選舉前的市場操縱：兩種比特幣的故事

當市場下跌而你要贏得選舉時你會怎麼做？如果您是政治家，您的首要目標是確保連任。

Crypto icon Arthur Hayes has shared his thoughts on the upcoming U.S. presidential election and its potential impact on the crypto market.

加密貨幣偶像 Arthur Hayes 分享了他對即將到來的美國總統大選及其對加密貨幣市場的潛在影響的看法。

Hayes believes that politicians, especially those facing re-election, are likely to prioritize measures that will stimulate the economy and boost asset prices. He uses the example of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who is facing an uphill battle against incumbent Donald J. Trump.

海耶斯認為，政治家，尤其是那些面臨連任的政治家，可能會優先考慮刺激經濟和推高資產價格的措施。他以民主黨總統候選人卡馬拉·哈里斯為例，她正面臨著與現任唐納德·J·川普的艱苦戰鬥。

According to Hayes, Harris, who is now serving as vice president, is likely being advised by former President Barack Obama on the importance of avoiding a 2008-style Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in the lead-up to the election.

海耶斯表示，現任副總統哈里斯可能會得到前總統巴拉克·歐巴馬(Barack Obama)的建議，了解在選舉前避免2008年式的全球金融危機(GFC)的重要性。

While President Biden is largely out of the picture due to his advanced age, Harris is now essentially running the show, Hayes notes. He adds that George W. Bush faced the GFC in 2008, which contributed to Obama's victory as he wasn't responsible for the downturn.

海耶斯指出，雖然拜登總統由於年事已高，基本上已經淡出了人們的視線，但哈里斯現在基本上正在掌控全局。他補充說，喬治·W·布希 (George W. Bush) 在 2008 年遭遇了全球金融危機，這為歐巴馬的勝利做出了貢獻，因為他對經濟衰退沒有責任。

Now, Harris must avoid a similar fate, Hayes says.

海耶斯說，現在，哈里斯必須避免類似的命運。

“The Widow Maker, yen carry trade, and the unwind”

“寡婦製造者、日圓套利交易和平倉”

Hayes goes on to discuss the yen carry trade and its central role in a potential financial crisis.

海耶斯接著討論了日圓套利交易及其在潛在金融危機中的核心作用。

The yen carry trade involves borrowing yen at low-interest rates and investing in assets that offer higher returns. If the yen strengthens, traders lose money when repaying the loan, but if it weakens, they profit.

日圓套利交易涉及以低利率借入日圓並投資於回報率較高的資產。如果日圓升值，交易者在償還貸款時就會虧損，但如果日圓貶值，他們就會獲利。

However, Japan Inc.—which includes the Bank of Japan (BOJ), corporations, and pension funds—doesn't hedge its yen borrowing because the BOJ can print unlimited yen.

然而，日本公司——包括日本銀行（BOJ）、企業和退休基金——並不對其日圓借款進行對沖，因為日本央行可以無限印製日圓。

A Deutsche Bank report titled “The World's Biggest Carry Trade” examines why the yen carry trade hasn't collapsed despite Japan's massive debt and hedge funds betting against it and always losing, a phenomenon that earned the term “Widow Maker” for these failed bets.

德意志銀行一份題為《世界上最大的套利交易》的報告探討了為什麼日元套利交易沒有崩潰，儘管日本有巨額債務，對沖基金做空日元套利交易並且總是失敗，這一現象因這些失敗的押注而贏得了「寡婦製造者」的稱號。

According to Hayes, Western investors fail to grasp Japan's collective financial system, which differs from the Western model.

海耶斯認為，西方投資者未能掌握日本的集體金融體系，這與西方模式不同。

The liability side of Japan's balance sheet includes bank reserves and bonds, both funded at minimal costs due to the BOJ's policies.

日本資產負債表的負債方包括銀行準備金和債券，由於日本央行的政策，兩者都以最低成本提供資金。

Hayes adds that the yen's weakness has led to a widening interest rate differential between the BOJ and the Federal Reserve, further benefiting Japan.

海耶斯補充說，日圓疲軟導致日本央行和聯準會之間的利差擴大，進一步使日本受益。

But then the yen got too weak, and the BOJ had to step in. A dollar-yen exchange rate of 162 was unsustainable due to rising inflation at home. The BOJ wants to slowly exit the trade, but the market expects an unwind.

但隨後日圓變得太弱，日本央行不得不介入。日本央行希望慢慢退出交易，但市場預計會出現平倉。

The question now is the pace of normalization under Governor Kazuo Ueda. Unwinding the carry trade would require the BOJ to raise interest rates and sell its huge JGB holdings. Without BOJ intervention, JGB yields would rise to match inflation, increasing debt costs.

現在的問題是行長上田一夫領導下的正常化步伐。解除套利交易將要求日本央行提高利率並出售其持有的巨額日本公債。如果沒有日本央行幹預，日本公債殖利率將上升以匹配通膨，從而增加債務成本。

“What it got to do with Bitcoin”

“它與比特幣有什麼關係”

Hayes also highlights an interesting correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar-yen exchange rate.

海耶斯也強調了比特幣和美元兌日圓匯率之間有趣的相關性。

He notes that if Bitcoin rises when the dollar-yen strengthens or weakens sharply, it signals market expectations of a bailout if the yen gets too strong, which is known as “convex-Bitcoin.”

他指出，如果比特幣在美元兌日圓大幅走強或走弱時上漲，則表示市場預期日圓變得太強時將獲得救助，這被稱為「凸比特幣」。

On the other hand, if Bitcoin falls as the yen strengthens and rises as the yen weakens, it shows a correlation with traditional financial markets, which is called “correlated-Bitcoin.”

另一方面，如果比特幣隨著日圓走強而下跌，隨著日圓走弱而上漲，則表現出與傳統金融市場的相關性，稱為「相關比特幣」。

Hayes says to watch Bitcoin's behavior closely. If it trades in a convex manner, it means a bailout is expected, and liquidity from the U.S. Treasury is sufficient. This is a sign to aggressively add positions as the market anticipates intervention.

海耶斯表示要密切注意比特幣的行為。如果其交易呈凸狀，則意味著預計將有救助，並且美國財政部的流動性充足。這是隨著市場預期幹預而積極增加部位的訊號。

If Bitcoin trades in a correlated manner, aligning with traditional markets, it might be better to sit out and wait for a clear market direction.

如果比特幣以關聯方式進行交易，與傳統市場保持一致，那麼最好是袖手旁觀，等待明確的市場方向。

According to Hayes, understanding Bitcoin's correlation with the dollar-yen pair can provide insights into market sentiment and potential bailouts, which can guide traders on whether to take aggressive positions or wait for the market to settle.

海耶斯表示，了解比特幣與美元兌日圓的相關性可以深入了解市場情緒和潛在的救助，從而指導交易者是採取激進的部位還是等待市場穩定下來。

In his words, “If you must use leverage, use it wisely and constantly monitor your positions. When you have a levered position, you better be babysitting your Bitcoin or shitcoins. Otherwise, you will get liquidated.”

用他的話來說，「如果你必須使用槓桿，請明智地使用它並不斷監控你的部位。當你擁有槓桿部位時，你最好照顧好你的比特幣或垃圾幣。否則，你就會被清算。