从峰到谷：极端一年

回顾2024年春天，比特币生态系统就像一个令人眼花nove乱的超新星。

Author: Luke, Mars Finance

作者：卢克，火星财务

From peak to trough: a year of extremes in the Bitcoin ecosystem

从峰到谷：比特币生态系统中极端的一年

Looking back to the spring of 2024, the scene of the Bitcoin ecosystem was like a dazzling supernova. The rise of the BRC-20 token standard, relying on the inscription craze of the Ordinals protocol, ignited the market's enthusiasm. Inscriptions - the innovation of embedding unique data directly into Bitcoin's smallest unit, the "satoshi" - made on-chain activities take off like a rocket. The prices of tokens such as ORDI skyrocketed, and some assets doubled or even multiplied their market value in just a few weeks. Projects such as SATS and RATS also joined the carnival, bringing astonishing returns. Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume surged, gas fees soared, and miners' income rose. This is a golden moment, where innovation, speculation and enthusiasm intertwined, as if heralding a new era for Bitcoin - not only as digital gold, but also a vibrant decentralized finance (DeFi) platform.

回顾2024年春天，比特币生态系统的场景就像一个令人眼花no乱的超新星。 BRC-20代币标准的兴起，依赖于序列协议的铭文热潮激发了市场的热情。铭文 - 将独特的数据直接嵌入到比特币的最小单元“ satoshi”中的创新 - 链上的活动像火箭一样脱颖而出。诸如Ordi之类的代币的价格飞涨，一些资产在短短几周内将其市场价值翻了一番。 SAT和大鼠等项目也加入了狂欢节，带来了惊人的回报。比特币的链交易量飙升，汽油费飙升，矿工的收入上升。这是一个黄金时刻，创新，猜测和热情交织在一起，就好像预示了比特币的新时代 - 不仅是数字黄金，而且是一个充满活力的分散融资（DEFI）平台。

However, the craze in the crypto world is often short-lived. By mid-2024, the narrative of the Bitcoin ecosystem has fallen from heaven to the bottom. The prices of those tokens that once soared - ORDI, SATS, etc. - plummeted, retracing more than 95% from their highs. On-chain activity has shrunk sharply, inscription transaction volume has continued to decline, and the pace of new project releases has slowed to a near standstill. Community sentiment has turned from high to low, the long-awaited airdrop has been disappointing, and the Runes protocol - the highly anticipated evolution of BRC-20 - has cooled rapidly after a brief craze. By early 2025, the Bitcoin ecosystem is no longer the darling of the market, but has become a "reverse indicator" of sector rotation, symbolizing unrealized potential and investor fatigue.

但是，加密世界中的热潮通常是短暂的。到2024年中，比特币生态系统的叙述已经从天堂落下到底部。那些曾经飙升的代币的价格 - Ordi，sats等。链上的活动急剧缩小，铭文交易量继续下降，新项目发行的速度已减慢到几乎停滞状态。社区情绪已从高低转变为低位，期待已久的空投令人失望，符文协议（BRC -20的备受期待的演变）在短暂的热潮之后迅速冷却。到2025年初，比特币生态系统不再是市场的宠儿，而是已成为行业轮换的“反向指标”，象征着未实现的潜力和投资者的疲劳。

At this time of depression, the Bitcoin ecosystem suddenly rejuvenated in the past week. ORDI soared nearly 97% in six days, PUPS became the vanguard of the rebound with a 127% increase, and SATS almost doubled from its low point this year, up 87%. Tokens such as NALS, BANK, and BounceBit (BB) rose between 40% and 80% per week, and mainstream assets such as BRC-20 and Runes collectively ushered in a recovery. The inflow of funds on the chain has increased significantly, and the market's attention has once again focused on this long-dormant field. Is this a short-lived flash of light, or the starting point of a greater recovery? To answer this question, we need to analyze the driving force of the rebound, the structural dilemma of the ecosystem, and the conditions required for a lasting revival.

在抑郁症的时候，比特币生态系统在过去一周中突然恢复活力。 Ordi在六天内飙升了近97％，幼崽成为篮板的先锋队，增长了127％，与今年的低点相比，SAT几乎翻了一番，增长了87％。 NALS，Bank和Bouncebit（BB）等代币每周上升40％至80％，而BRC-20等主流资产则统治着符合恢复。连锁店的资金流入量大大增加了，市场的注意力再次集中在这个长期休眠的领域上。这是短暂的光闪光，还是更大的恢复的起点？为了回答这个问题，我们需要分析反弹的驱动力，生态系统的结构困境以及持久复兴所需的条件。

The logic of the rebound: sentiment repair and capital rotation

反弹的逻辑：情感维修和资本旋转

Market Style Switch: The Forsaken Strikes Back

市场风格开关：被遗弃的罢工

The crypto market has always been known for its cyclicality. This rebound in the Bitcoin ecosystem perfectly fits the classic logic of "low-expectation reversal". After a year of continuous selling, the valuations of most tokens in the ecosystem have been compressed to the extreme. Head assets such as ORDI and SATS have fallen more than 90% from their highs and are regarded by the market as abandoned children with "no trading logic". However, it is in this mood of despair that the spark of rebound often ignites quietly.

加密市场一直以其周期性而闻名。比特币生态系统中的反弹完全符合“低期望逆转”的经典逻辑。经过一年的持续销售，生态系统中大多数令牌的估值已被压缩到极端。诸如Ordi和SAT之类的头部资产已从其最高点下降了90％以上，并被市场视为“无交易逻辑”的废弃儿童。但是，正是在这种绝望的心情中，反弹的火花经常悄悄地点燃。

The trigger for this wave of market movement came largely from the switching of market styles. Ethereum previously rebounded 50% amid huge doubts from the community, proving the explosive power of undervalued assets when sentiment reverses. This phenomenon encourages funds to flow to sectors with lower valuations and more adequate corrections, and the Bitcoin ecosystem, which has been neglected by the market for a long time, has become a natural rotation target. Since these tokens have low liquidity and historically low valuations, a small amount of buying can trigger drastic price fluctuations, creating amazing short-term elasticity.

这种市场转移浪潮的触发因素主要来自市场风格的转换。以太坊以前在社区引起了极大的疑问中反弹了50％，证明了情绪逆转时被低估的资产的爆炸力。这种现象鼓励资金流向具有较低估值和更适当校正的部门，而很长一段时间以来一直被市场忽略的比特币生态系统已成为自然旋转目标。由于这些代币的流动性低，历史上的估值低，因此少量购买会触发巨大的价格波动，从而产生惊人的短期弹性。

Speculative carnival: the charm of marginal assets

投机狂欢节：边际资产的魅力

Another driver of the rebound is the inherent speculative nature of the crypto market. Compared with the steady trend of blue-chip assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, niche tokens such as PUPS and BSSB attract short-term funds with high volatility. These projects often rely on niche protocols or meme narratives, lack solid fundamentals, but become a paradise for speculators due to their high-risk and high-return characteristics. PUPS's recent 127% increase is an example: a little-known token quickly became the focus of capital chasing by igniting market sentiment. This phenomenon is not new in the crypto market, but it explains why the Bitcoin ecosystem - with a large number of low-market-cap tokens - can become a hot spot for speculation in a short period of time.

反弹的另一个驱动力是加密市场的固有投机性。与比特币和以太坊等蓝芯片资产的稳定趋势相比，诸如幼崽和BSSB之类的利基标记吸引了高波动性的短期基金。这些项目通常依赖于利基方案或模因叙事，缺乏坚实的基本原理，但由于其高风险和高回报的特征而成为投机者的天堂。 PUPS最近的127％增加就是一个例子：一个鲜为人知的令牌很快成为了通过点燃市场情绪来追逐资本的重点。这种现象在加密货币市场上并不是什么新鲜事物，但它解释了为什么比特币生态系统（具有大量低市场帽代币）会在短时间内成为猜测的热点。

The recovery of on-chain data

链接数据的恢复

On-chain data also adds evidence to the

链上数据还为