窄幅繁榮：當前週期代幣供需不匹配

凱文凱利 (Kevin Kelly) 和傑森帕古拉托斯 (Jason Pagoulatos) 表示，雖然 BTC 和以太坊在去年強勁復甦，但市場的其他大部分仍在迎頭趕上

This year has been a tale of two markets. On the one hand, BTC and ETH have staged a remarkable comeback, rallying 130% and 100%, respectively, over the last 12 months. But while the majors have been making new highs, much of the rest of the market has yet to join the party.

今年是兩個市場的故事。一方面，BTC 和 ETH 出現了驚人的反彈，在過去 12 個月內分別上漲了 130% 和 100%。不過，儘管主要股票不斷創出新高，但市場上的其他大部分股票尚未加入這一行列。

aggregate crypto market cap rose by 50% year-over-year, largely driven by a wave of new tokens, particularly memecoins, being launched at an unprecedented rate

加密貨幣總市值年增 50%，主要是由一波新代幣（尤其是 memecoin）以前所未有的速度推出推動的

At the same time, we’ve seen a growing number of token unlocks from large protocols and dApps start to flood the market, as vesting dates come due from the wave of VC investments a couple years ago

同時，我們看到越來越多的大型協議和 dApp 的代幣解鎖開始湧入市場，因為幾年前的創投浪潮已經確定了行使日期

Meanwhile, we’ve seen a 50% year-over-year increase in the number of $1 billion market cap coins. More tokens at higher valuations require more capital to support their prices

同時，我們發現市值 10 億美元的代幣數量年增了 50%。更多估值較高的代幣需要更多資金來支撐其價格

This narrow boom has been a key talking point among our team throughout the year. The consensus used to be that a rising BTC price resulted in a trickle-down wealth effect for ETH, and eventually would spillover into the long tail of “altcoins” – an endearing term commonly used to describe all the other crypto assets outside the Big Two “majors.” We saw this dynamic play out last cycle. When BTC and ETH were up, so was everything else.

這種狹窄的繁榮一直是我們團隊全年的關鍵議題。過去的共識是，BTC 價格上漲導致 ETH 產生涓滴財富效應，並最終溢出到“山寨幣”的長尾——這是一個可愛的術語，通常用來描述兩大巨頭之外的所有其他加密資產“專業。我們在上個週期看到了這種動態的發揮。當 BTC 和 ETH 上漲時，其他一切也上漲。

This time around, the majors feel more disconnected than ever from the rest of the market, especially BTC. Despite its ~130% rise over the last 12 months, we haven’t seen the “Everything Rally” many were anticipating by now. Sure, there have been small pockets of outperformance – Solana, AI, memecoins – but a majority of the crypto market has largely underperformed.

這一次，各大巨頭感覺與市場其他部分（尤其是比特幣）的脫節比以往任何時候都更加嚴重。儘管過去 12 個月上漲了約 130%，但我們目前還沒有看到許多人期待的「一切上漲」。當然，也有一小部分錶現出色——Solana、人工智慧、迷因幣——但大多數加密貨幣市場的表現基本上都表現不佳。

So what gives? How can BTC and ETH be rallying so strongly, yet the rest of the market feels disconnected? To answer this question, we need to understand the tale of the tape this cycle: Dispersion.

那什麼給出呢？ BTC 和 ETH 為何反彈如此強勁，而市場其他部分卻感覺脫節？要回答這個問題，我們需要了解本週期磁帶的故事：分散。

All markets are simply a function of supply and demand. Crypto markets have grown considerably over the last several years, but so too has the aggregate supply of new tokens, and the crypto market is currently suffering from a substantial supply-side imbalance.

所有市場都只是供給和需求的函數。過去幾年，加密貨幣市場大幅成長，但新代幣的總供應量也隨之成長，而加密貨幣市場目前正遭受嚴重的供給面失衡。

Let’s break down the key drivers of this imbalance:

讓我們來分析一下造成這種不平衡的關鍵因素：

The rise of DIY token launchpads (like pump.fun) has sparked a surge in new tokens being launched, most of them memecoins. For example, we saw 200 new tokens launch on BNB Chain in January alone

DIY 代幣啟動板（如 Pump.fun）的興起引發了新代幣的推出激增，其中大多數是模因幣。例如，僅一月份我們就看到 BNB 鏈上推出了 200 個新代幣

Another major difference compared to last cycle is the lackluster growth in crypto credit and lending, which helped fuel the buying frenzy we saw in 2021

與上一個週期相比的另一個主要區別是加密貨幣信貸和貸款的成長乏力，這助長了我們在 2021 年看到的購買狂潮

Crypto lending markets peaked in 2021-2022 amidst a backdrop of low interest rates and insatiable risk appetite. For context, Genesis’ loan book peaked in Q1 2022 at ~$15B after surging 62% year-over-year (total loan originations peaked at $50B the quarter before).

在低利率和無法滿足的風險偏好的背景下，加密貨幣借貸市場在 2021 年至 2022 年達到頂峰。就背景而言，Genesis 的貸款帳簿在同比飆升 62% 後，於 2022 年第一季達到約 $15B 的峰值（貸款總額在上一季達到 $50B 的峰值）。

However, the collapse of many key institutional lenders (e.g. BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager, Genesis) hampered the speculative demand these same lenders helped fuel

然而，許多主要機構貸款機構（例如 BlockFi、Celsius、Voyager、Genesis）的倒閉阻礙了這些貸款機構推動的投機需求

Though we’ve started to see signs of a recovery, with new entrants like Coinbase’s institutional financing business, this area remains tepid compared to just a few years ago. In addition, today’s higher rate environment offers less incentive to move money on-chain into a choppy market, especially when the alternative is getting paid 5% on your cash or stablecoin holdings to wait and see

儘管隨著 Coinbase 機構融資業務等新進業者的出現，我們已經開始看到復甦的跡象，但與幾年前相比，該領域仍然不溫不火。此外，當今較高的利率環境不太鼓勵將鏈上資金轉移到動蕩的市場，尤其是當您的現金或穩定幣持有量獲得 5% 的報酬以觀望時

As the almighty Fed starts to cut rates – the market unanimously expects this to begin in the second half of 2024 – we’d expect to see risk sentiment and credit conditions improve as the risk-reward of bringing capital on-chain turns more favorable. Lower rates can also reignite growth in total stablecoin market cap, which is a decent proxy for rising demand as on-chain activity picks up.

隨著強大的聯準會開始降息（市場一致預計降息將於 2024 年下半年開始），我們預計風險情緒和信貸狀況將有所改善，因為將資本引入鏈上的風險回報將變得更加有利。較低的利率還可以重新點燃穩定幣總市值的成長，隨著鏈上活動的增加，這是需求成長的一個不錯的指標。

This could light a fire under demand that the crypto market desperately needs right now. Whether or not this will be the spark that ignites the “Everything Rally” many are hoping for though remains to be seen.

這可能會點燃加密貨幣市場目前迫切需要的需求。這是否會成為許多人所希望的「一切集會」的火花還有待觀察。