2024 年第四季度加密货币展望

这份 2024 年第四季度市场报告由 Techemy Capital 研究团队为您提供。 Techemy Capital Limited是一家精品投资管理公司

This Q4 2024 market report is brought to you by the Research Team at Techemy Capital. Techemy Capital Limited is a boutique investment management company focused on digital asset management. We seek to provide fund managers and institutional investors with clear, well-researched, and cutting-edge investment opportunities. Techemy Capital Limited is an authorised Financial Services Provider to wholesale investors under New Zealand law.

这份 2024 年第四季度市场报告由 Techemy Capital 研究团队为您提供。 Techemy Capital Limited是一家专注于数字资产管理的精品投资管理公司。我们致力于为基金经理和机构投资者提供清晰、经过充分研究和前沿的投资机会。 Techemy Capital Limited 是根据新西兰法律向批发投资者授权的金融服务提供商。

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2024 Q4 crypto outlook

2024 年第四季度加密货币展望

Introduction:

介绍：

Deep into the final quarter of 2024, the global economy and cryptocurrency markets are navigating a complex landscape marked by anticipation with a touch of uncertainty. With the US Federal Reserve’s efforts to engineer a soft landing reminiscent of the 1990s and Bitcoin’s steady ascent as a digital hedge, market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. As has been the case for much of the year, Bitcoin has been steady, and threatening to break out, but as yet unable to push on to new all-time-highs. 

进入 2024 年最后一个季度，全球经济和加密货币市场正处于一个复杂的格局中，充满了预期，但也充满了不确定性。随着美联储努力实现 20 世纪 90 年代的软着陆，以及比特币作为数字对冲工具的稳步上升，市场情绪谨慎乐观。与今年大部分时间的情况一样，比特币一直保持稳定，并有突破的危险，但尚未达到新的历史高点。

In this piece, we explore the key macro trends shaping the digital asset markets in Q4 2024. We then focus specifically on Bitcoin and Ethereum’s respective positions as we approach the end of the year before reviewing the growing relevance of meme coins and the implications this may have for the broader digital asset space.

在本文中，我们探讨了影响 2024 年第四季度数字资产市场的关键宏观趋势。然后，在临近年底时，我们将特别关注比特币和以太坊各自的地位，然后回顾模因币日益增长的相关性及其可能产生的影响拥有更广泛的数字资产空间。

90s Nostalgia and the Soft Landing

90 年代的怀旧与软着陆

A theme running through Russell Investments’ Q4 economic outlook is 90’s nostalgia. Noel and Liam Gallagher have miraculously found a way to make up and go on tour again, while the US is seeking to deliver a soft landing, a Central Bank holy grail last pulled off in the 1990s. A soft landing is a Central Bank-driven cyclical slowdown in economic growth that ends without a period of recession. 

贯穿罗素投资第四季度经济前景的一个主题是 90 年代的怀旧。诺埃尔·加拉格尔 (Noel Gallagher) 和利亚姆·加拉格尔 (Liam Gallagher) 奇迹般地找到了重修旧好的方法，并再次开始巡演，而美国正在寻求实现软着陆，这是央行最后一次实现的圣杯是在 20 世纪 90 年代。软着陆是指央行推动的经济增长周期性放缓，但最终不会出现衰退期。

Between 1994 and 1995, the US Federal Reserve raised rates 7 times, and then a few more times in 1995. The US, under Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, was able to successfully cool off inflation without derailing the growth of the economy. Alan Blinder, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, noted that this was the “perfect soft landing that helped make Alan Greenspan a central banking legend.”

1994年至1995年间，美联储加息7次，1995年又加息数次。美国在美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘的领导下，成功地抑制了通货膨胀，而没有影响经济增长。美联储前副主席艾伦·布林德指出，这是“完美的软着陆，帮助艾伦·格林斯潘成为央行传奇人物”。

US GDP growth. 

美国GDP增长。

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

资料来源：美国经济分析局

Several major American institutions have assured citizens that a soft landing is coming in 2024.

美国几家主要机构已向公民保证，2024 年将实现软着陆。

Source: Google

来源：谷歌

Central Banks are often pushed into raising interest rates to deal with quickly rising inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. Following the compensatory quantitative easing that the US Federal Reserve used to deal with an economy struggling during the pandemic of 2020-2023, the money supply rose, and so did inflation. 

央行经常被迫加息，以应对快速上升的通胀并防止经济过热。美联储为应对2020-2023年疫情期间陷入困境的经济而采取了补偿性量化宽松政策，货币供应量上升，通胀也随之上升。

US inflation rate 

美国通胀率

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

资料来源：美国经济分析局

In this economy, people needed more dollars to buy the same things, and wages could not keep up. To combat this, the Fed began a monetary tightening cycle, raising interest rates and making capital more expensive, signaling the beginning of a saver’s economy.

在这种经济条件下，人们需要更多的美元来购买同样的东西，而工资却跟不上。为了解决这个问题，美联储开始了货币紧缩周期，提高利率并使资本变得更加昂贵，这标志着储户经济的开始。

Interest Rate Movements and Market Reactions

利率变动和市场反应

The US target rate began rising in March 2022. It continued ramping up before peaking in July 2023. The rate was then left flat for over a year before finally being cut in September 2024. 

美国目标利率于 2022 年 3 月开始上升。在 2023 年 7 月达到峰值之前继续上升。随后利率保持不变一年多，最终于 2024 年 9 月下调。

Source: The Federal Reserve

资料来源：美联储

US Fed Funds Rate

美联储基金利率

This recent cut on the cusp of Q4 2024 has created hype, excitement, and bullish expectations. Russell Investments notes in its Q4 outlook: “The stakes are high. Markets are priced for a soft landing, so even a mild recession is likely to trigger a significant equity-market correction.” 

最近在 2024 年第四季度前夕的降息引发了炒作、兴奋和看涨预期。罗素投资公司在其第四季度展望中指出：“风险很高。市场定价为软着陆，因此即使是温和的衰退也可能引发股市大幅调整。”

Risks to the Soft Landing Narrative

软着陆叙事的风险

S&P Global, in its Q4 outlook, predicts volatility and outlines risks that may disrupt the soft landing narrative. Labor demand has been resilient. “Despite fast policy and market interest rate increases, labor demand has remained reasonably strong.” If free-market-driven services spending and labor were to teeter and fall off, interest rates would likely have to drop more than planned to avoid a deeper recession, which could lead to overheating and a terminally dysfunctional economy.

标准普尔全球公司在其第四季度展望中预测了波动性，并概述了可能破坏软着陆叙事的风险。劳动力需求一直保持弹性。 “尽管政策和市场利率快速上涨，但劳动力需求仍然相当强劲。”如果自由市场驱动的服务支出和劳动力摇摇欲坠并下降，利率可能不得不比计划下降更多，以避免更严重的衰退，这可能导致经济过热和最终功能失调。

This is the situation US Central Bankers have been trying to avoid, and they use it to justify their slow, steady approach to interest rate cuts. If interest rates were cut too sharply, that could trigger a hard landing. Another potential danger for a soft landing scenario is geopolitical tension. 

这是美国央行官员一直试图避免的情况，他们用它来证明缓慢、稳定的降息方法是合理的。如果降息幅度过大，可能会引发硬着陆。软着陆情景的另一个潜在危险是地缘政治紧张局势。

The increasing likelihood of a land war in the Middle East combined with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine may mean the immediate and disruptive reconfiguration of supply chains and energy sourcing. These could create a risk-off environment, where market participants flee from riskier assets to safer ones.

中东爆发陆地战争的可能性越来越大，加上乌克兰持续不断的冲突，可能意味着供应链和能源采购将立即进行颠覆性的重组。这可能会创造一个避险环境，让市场参与者逃离风险较高的资产，转向更安全的资产。

Impact on Digital Assets

对数字资产的影响

A risk-off environment would be detrimental to the crypto sector, even for assets such

避险环境将不利于加密货币行业，即使对于诸如此类的资产也是如此。