新玩家進入了比特幣字段，導致上一個週期預測不再正確

CryptoQuant的首席執行官，著名的鏈分析師Ki Young Ju反映了他先前的預測“比特幣牛週期結束了”。

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant and a known on-chain analyst, is sharing his thoughts on his earlier prediction that "the Bitcoin bull cycle was over."

CryptoFuant首席執行官，著名的鏈分析師Ki Young Ju正在分享他對“比特幣牛週期結束的預測”的想法。

Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.

兩個月前，我說公牛週期結束了，但我錯了。 #BitCoin銷售壓力正在緩解，並且通過ETF大量流入。

In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically…

過去，比特幣市場非常簡單。主要玩家是舊鯨魚，礦工和新的零售投資者，基本上是…

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant (cryptoquant.com) (@ki_young_ju) May 9, 2025

Ki Young Ju，CryptoQuant（cryptoquant.com）（@ki_young_ju）的首席執行官，2025年5月9日

The CryptoQuant CEO shared a chart called “Signal 365 MA” and noted how he made a mistake. He explained how the market is changing with new players, including institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

加密首席執行官分享了一個名為“ Signal 365 MA”的圖表，並指出他是如何犯錯的。他解釋了新參與者的市場如何變化，包括機構投資者和交易所交易資金（ETFS）。

A market transformed: New players, new rules

市場變革：新參與者，新規則

In his post, Ki Young Ju explained why his earlier claim that “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over” was false. The market used to be simpler, with miners, individual investors, and ‘old’ whales playing a game like ‘Musical Chairs,’ which made Bitcoin cycles predictable.

Ki Young Ju在他的帖子中解釋了為什麼他先前聲稱“比特幣牛週期結束”是錯誤的。市場過去更簡單，礦工，個人投資者和“舊鯨魚”在玩諸如“音樂椅”之類的遊戲，這使比特幣週期可預測。

When retail liquidity dried up and whales cashed out, a sequence of sell-offs signaled a cycle peak. “It was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak,” he stated. But that model is no longer relevant.

當零售流動性乾燥並撥出鯨魚時，一系列拋售標誌著周期峰。他說：“預測週期峰是相對容易的。”但是該模型不再相關。

Today’s Bitcoin market is far more diverse. We have new institutional investors, MicroStrategy (MICROSTRATEGY)(MSTR), ETFs, and government agencies entering the market. The launch of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs has greatly expanded institutional liquidity, with daily ETF volumes now approaching $10 billion.

當今的比特幣市場要多樣化。我們有新的機構投資者，MicroStrategy（MicroStrategy）（MSTR），ETFS和政府機構進入市場。 11個比特幣現場ETF的推出大大擴大了機構流動性，每天的ETF量現在接近100億美元。

“New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi,” Ki Young Ju said, highlighting this change.

Ki Young Ju說：“新的流動性來源和數量變得越來越不確定，這表明比特幣市場與Tradfi合併，” Ki Young Ju說，強調了這一變化。

Since these new participants can offset even intense selling pressure, he now thinks the emphasis should be on institutional inflows rather than whale sell-offs.

由於這些新參與者甚至可以抵消巨大的銷售壓力，因此他現在認為重點應該放在機構流入而不是鯨魚拋售上。

This shift is graphically supported by the “Signal 365 MA” chart, which compares the price of Bitcoin to its 365-day moving average (MA) from 2013 to 2025.

“ Signal 365 MA”圖以圖形方式支持這種轉變，該圖將比特幣的價格與2013年至2025年的365天移動平均線（MA）進行了比較。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

In the past, the chart has displayed severe dives below the 365 MA during bear markets (e.g., 2018, 2022) and strong peaks above it during bull runs (e.g., 2017, 2021).

過去，該圖在熊市期間顯示出低於365 MA的嚴重潛水（例如，2018，2022），在公牛跑期間（例如，2017年，2021年）上面的峰值高峰。

However, the price of Bitcoin is closer to the 365 MA in 2025, and corrections seem to be longer but shallower.

但是，比特幣的價格更接近2025年的365 MA，而校正似乎更長但更淺。

Looking Ahead: A New Era for Bitcoin?

展望未來：比特幣的新時代？

Ki Young Ju is still cautiously optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. He said that although the market was “sluggish while absorbing new liquidity,” “recent price action is extremely bullish,” fueled by large inflows of ETFs and a reduction in selling pressure. He did point out, though, that the signs are still ambiguous, with no distinct bullish or bearish signal for the profit-taking cycle.

Ki Young Ju對比特幣的未來仍然謹慎樂觀。他說，儘管市場“在吸收新的流動性的同時呆滯”，但“最近的價格行動是極為看好的”，這是由於大量ETF的流入和銷售壓力的降低所吸引。不過，他確實指出，這些跡象仍然模棱兩可，沒有明顯的看跌或看跌信號來獲利週期。

Another layer of complexity is introduced by the increasing impact of traditional finance. Although there has been an increase in the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, this link is not always stable, and Bitcoin’s volatility is still problematic.

傳統金融的越來越多的影響引入了另一層複雜性。儘管比特幣與標準普爾500指數之間的相關性有所增加，但此鏈接並不總是穩定的，比特幣的波動仍然存在問題。

Investors must adapt to this evolving environment. Understanding the role of institutional liquidity and its benefits and risks will be crucial in 2025, as the previous principles governing Bitcoin cycles may no longer apply. Staying informed is more important than ever, whether this marks a temporary change or the dawn of a new chapter for Bitcoin.

投資者必須適應這個不斷發展的環境。了解機構流動性及其利益和風險的作用將在2025年至關重要，因為先前管理比特幣週期的原則可能不再適用。保持知情比以往任何時候都更重要，無論是暫時的變化還是比特幣的新章節的曙光。