窄幅繁荣：当前周期代币供需不匹配

凯文·凯利 (Kevin Kelly) 和杰森·帕古拉托斯 (Jason Pagoulatos) 表示，虽然 BTC 和以太坊在去年强劲复苏，但市场的其他大部分仍在迎头赶上

This year has been a tale of two markets. On the one hand, BTC and ETH have staged a remarkable comeback, rallying 130% and 100%, respectively, over the last 12 months. But while the majors have been making new highs, much of the rest of the market has yet to join the party.

今年是两个市场的故事。一方面，BTC 和 ETH 出现了惊人的反弹，在过去 12 个月内分别上涨了 130% 和 100%。不过，尽管主要股票不断创出新高，但市场上的其他大部分股票尚未加入这一行列。

aggregate crypto market cap rose by 50% year-over-year, largely driven by a wave of new tokens, particularly memecoins, being launched at an unprecedented rate

加密货币总市值同比增长 50%，主要是由一波新代币（尤其是 memecoin）以前所未有的速度推出推动的

At the same time, we’ve seen a growing number of token unlocks from large protocols and dApps start to flood the market, as vesting dates come due from the wave of VC investments a couple years ago

与此同时，我们看到越来越多的大型协议和 dApp 的代币解锁开始涌入市场，因为几年前的风险投资浪潮已经确定了行权日期

Meanwhile, we’ve seen a 50% year-over-year increase in the number of $1 billion market cap coins. More tokens at higher valuations require more capital to support their prices

与此同时，我们发现市值 10 亿美元的代币数量同比增长了 50%。更多估值更高的代币需要更多资金来支撑其价格

This narrow boom has been a key talking point among our team throughout the year. The consensus used to be that a rising BTC price resulted in a trickle-down wealth effect for ETH, and eventually would spillover into the long tail of “altcoins” – an endearing term commonly used to describe all the other crypto assets outside the Big Two “majors.” We saw this dynamic play out last cycle. When BTC and ETH were up, so was everything else.

这种狭窄的繁荣一直是我们团队全年的一个关键话题。过去的共识是，BTC 价格上涨导致 ETH 产生涓滴财富效应，并最终溢出到“山寨币”的长尾——这是一个可爱的术语，通常用来描述两大巨头之外的所有其他加密资产“专业。”我们在上个周期看到了这种动态的发挥。当 BTC 和 ETH 上涨时，其他一切也上涨。

This time around, the majors feel more disconnected than ever from the rest of the market, especially BTC. Despite its ~130% rise over the last 12 months, we haven’t seen the “Everything Rally” many were anticipating by now. Sure, there have been small pockets of outperformance – Solana, AI, memecoins – but a majority of the crypto market has largely underperformed.

这一次，各大巨头感觉与市场其他部分（尤其是比特币）的脱节比以往任何时候都更加严重。尽管过去 12 个月上涨了约 130%，但我们目前还没有看到许多人期待的“一切上涨”。当然，也有一小部分表现出色——Solana、人工智能、模因币——但大多数加密货币市场的表现基本上都表现不佳。

So what gives? How can BTC and ETH be rallying so strongly, yet the rest of the market feels disconnected? To answer this question, we need to understand the tale of the tape this cycle: Dispersion.

那么什么给出呢？ BTC 和 ETH 为何反弹如此强劲，而市场其他部分却感觉脱节？要回答这个问题，我们需要了解本周期磁带的故事：分散。

All markets are simply a function of supply and demand. Crypto markets have grown considerably over the last several years, but so too has the aggregate supply of new tokens, and the crypto market is currently suffering from a substantial supply-side imbalance.

所有市场都只是供给和需求的函数。过去几年，加密货币市场大幅增长，但新代币的总供应量也随之增长，而加密货币市场目前正遭受严重的供给侧失衡。

Let’s break down the key drivers of this imbalance:

让我们来分析一下造成这种不平衡的关键因素：

The rise of DIY token launchpads (like pump.fun) has sparked a surge in new tokens being launched, most of them memecoins. For example, we saw 200 new tokens launch on BNB Chain in January alone

DIY 代币启动板（如 Pump.fun）的兴起引发了新代币的推出激增，其中大多数是模因币。例如，仅一月份我们就看到 BNB 链上推出了 200 个新代币

Another major difference compared to last cycle is the lackluster growth in crypto credit and lending, which helped fuel the buying frenzy we saw in 2021

与上一个周期相比的另一个主要区别是加密货币信贷和贷款的增长乏力，这助长了我们在 2021 年看到的购买狂潮

Crypto lending markets peaked in 2021-2022 amidst a backdrop of low interest rates and insatiable risk appetite. For context, Genesis’ loan book peaked in Q1 2022 at ~$15B after surging 62% year-over-year (total loan originations peaked at $50B the quarter before).

在低利率和无法满足的风险偏好的背景下，加密货币借贷市场在 2021 年至 2022 年达到顶峰。就背景而言，Genesis 的贷款账簿在同比飙升 62% 后，于 2022 年第一季度达到约 $15B 的峰值（贷款总额在上一季度达到 $50B 的峰值）。

However, the collapse of many key institutional lenders (e.g. BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager, Genesis) hampered the speculative demand these same lenders helped fuel

然而，许多主要机构贷款机构（例如 BlockFi、Celsius、Voyager、Genesis）的倒闭阻碍了这些贷款机构推动的投机需求

Though we’ve started to see signs of a recovery, with new entrants like Coinbase’s institutional financing business, this area remains tepid compared to just a few years ago. In addition, today’s higher rate environment offers less incentive to move money on-chain into a choppy market, especially when the alternative is getting paid 5% on your cash or stablecoin holdings to wait and see

尽管随着 Coinbase 机构融资业务等新进入者的出现，我们已经开始看到复苏的迹象，但与几年前相比，该领域仍然不温不火。此外，当今较高的利率环境不太鼓励将链上资金转移到动荡的市场，尤其是当您的现金或稳定币持有量获得 5% 的报酬以观望时

As the almighty Fed starts to cut rates – the market unanimously expects this to begin in the second half of 2024 – we’d expect to see risk sentiment and credit conditions improve as the risk-reward of bringing capital on-chain turns more favorable. Lower rates can also reignite growth in total stablecoin market cap, which is a decent proxy for rising demand as on-chain activity picks up.

随着强大的美联储开始降息（市场一致预计降息将于 2024 年下半年开始），我们预计风险情绪和信贷状况将有所改善，因为将资本引入链上的风险回报将变得更加有利。较低的利率还可以重新点燃稳定币总市值的增长，随着链上活动的增加，这是需求增长的一个不错的指标。

This could light a fire under demand that the crypto market desperately needs right now. Whether or not this will be the spark that ignites the “Everything Rally” many are hoping for though remains to be seen.

这可能会点燃加密货币市场目前迫切需要的需求。这是否会成为许多人所希望的“一切集会”的火花还有待观察。