New players have entered the Bitcoin field, leading the previous cycle prediction to no longer be correct

Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant and a renowned on-chain analyst, reflected on his earlier prediction that “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over.”

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant and a known on-chain analyst, is sharing his thoughts on his earlier prediction that "the Bitcoin bull cycle was over."

Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.

In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically…

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant (cryptoquant.com) (@ki_young_ju) May 9, 2025

The CryptoQuant CEO shared a chart called “Signal 365 MA” and noted how he made a mistake. He explained how the market is changing with new players, including institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

A market transformed: New players, new rules

In his post, Ki Young Ju explained why his earlier claim that “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over” was false. The market used to be simpler, with miners, individual investors, and ‘old’ whales playing a game like ‘Musical Chairs,’ which made Bitcoin cycles predictable.

When retail liquidity dried up and whales cashed out, a sequence of sell-offs signaled a cycle peak. “It was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak,” he stated. But that model is no longer relevant.

Today’s Bitcoin market is far more diverse. We have new institutional investors, MicroStrategy (MICROSTRATEGY)(MSTR), ETFs, and government agencies entering the market. The launch of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs has greatly expanded institutional liquidity, with daily ETF volumes now approaching $10 billion.

“New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi,” Ki Young Ju said, highlighting this change.

Since these new participants can offset even intense selling pressure, he now thinks the emphasis should be on institutional inflows rather than whale sell-offs.

This shift is graphically supported by the “Signal 365 MA” chart, which compares the price of Bitcoin to its 365-day moving average (MA) from 2013 to 2025.

Source: CryptoQuant

In the past, the chart has displayed severe dives below the 365 MA during bear markets (e.g., 2018, 2022) and strong peaks above it during bull runs (e.g., 2017, 2021).

However, the price of Bitcoin is closer to the 365 MA in 2025, and corrections seem to be longer but shallower.

Looking Ahead: A New Era for Bitcoin?

Ki Young Ju is still cautiously optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. He said that although the market was “sluggish while absorbing new liquidity,” “recent price action is extremely bullish,” fueled by large inflows of ETFs and a reduction in selling pressure. He did point out, though, that the signs are still ambiguous, with no distinct bullish or bearish signal for the profit-taking cycle.

Another layer of complexity is introduced by the increasing impact of traditional finance. Although there has been an increase in the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, this link is not always stable, and Bitcoin’s volatility is still problematic.

Investors must adapt to this evolving environment. Understanding the role of institutional liquidity and its benefits and risks will be crucial in 2025, as the previous principles governing Bitcoin cycles may no longer apply. Staying informed is more important than ever, whether this marks a temporary change or the dawn of a new chapter for Bitcoin.