

At this stage, the most concrete proposal for a bitcoin reserve comes from a pro-crypto junior Republican senator called Cynthia Lummis. (She previously interviewed for the role of Mr Trump's interior secretary, but was unsuccessful.)

现阶段，关于比特币储备的最具体建议来自一位支持加密货币的初级共和党参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯 (Cynthia Lummis)。 （她此前曾面试过特朗普内政部长的职位，但没有成功。）

In July, she circulated a bill in Washington

7月，她在华盛顿传阅了一项法案