选举前的市场操纵：两种比特币的故事

当市场下跌而你要赢得选举时你会怎么做？如果您是一名政治家，您的首要目标是确保连任。

Crypto icon Arthur Hayes has shared his thoughts on the upcoming U.S. presidential election and its potential impact on the crypto market.

加密货币偶像 Arthur Hayes 分享了他对即将到来的美国总统大选及其对加密货币市场的潜在影响的看法。

Hayes believes that politicians, especially those facing re-election, are likely to prioritize measures that will stimulate the economy and boost asset prices. He uses the example of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who is facing an uphill battle against incumbent Donald J. Trump.

海耶斯认为，政治家，尤其是那些面临连任的政治家，可能会优先考虑刺激经济和推高资产价格的措施。他以民主党总统候选人卡马拉·哈里斯为例，她正面临着与现任唐纳德·J·特朗普的艰苦战斗。

According to Hayes, Harris, who is now serving as vice president, is likely being advised by former President Barack Obama on the importance of avoiding a 2008-style Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in the lead-up to the election.

海耶斯表示，现任副总统哈里斯可能会得到前总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)的建议，了解在选举前避免2008年式的全球金融危机(GFC)的重要性。

While President Biden is largely out of the picture due to his advanced age, Harris is now essentially running the show, Hayes notes. He adds that George W. Bush faced the GFC in 2008, which contributed to Obama's victory as he wasn't responsible for the downturn.

海耶斯指出，虽然拜登总统由于年事已高，基本上已经淡出了人们的视线，但哈里斯现在基本上正在掌控全局。他补充说，乔治·W·布什 (George W. Bush) 在 2008 年遭遇了全球金融危机，这为奥巴马的胜利做出了贡献，因为他对经济衰退没有责任。

Now, Harris must avoid a similar fate, Hayes says.

海耶斯说，现在，哈里斯必须避免类似的命运。

“The Widow Maker, yen carry trade, and the unwind”

“寡妇制造者、日元套利交易和平仓”

Hayes goes on to discuss the yen carry trade and its central role in a potential financial crisis.

海耶斯接着讨论了日元套利交易及其在潜在金融危机中的核心作用。

The yen carry trade involves borrowing yen at low-interest rates and investing in assets that offer higher returns. If the yen strengthens, traders lose money when repaying the loan, but if it weakens, they profit.

日元套利交易涉及以低利率借入日元并投资于回报率较高的资产。如果日元升值，交易者在偿还贷款时就会亏损，但如果日元贬值，他们就会获利。

However, Japan Inc.—which includes the Bank of Japan (BOJ), corporations, and pension funds—doesn't hedge its yen borrowing because the BOJ can print unlimited yen.

然而，日本公司——包括日本银行（BOJ）、企业和养老基金——并不对其日元借款进行对冲，因为日本央行可以无限印制日元。

A Deutsche Bank report titled “The World's Biggest Carry Trade” examines why the yen carry trade hasn't collapsed despite Japan's massive debt and hedge funds betting against it and always losing, a phenomenon that earned the term “Widow Maker” for these failed bets.

德意志银行一份题为《世界上最大的套利交易》的报告探讨了为什么日元套利交易没有崩溃，尽管日本有巨额债务，对冲基金做空日元套利交易并且总是失败，这一现象因这些失败的押注而赢得了“寡妇制造者”的称号。 。

According to Hayes, Western investors fail to grasp Japan's collective financial system, which differs from the Western model.

海耶斯认为，西方投资者未能掌握日本的集体金融体系，这与西方模式不同。

The liability side of Japan's balance sheet includes bank reserves and bonds, both funded at minimal costs due to the BOJ's policies.

日本资产负债表的负债方包括银行准备金和债券，由于日本央行的政策，两者都以最低成本提供资金。

Hayes adds that the yen's weakness has led to a widening interest rate differential between the BOJ and the Federal Reserve, further benefiting Japan.

海耶斯补充说，日元疲软导致日本央行和美联储之间的利差扩大，进一步使日本受益。

But then the yen got too weak, and the BOJ had to step in. A dollar-yen exchange rate of 162 was unsustainable due to rising inflation at home. The BOJ wants to slowly exit the trade, but the market expects an unwind.

但随后日元变得太弱，日本央行不得不介入。由于国内通胀上升，美元兑日元汇率达到162是不可持续的。日本央行希望慢慢退出交易，但市场预计会出现平仓。

The question now is the pace of normalization under Governor Kazuo Ueda. Unwinding the carry trade would require the BOJ to raise interest rates and sell its huge JGB holdings. Without BOJ intervention, JGB yields would rise to match inflation, increasing debt costs.

现在的问题是行长上田一夫领导下的正常化步伐。解除套利交易将要求日本央行提高利率并出售其持有的巨额日本国债。如果没有日本央行干预，日本国债收益率将上升以匹配通胀，从而增加债务成本。

“What it got to do with Bitcoin”

“它与比特币有什么关系”

Hayes also highlights an interesting correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar-yen exchange rate.

海耶斯还强调了比特币和美元兑日元汇率之间有趣的相关性。

He notes that if Bitcoin rises when the dollar-yen strengthens or weakens sharply, it signals market expectations of a bailout if the yen gets too strong, which is known as “convex-Bitcoin.”

他指出，如果比特币在美元兑日元大幅走强或走弱时上涨，则表明市场预期日元变得太强时将获得救助，这被称为“凸比特币”。

On the other hand, if Bitcoin falls as the yen strengthens and rises as the yen weakens, it shows a correlation with traditional financial markets, which is called “correlated-Bitcoin.”

另一方面，如果比特币随着日元走强而下跌，随着日元走弱而上涨，则表现出与传统金融市场的相关性，称为“相关比特币”。

Hayes says to watch Bitcoin's behavior closely. If it trades in a convex manner, it means a bailout is expected, and liquidity from the U.S. Treasury is sufficient. This is a sign to aggressively add positions as the market anticipates intervention.

海耶斯表示要密切关注比特币的行为。如果其交易呈凸状，则意味着预计将有救助，并且美国财政部的流动性充足。这是随着市场预期干预而积极增加头寸的信号。

If Bitcoin trades in a correlated manner, aligning with traditional markets, it might be better to sit out and wait for a clear market direction.

如果比特币以关联方式进行交易，与传统市场保持一致，那么最好是袖手旁观，等待明确的市场方向。

According to Hayes, understanding Bitcoin's correlation with the dollar-yen pair can provide insights into market sentiment and potential bailouts, which can guide traders on whether to take aggressive positions or wait for the market to settle.

海耶斯表示，了解比特币与美元兑日元的相关性可以深入了解市场情绪和潜在的救助，从而指导交易者是采取激进的头寸还是等待市场稳定下来。

In his words, “If you must use leverage, use it wisely and constantly monitor your positions. When you have a levered position, you better be babysitting your Bitcoin or shitcoins. Otherwise, you will get liquidated.”

用他的话来说，“如果你必须使用杠杆，请明智地使用它并不断监控你的头寸。当你拥有杠杆头寸时，你最好照顾好你的比特币或垃圾币。否则，你就会被清算。”