世界是Netflix（NASDAQ：NFLX）牡蠣。

這就是過去幾年的感覺，因為該公司將所有氧氣從視頻流市場中吸收了。

In a world obsessed with streaming entertainment, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has become synonymous with the industry.

在一個痴迷於流媒體娛樂的世界中，Netflix（NASDAQ：NFLX）已成為該行業的代名詞。

Its vast global presence and huge catalog of content give it a competitive advantage over streaming rivals, which is why viewers flock to the service in droves. As a result, revenue continues to march higher, while profits are soaring.

它龐大的全球影響力和龐大的內容目錄使它比流媒體競爭對手具有競爭優勢，這就是為什麼觀眾湧向服務的原因。結果，收入繼續提高，利潤飆升。

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After reporting stellar fourth-quarter results and a strong start to the new year, management does not think the growth party is over just yet. According to reporting from The Wall Street Journal, the company is aiming to reach a market cap of $1 trillion by 2030, which would be around double its current level at $500 billion.

在報導了出色的第四季度成績和新年的強勁開端之後，管理層認為增長黨還沒有結束。根據《華爾街日報》的報導，該公司的目標是到2030年達到1萬億美元的市值，目前的水平約為5000億美元。

Here's the math behind the analysis and whether the company can hit these targets by the end of the decade.

這是分析背後的數學，以及公司是否可以在十年末達到這些目標。

Global expansion and pricing power

全球擴張和定價能力

Video streaming processed through the cloud has turned the media sector into a truly worldwide game. Netflix has taken advantage of this global pie, investing to produce video specifically in markets such as Europe, Latin America, Korea, and India.

通過雲處理處理的視頻流將媒體部門變成了真正的全球遊戲。 Netflix利用了這個全球派，投資於在歐洲，拉丁美洲，韓國和印度等市場上專門製作視頻。

This global expansion is why it eclipsed 300 million total subscribers at the end of 2024, making it the largest pure-play premium video streamer in the world. With a global population of 8 billion and rising use of the internet every year, there is plenty of room to expand its total subscribers in the years to come.

全球擴張就是為什麼它在2024年底黯然失色的總訂戶3億美元，這使其成為世界上最大的純高級視頻流媒體。每年的全球人口為80億，使用互聯網的使用量增加，在未來幾年中，有足夠的空間可以擴大其總訂戶。

Another factor for the company's success is pricing power. In the U.S., its premium subscription tier has gone from $11.99 a month in 2013 to $24.99 currently. This more than doubling in monthly subscription fees has helped revenue grow by close to 600% in the last 10 years.

公司成功的另一個因素是定價能力。在美國，其高級訂閱層已從2013年的每月11.99美元增加到目前的24.99美元。在過去的10年中，每月訂閱費用增加了一倍以上，這使收入增長了近600％。

More importantly, it has helped the company gain some operating leverage over its cost base, with operating income inflecting higher to $11.3 billion in the last few years. Free cash flow is now positive at $7.5 billion over the last 12 months, giving the company the flexibility to keep pushing for more growth globally.Image source: Getty Images.

更重要的是，它幫助公司在其成本基礎上獲得了一些運營槓桿作用，過去幾年的營業收入增長到113億美元。在過去的12個月中，自由現金流現在為75億美元，使公司具有繼續推動全球增長的靈活性。圖片來源：Getty Images。

A focus on sports and advertisements

專注於體育和廣告

By 2030, Netflix aims for its advertising tier to generate around $9 billion in global ad sales, up from an estimated $2 billion currently. This advertising tier was launched in 2023 and is a huge driver of new sign-ups for Netflix.

到2030年，Netflix的旨在使其廣告層產生約90億美元的全球廣告銷售，而目前估計為20億美元。這個廣告層是在2023年推出的，是Netflix新註冊的巨大驅動力。

As it rolls out globally, it will hopefully see even more customers sign up. Advertising has historically been a huge revenue driver for the media industry that Netflix decided to lay off of for a long while. Now, it is turning on this new revenue stream and hopes to see huge growth in the years to come.

隨著它在全球範圍內推出，它將有望看到更多的客戶註冊。從歷史上看，廣告一直是Netflix決定將很長一段時間放置的媒體行業的巨大收入推動力。現在，它正在打開這一新的收入來源，並希望在未來幾年看到巨大的增長。

An easy way to connect with advertisers is by adding sports content. Sports leagues are one of the biggest draws for large advertisers because they bring in millions of live viewers for games, something that is not happening with traditional TV shows or movies anymore.

與廣告客戶建立聯繫的一種簡單方法是添加體育內容。體育聯賽是大型廣告商的最大吸引力之一，因為它們引進了數百萬現場觀眾的遊戲，這是傳統電視節目或電影不再發生的。

Investors should track Netflix's investments into sports streaming rights in the years to come. They may have a large impact on the advertising revenue for the business.

在未來幾年中，投資者應跟踪Netflix對體育流動權的投資。他們可能會對企業的廣告收入產生重大影響。

NFLX Operating Margin (TTM)data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months

YCHARTS的NFLX操作保證金（TTM）數據； TTM =落後12個月

The math to a $1 trillion market cap

達到1萬億美元市值的數學

According to the reporting, Netflix aims to double its revenue to $80 billion in 2030 and triple its operating income to around $30 billion. Advertising revenue of $9 billion will be a large part of that equation.

根據該報告，Netflix的目標是將其收入翻一番，達到2030年的800億美元，並將其營業收入增加三倍，約為300億美元。廣告收入為90億美元將是該方程式的很大一部分。

How will the company do it? It hopes to grow its total subscribers to 410 million compared to 300 million at the end of 2024. However, that would only lead to about 30% growth in revenue assuming no changes to subscription pricing.

公司將如何做？它希望將其總訂閱者增加到4.1億，而到2024年底，其總訂閱者為3億。但是，假設訂閱定價沒有變化，則只會導致收入增長約30％。

What this means is that Netflix will need to continue increasing the price of its subscription service simultaneously with growing advertising sales if it hopes to double revenue in the next five years. This is a tall task, but one it is poised to achieve.

這意味著，如果Netflix希望在未來五年內獲得一倍的收入，那麼Netflix將需要繼續同時提高其訂閱服務的價格。這是一項艱鉅的任務，但它有望實現。

Operating income tripling to $30 billion feels doable as well. Expanding operating margins is not something a company can do indefinitely, but Netflix has consistently pushed up its operating margin in the last 10 years, hitting 28% in the last 12 months. I think the company can keep expanding its profit margins as it scales up to greater heights in the years to come.

營業收入增加到300億美元，這也是可行的。公司無限期可以做到的業務利潤率並不是一項無限期的事情，但是Netflix在過去10年中一直在提高其營業利潤率，在過去的12個月中達到了28％。我認為，隨著未來幾年的擴大到更高的高度，該公司可以繼續擴大其利潤率。

That $30 billion in operating income likely equates to $25 billion in net income when factoring in corporate tax rates. Should Netflix be valued at a trillion-dollar market cap if it generates $25 billion in net income? Maybe.

在公司稅率方面，這筆300億美元的營業收入可能相當於250億美元的淨收入。如果Netflix產生250億美元的淨收入，是否應該以萬億美元的市值重視？或許。