2024 年第四季加密貨幣展望

這份 2024 年第四季市場報告由 Techemy Capital 研究團隊為您提供。 Techemy Capital Limited是一家精品投資管理公司

This Q4 2024 market report is brought to you by the Research Team at Techemy Capital. Techemy Capital Limited is a boutique investment management company focused on digital asset management. We seek to provide fund managers and institutional investors with clear, well-researched, and cutting-edge investment opportunities. Techemy Capital Limited is an authorised Financial Services Provider to wholesale investors under New Zealand law.

這份 2024 年第四季市場報告由 Techemy Capital 研究團隊為您提供。 Techemy Capital Limited是一家專注於數位資產管理的精品投資管理公司。我們致力於為基金經理人和機構投資者提供清晰、經過充分研究和前沿的投資機會。 Techemy Capital Limited 是根據紐西蘭法律向批發投資者授權的金融服務提供者。

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2024 Q4 crypto outlook

2024 年第四季加密貨幣展望

Introduction:

介紹：

Deep into the final quarter of 2024, the global economy and cryptocurrency markets are navigating a complex landscape marked by anticipation with a touch of uncertainty. With the US Federal Reserve’s efforts to engineer a soft landing reminiscent of the 1990s and Bitcoin’s steady ascent as a digital hedge, market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. As has been the case for much of the year, Bitcoin has been steady, and threatening to break out, but as yet unable to push on to new all-time-highs. 

進入 2024 年最後一個季度，全球經濟和加密貨幣市場正處於一個複雜的格局中，充滿了預期，但也充滿了不確定性。隨著聯準會努力實現 20 世紀 90 年代的軟著陸，以及比特幣作為數位對沖工具的穩步上升，市場情緒謹慎樂觀。與今年大部分時間的情況一樣，比特幣一直保持穩定，並有突破的危險，但尚未達到新的歷史高點。

In this piece, we explore the key macro trends shaping the digital asset markets in Q4 2024. We then focus specifically on Bitcoin and Ethereum’s respective positions as we approach the end of the year before reviewing the growing relevance of meme coins and the implications this may have for the broader digital asset space.

在本文中，我們探討了影響2024 年第四季數位資產市場的關鍵宏觀趨勢。性及其可能產生的影響擁有更廣泛的數位資產空間。

90s Nostalgia and the Soft Landing

90 年代的懷舊與軟著陸

A theme running through Russell Investments’ Q4 economic outlook is 90’s nostalgia. Noel and Liam Gallagher have miraculously found a way to make up and go on tour again, while the US is seeking to deliver a soft landing, a Central Bank holy grail last pulled off in the 1990s. A soft landing is a Central Bank-driven cyclical slowdown in economic growth that ends without a period of recession. 

貫穿羅素投資第四季經濟前景的一個主題是 90 年代的懷舊。諾埃爾·加拉格爾(Noel Gallagher) 和利亞姆·加拉格爾(Liam Gallagher) 奇蹟般地找到了重修舊好的方法，並再次開始巡演，而美國正在尋求實現軟著陸，這是央行最後一次實現的聖杯是在20 世紀90 年代。軟著陸是指央行推動的經濟成長週期性放緩，但最終不會出現衰退期。

Between 1994 and 1995, the US Federal Reserve raised rates 7 times, and then a few more times in 1995. The US, under Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, was able to successfully cool off inflation without derailing the growth of the economy. Alan Blinder, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, noted that this was the “perfect soft landing that helped make Alan Greenspan a central banking legend.”

1994年至1995年間，聯準會升息7次，1995年又升息數次。聯準會前副主席艾倫·布林德指出，這是「完美的軟著陸，幫助艾倫·格林斯潘成為央行傳奇人物」。

US GDP growth. 

美國GDP成長。

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

資料來源：美國經濟分析局

Several major American institutions have assured citizens that a soft landing is coming in 2024.

美國幾家主要機構已向公民保證，2024 年將實現軟著陸。

Source: Google

來源：Google

Central Banks are often pushed into raising interest rates to deal with quickly rising inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. Following the compensatory quantitative easing that the US Federal Reserve used to deal with an economy struggling during the pandemic of 2020-2023, the money supply rose, and so did inflation. 

央行經常被迫升息，以應對快速上升的通膨並防止經濟過熱。聯準會為應對2020-2023年疫情期間陷入困境的經濟而採取了補償性量化寬鬆政策，貨幣供應量上升，通膨也隨之上升。

US inflation rate 

美國通膨率

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

資料來源：美國經濟分析局

In this economy, people needed more dollars to buy the same things, and wages could not keep up. To combat this, the Fed began a monetary tightening cycle, raising interest rates and making capital more expensive, signaling the beginning of a saver’s economy.

在這種經濟條件下，人們需要更多的美元來購買同樣的東西，而薪水卻跟不上。為了解決這個問題，聯準會開始了貨幣緊縮週期，提高利率並使資本變得更加昂貴，這標誌著儲戶經濟的開始。

Interest Rate Movements and Market Reactions

利率變動與市場反應

The US target rate began rising in March 2022. It continued ramping up before peaking in July 2023. The rate was then left flat for over a year before finally being cut in September 2024. 

美國目標利率於 2022 年 3 月開始上升。

Source: The Federal Reserve

資料來源：聯準會

US Fed Funds Rate

聯準會基金利率

This recent cut on the cusp of Q4 2024 has created hype, excitement, and bullish expectations. Russell Investments notes in its Q4 outlook: “The stakes are high. Markets are priced for a soft landing, so even a mild recession is likely to trigger a significant equity-market correction.” 

最近在 2024 年第四季前夕的降息引發了炒作、興奮和看漲預期。羅素投資公司在第四季度展望中指出：「風險很高。市場定價為軟著陸，因此即使是溫和的衰退也可能引發股市大幅調整。

Risks to the Soft Landing Narrative

軟著陸敘事的風險

S&P Global, in its Q4 outlook, predicts volatility and outlines risks that may disrupt the soft landing narrative. Labor demand has been resilient. “Despite fast policy and market interest rate increases, labor demand has remained reasonably strong.” If free-market-driven services spending and labor were to teeter and fall off, interest rates would likely have to drop more than planned to avoid a deeper recession, which could lead to overheating and a terminally dysfunctional economy.

標準普爾全球公司在第四季度展望中預測了波動性，並概述了可能破壞軟著陸敘事的風險。勞動力需求一直保持彈性。 “儘管政策和市場利率快速上漲，但勞動力需求仍然相當強勁。”如果自由市場驅動的服務支出和勞動力搖搖欲墜並下降，利率可能不得不比計劃下降更多，以避免更嚴重的衰退，這可能導致經濟過熱和最終功能失調。

This is the situation US Central Bankers have been trying to avoid, and they use it to justify their slow, steady approach to interest rate cuts. If interest rates were cut too sharply, that could trigger a hard landing. Another potential danger for a soft landing scenario is geopolitical tension. 

這是美國央行官員一直試圖避免的情況，他們用它來證明緩慢、穩定的降息方法是合理的。如果降息幅度過大，可能會引發硬著陸。軟著陸情境的另一個潛在危險是地緣政治緊張局勢。

The increasing likelihood of a land war in the Middle East combined with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine may mean the immediate and disruptive reconfiguration of supply chains and energy sourcing. These could create a risk-off environment, where market participants flee from riskier assets to safer ones.

中東爆發陸地戰爭的可能性越來越大，加上烏克蘭持續不斷的衝突，可能意味著供應鏈和能源採購將立即進行顛覆性的重組。這可能會創造一個避險環境，讓市場參與者逃離風險較高的資產，轉向更安全的資產。

Impact on Digital Assets

對數位資產的影響

A risk-off environment would be detrimental to the crypto sector, even for assets such

避險環境將不利於加密貨幣產業，即使對於諸如此類的資產也是如此。