新玩家进入了比特币字段，导致上一个周期预测不再正确

CryptoQuant的首席执行官，著名的链分析师Ki Young Ju反映了他先前的预测“比特币牛周期结束了”。

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant and a known on-chain analyst, is sharing his thoughts on his earlier prediction that "the Bitcoin bull cycle was over."

CryptoFuant首席执行官，著名的链分析师Ki Young Ju正在分享他对“比特币牛周期结束的预测”的想法。

Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.

两个月前，我说公牛周期结束了，但我错了。 #BitCoin销售压力正在缓解，并且通过ETF大量流入。

In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically…

过去，比特币市场非常简单。主要玩家是旧鲸鱼，矿工和新的零售投资者，基本上是…

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant (cryptoquant.com) (@ki_young_ju) May 9, 2025

CryptoQuant（cryptoquant.com）首席执行官Ki Young Ju（@ki_young_ju）5月9日，2025年5月9日

The CryptoQuant CEO shared a chart called “Signal 365 MA” and noted how he made a mistake. He explained how the market is changing with new players, including institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

加密首席执行官分享了一个名为“ Signal 365 MA”的图表，并指出他是如何犯错的。他解释了新参与者的市场如何变化，包括机构投资者和交易所交易资金（ETFS）。

A market transformed: New players, new rules

市场变革：新参与者，新规则

In his post, Ki Young Ju explained why his earlier claim that “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over” was false. The market used to be simpler, with miners, individual investors, and ‘old’ whales playing a game like ‘Musical Chairs,’ which made Bitcoin cycles predictable.

Ki Young Ju在他的帖子中解释了为什么他先前声称“比特币牛周期结束”是错误的。市场过去更简单，矿工，个人投资者和“旧鲸鱼”在玩诸如“音乐椅”之类的游戏，这使比特币周期可预测。

When retail liquidity dried up and whales cashed out, a sequence of sell-offs signaled a cycle peak. “It was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak,” he stated. But that model is no longer relevant.

当零售流动性干燥并拨出鲸鱼时，一系列抛售标志着周期峰。他说：“预测周期峰是相对容易的。”但是该模型不再相关。

Today’s Bitcoin market is far more diverse. We have new institutional investors, MicroStrategy (MICROSTRATEGY)(MSTR), ETFs, and government agencies entering the market. The launch of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs has greatly expanded institutional liquidity, with daily ETF volumes now approaching $10 billion.

当今的比特币市场要多样化。我们有新的机构投资者，MicroStrategy（MicroStrategy）（MSTR），ETFS和政府机构进入市场。 11个比特币现场ETF的推出大大扩大了机构流动性，每天的ETF量现在接近100亿美元。

“New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi,” Ki Young Ju said, highlighting this change.

Ki Young Ju说：“新的流动性来源和数量变得越来越不确定，这表明比特币市场与Tradfi合并，” Ki Young Ju说，强调了这一变化。

Since these new participants can offset even intense selling pressure, he now thinks the emphasis should be on institutional inflows rather than whale sell-offs.

由于这些新参与者甚至可以抵消巨大的销售压力，因此他现在认为重点应该放在机构流入而不是鲸鱼抛售上。

This shift is graphically supported by the “Signal 365 MA” chart, which compares the price of Bitcoin to its 365-day moving average (MA) from 2013 to 2025.

“ Signal 365 MA”图以图形方式支持这种转变，该图将比特币的价格与2013年至2025年的365天移动平均线（MA）进行了比较。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

In the past, the chart has displayed severe dives below the 365 MA during bear markets (e.g., 2018, 2022) and strong peaks above it during bull runs (e.g., 2017, 2021).

过去，该图在熊市期间显示出低于365 MA的严重潜水（例如，2018，2022），在公牛跑期间（例如，2017年，2021年）上面的峰值高峰。

However, the price of Bitcoin is closer to the 365 MA in 2025, and corrections seem to be longer but shallower.

但是，比特币的价格更接近2025年的365 MA，而校正似乎更长但更浅。

Looking Ahead: A New Era for Bitcoin?

展望未来：比特币的新时代？

Ki Young Ju is still cautiously optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. He said that although the market was “sluggish while absorbing new liquidity,” “recent price action is extremely bullish,” fueled by large inflows of ETFs and a reduction in selling pressure. He did point out, though, that the signs are still ambiguous, with no distinct bullish or bearish signal for the profit-taking cycle.

Ki Young Ju对比特币的未来仍然谨慎乐观。他说，尽管市场“在吸收新的流动性的同时呆滞”，但“最近的价格行动是极为看好的”，这是由于大量ETF的流入和销售压力的降低所吸引。不过，他确实指出，这些迹象仍然模棱两可，没有明显的看跌或看跌信号来获利周期。

Another layer of complexity is introduced by the increasing impact of traditional finance. Although there has been an increase in the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, this link is not always stable, and Bitcoin’s volatility is still problematic.

传统金融的越来越多的影响引入了另一层复杂性。尽管比特币与标准普尔500指数之间的相关性有所增加，但此链接并不总是稳定的，比特币的波动仍然存在问题。

Investors must adapt to this evolving environment. Understanding the role of institutional liquidity and its benefits and risks will be crucial in 2025, as the previous principles governing Bitcoin cycles may no longer apply. Staying informed is more important than ever, whether this marks a temporary change or the dawn of a new chapter for Bitcoin.

投资者必须适应这个不断发展的环境。了解机构流动性及其利益和风险的作用将在2025年至关重要，因为先前管理比特币周期的原则可能不再适用。保持知情比以往任何时候都更重要，无论是暂时的变化还是比特币的新章节的曙光。