世界是Netflix（NASDAQ：NFLX）牡蛎。

这就是过去几年的感觉，因为该公司将所有氧气从视频流市场中吸收了。

In a world obsessed with streaming entertainment, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has become synonymous with the industry.

在一个痴迷于流媒体娱乐的世界中，Netflix（NASDAQ：NFLX）已成为该行业的代名词。

Its vast global presence and huge catalog of content give it a competitive advantage over streaming rivals, which is why viewers flock to the service in droves. As a result, revenue continues to march higher, while profits are soaring.

它庞大的全球影响力和庞大的内容目录使它比流媒体竞争对手具有竞争优势，这就是为什么观众涌向服务的原因。结果，收入继续提高，利润飙升。

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After reporting stellar fourth-quarter results and a strong start to the new year, management does not think the growth party is over just yet. According to reporting from The Wall Street Journal, the company is aiming to reach a market cap of $1 trillion by 2030, which would be around double its current level at $500 billion.

在报道了出色的第四季度成绩和新年的强劲开端之后，管理层认为增长党还没有结束。根据《华尔街日报》的报道，该公司的目标是到2030年达到1万亿美元的市值，目前的水平约为5000亿美元。

Here's the math behind the analysis and whether the company can hit these targets by the end of the decade.

这是分析背后的数学，以及公司是否可以在十年末达到这些目标。

Global expansion and pricing power

全球扩张和定价能力

Video streaming processed through the cloud has turned the media sector into a truly worldwide game. Netflix has taken advantage of this global pie, investing to produce video specifically in markets such as Europe, Latin America, Korea, and India.

通过云处理处理的视频流将媒体部门变成了真正的全球游戏。 Netflix利用了这个全球派，投资于在欧洲，拉丁美洲，韩国和印度等市场上专门制作视频。

This global expansion is why it eclipsed 300 million total subscribers at the end of 2024, making it the largest pure-play premium video streamer in the world. With a global population of 8 billion and rising use of the internet every year, there is plenty of room to expand its total subscribers in the years to come.

全球扩张就是为什么它在2024年底黯然失色的总订户3亿美元，这使其成为世界上最大的纯高级视频流媒体。每年的全球人口为80亿，使用互联网的使用量增加，在未来几年中，有足够的空间可以扩大其总订户。

Another factor for the company's success is pricing power. In the U.S., its premium subscription tier has gone from $11.99 a month in 2013 to $24.99 currently. This more than doubling in monthly subscription fees has helped revenue grow by close to 600% in the last 10 years.

公司成功的另一个因素是定价能力。在美国，其高级订阅层已从2013年的每月11.99美元增加到目前的24.99美元。在过去的10年中，每月订阅费用增加了一倍以上，这使收入增长了近600％。

More importantly, it has helped the company gain some operating leverage over its cost base, with operating income inflecting higher to $11.3 billion in the last few years. Free cash flow is now positive at $7.5 billion over the last 12 months, giving the company the flexibility to keep pushing for more growth globally.Image source: Getty Images.

更重要的是，它帮助公司在其成本基础上获得了一些运营杠杆作用，过去几年的营业收入增长到113亿美元。在过去的12个月中，自由现金流现在为75亿美元，使公司具有继续推动全球增长的灵活性。图片来源：Getty Images。

A focus on sports and advertisements

专注于体育和广告

By 2030, Netflix aims for its advertising tier to generate around $9 billion in global ad sales, up from an estimated $2 billion currently. This advertising tier was launched in 2023 and is a huge driver of new sign-ups for Netflix.

到2030年，Netflix的旨在使其广告层产生约90亿美元的全球广告销售，而目前估计为20亿美元。这个广告层是在2023年推出的，是Netflix新注册的巨大驱动力。

As it rolls out globally, it will hopefully see even more customers sign up. Advertising has historically been a huge revenue driver for the media industry that Netflix decided to lay off of for a long while. Now, it is turning on this new revenue stream and hopes to see huge growth in the years to come.

随着它在全球范围内推出，它将有望看到更多的客户注册。从历史上看，广告一直是Netflix决定将很长一段时间放置的媒体行业的巨大收入推动力。现在，它正在打开这一新的收入来源，并希望在未来几年看到巨大的增长。

An easy way to connect with advertisers is by adding sports content. Sports leagues are one of the biggest draws for large advertisers because they bring in millions of live viewers for games, something that is not happening with traditional TV shows or movies anymore.

与广告客户建立联系的一种简单方法是添加体育内容。体育联赛是大型广告商的最大吸引力之一，因为它们引进了数百万现场观众的游戏，这是传统电视节目或电影不再发生的。

Investors should track Netflix's investments into sports streaming rights in the years to come. They may have a large impact on the advertising revenue for the business.

在未来几年中，投资者应跟踪Netflix对体育流动权的投资。他们可能会对企业的广告收入产生重大影响。

NFLX Operating Margin (TTM)data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months

YCHARTS的NFLX操作保证金（TTM）数据； TTM =落后12个月

The math to a $1 trillion market cap

达到1万亿美元市值的数学

According to the reporting, Netflix aims to double its revenue to $80 billion in 2030 and triple its operating income to around $30 billion. Advertising revenue of $9 billion will be a large part of that equation.

根据该报告，Netflix的目标是将其收入翻一番，达到2030年的800亿美元，并将其营业收入增加三倍，约为300亿美元。广告收入为90亿美元将是该方程式的很大一部分。

How will the company do it? It hopes to grow its total subscribers to 410 million compared to 300 million at the end of 2024. However, that would only lead to about 30% growth in revenue assuming no changes to subscription pricing.

公司将如何做？它希望将其总订阅者增加到4.1亿，而到2024年底，其总订阅者为3亿。但是，假设订阅定价没有变化，则只会导致收入增长约30％。

What this means is that Netflix will need to continue increasing the price of its subscription service simultaneously with growing advertising sales if it hopes to double revenue in the next five years. This is a tall task, but one it is poised to achieve.

这意味着，如果Netflix希望在未来五年内获得一倍的收入，那么Netflix将需要继续同时提高其订阅服务的价格。这是一项艰巨的任务，但它有望实现。

Operating income tripling to $30 billion feels doable as well. Expanding operating margins is not something a company can do indefinitely, but Netflix has consistently pushed up its operating margin in the last 10 years, hitting 28% in the last 12 months. I think the company can keep expanding its profit margins as it scales up to greater heights in the years to come.

营业收入增加到300亿美元，这也是可行的。公司无限期可以做到的业务利润率并不是一项无限期的事情，但是Netflix在过去10年中一直在提高其营业利润率，在过去的12个月中达到了28％。我认为，随着未来几年的扩大到更高的高度，该公司可以继续扩大其利润率。

That $30 billion in operating income likely equates to $25 billion in net income when factoring in corporate tax rates. Should Netflix be valued at a trillion-dollar market cap if it generates $25 billion in net income? Maybe.

在公司税率方面，这笔300亿美元的营业收入可能相当于250亿美元的净收入。如果Netflix产生250亿美元的净收入，是否应该以万亿美元的市值重视？或许。