從峰到谷：極端一年

回顧2024年春天，比特幣生態系統就像一個令人眼花nove亂的超新星。

Author: Luke, Mars Finance

作者：盧克，火星財務

From peak to trough: a year of extremes in the Bitcoin ecosystem

從峰到谷：比特幣生態系統中極端的一年

Looking back to the spring of 2024, the scene of the Bitcoin ecosystem was like a dazzling supernova. The rise of the BRC-20 token standard, relying on the inscription craze of the Ordinals protocol, ignited the market's enthusiasm. Inscriptions - the innovation of embedding unique data directly into Bitcoin's smallest unit, the "satoshi" - made on-chain activities take off like a rocket. The prices of tokens such as ORDI skyrocketed, and some assets doubled or even multiplied their market value in just a few weeks. Projects such as SATS and RATS also joined the carnival, bringing astonishing returns. Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume surged, gas fees soared, and miners' income rose. This is a golden moment, where innovation, speculation and enthusiasm intertwined, as if heralding a new era for Bitcoin - not only as digital gold, but also a vibrant decentralized finance (DeFi) platform.

回顧2024年春天，比特幣生態系統的場景就像一個令人眼花no亂的超新星。 BRC-20代幣標準的興起，依賴於序列協議的銘文熱潮激發了市場的熱情。銘文 - 將獨特的數據直接嵌入到比特幣的最小單元“ satoshi”中的創新 - 鏈上的活動像火箭一樣脫穎而出。諸如Ordi之類的代幣的價格飛漲，一些資產在短短幾週內將其市場價值翻了一番。 SAT和大鼠等項目也加入了狂歡節，帶來了驚人的回報。比特幣的鏈交易量飆升，汽油費飆升，礦工的收入上升。這是一個黃金時刻，創新，猜測和熱情交織在一起，就好像預示了比特幣的新時代 - 不僅是數字黃金，而且是一個充滿活力的分散融資（DEFI）平台。

However, the craze in the crypto world is often short-lived. By mid-2024, the narrative of the Bitcoin ecosystem has fallen from heaven to the bottom. The prices of those tokens that once soared - ORDI, SATS, etc. - plummeted, retracing more than 95% from their highs. On-chain activity has shrunk sharply, inscription transaction volume has continued to decline, and the pace of new project releases has slowed to a near standstill. Community sentiment has turned from high to low, the long-awaited airdrop has been disappointing, and the Runes protocol - the highly anticipated evolution of BRC-20 - has cooled rapidly after a brief craze. By early 2025, the Bitcoin ecosystem is no longer the darling of the market, but has become a "reverse indicator" of sector rotation, symbolizing unrealized potential and investor fatigue.

但是，加密世界中的熱潮通常是短暫的。到2024年中，比特幣生態系統的敘述已經從天堂落下到底部。那些曾經飆升的代幣的價格 - Ordi，sats等。鏈上的活動急劇縮小，銘文交易量繼續下降，新項目發行的速度已減慢到幾乎停滯狀態。社區情緒已從高低轉變為低位，期待已久的空投令人失望，符文協議（BRC -20的備受期待的演變）在短暫的熱潮之後迅速冷卻。到2025年初，比特幣生態系統不再是市場的寵兒，而是已成為行業輪換的“反向指標”，象徵著未實現的潛力和投資者的疲勞。

At this time of depression, the Bitcoin ecosystem suddenly rejuvenated in the past week. ORDI soared nearly 97% in six days, PUPS became the vanguard of the rebound with a 127% increase, and SATS almost doubled from its low point this year, up 87%. Tokens such as NALS, BANK, and BounceBit (BB) rose between 40% and 80% per week, and mainstream assets such as BRC-20 and Runes collectively ushered in a recovery. The inflow of funds on the chain has increased significantly, and the market's attention has once again focused on this long-dormant field. Is this a short-lived flash of light, or the starting point of a greater recovery? To answer this question, we need to analyze the driving force of the rebound, the structural dilemma of the ecosystem, and the conditions required for a lasting revival.

在抑鬱症的時候，比特幣生態系統在過去一周中突然恢復活力。 Ordi在六天內飆升了近97％，幼崽成為籃板的先鋒隊，增長了127％，與今年的低點相比，SAT幾乎翻了一番，增長了87％。 NALS，Bank和Bouncebit（BB）等代幣每週上升40％至80％，而BRC-20等主流資產則統治著符合恢復。連鎖店的資金流入量大大增加了，市場的注意力再次集中在這個長期休眠的領域上。這是短暫的光閃光，還是更大的恢復的起點？為了回答這個問題，我們需要分析反彈的驅動力，生態系統的結構困境以及持久復興所需的條件。

The logic of the rebound: sentiment repair and capital rotation

反彈的邏輯：情感維修和資本旋轉

Market Style Switch: The Forsaken Strikes Back

市場風格開關：被遺棄的罷工

The crypto market has always been known for its cyclicality. This rebound in the Bitcoin ecosystem perfectly fits the classic logic of "low-expectation reversal". After a year of continuous selling, the valuations of most tokens in the ecosystem have been compressed to the extreme. Head assets such as ORDI and SATS have fallen more than 90% from their highs and are regarded by the market as abandoned children with "no trading logic". However, it is in this mood of despair that the spark of rebound often ignites quietly.

加密市場一直以其周期性而聞名。比特幣生態系統中的反彈完全符合“低期望逆轉”的經典邏輯。經過一年的持續銷售，生態系統中大多數令牌的估值已被壓縮到極端。諸如Ordi和SAT之類的頭部資產已從其最高點下降了90％以上，並被市場視為“無交易邏輯”的廢棄兒童。但是，正是在這種絕望的心情中，反彈的火花經常悄悄地點燃。

The trigger for this wave of market movement came largely from the switching of market styles. Ethereum previously rebounded 50% amid huge doubts from the community, proving the explosive power of undervalued assets when sentiment reverses. This phenomenon encourages funds to flow to sectors with lower valuations and more adequate corrections, and the Bitcoin ecosystem, which has been neglected by the market for a long time, has become a natural rotation target. Since these tokens have low liquidity and historically low valuations, a small amount of buying can trigger drastic price fluctuations, creating amazing short-term elasticity.

這種市場轉移浪潮的觸發因素主要來自市場風格的轉換。以太坊以前在社區引起了極大的疑問中反彈了50％，證明了情緒逆轉時被低估的資產的爆炸力。這種現象鼓勵資金流向具有較低估值和更適當校正的部門，而很長一段時間以來一直被市場忽略的比特幣生態系統已成為自然旋轉目標。由於這些代幣的流動性低，歷史上的估值低，因此少量購買會觸發巨大的價格波動，從而產生驚人的短期彈性。

Speculative carnival: the charm of marginal assets

投機狂歡節：邊際資產的魅力

Another driver of the rebound is the inherent speculative nature of the crypto market. Compared with the steady trend of blue-chip assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, niche tokens such as PUPS and BSSB attract short-term funds with high volatility. These projects often rely on niche protocols or meme narratives, lack solid fundamentals, but become a paradise for speculators due to their high-risk and high-return characteristics. PUPS's recent 127% increase is an example: a little-known token quickly became the focus of capital chasing by igniting market sentiment. This phenomenon is not new in the crypto market, but it explains why the Bitcoin ecosystem - with a large number of low-market-cap tokens - can become a hot spot for speculation in a short period of time.

反彈的另一個驅動力是加密市場的固有投機性。與比特幣和以太坊等藍芯片資產的穩定趨勢相比，諸如幼崽和BSSB之類的利基標記吸引了高波動性的短期基金。這些項目通常依賴於利基方案或模因敘事，缺乏堅實的基本原理，但由於其高風險和高回報的特徵而成為投機者的天堂。 PUPS最近的127％增加就是一個例子：一個鮮為人知的令牌很快成為了通過點燃市場情緒來追逐資本的重點。這種現像在加密貨幣市場上並不是什麼新鮮事物，但它解釋了為什麼比特幣生態系統（具有大量低市場帽代幣）會在短時間內成為猜測的熱點。

The recovery of on-chain data

鏈接數據的恢復

On-chain data also adds evidence to the

鏈上數據還為