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對這現象的看法五花八門,從瘋狂的好到純粹的瘋狂。這聽起來像是一家價值投資者公司的異端邪說,但這種資本配置策略是完全理性的,MSTR 股東支持更多的資本配置策略是正確的。

MicroStrategy (MSTR) and bitcoin have been making headlines lately, and for good reason. After a more than 500% gain in its shares this year, MSTR has been selling stock and convertible securities to fund purchases of bitcoin, which recently topped $100,000 for the first time. And viewpoints on this phenomenon are all over the map, ranging from crazy good to just plain crazy.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) 和比特幣最近成為頭條新聞,這是有充分理由的。今年股價上漲超過 500% 後,MSTR 一直在出售股票和可轉換證券,為購買比特幣提供資金,最近比特幣價格首次突破 10 萬美元。對這現象的看法五花八門,從瘋狂的好到簡直是瘋狂。
This may sound like heresy coming from a firm of value investors, but this capital allocation strategy is entirely rational, and MSTR shareholders are right to root for more. Yep, you heard me correctly. Share issuances can be useful when done properly.
這聽起來像是一家價值投資者公司的異端邪說,但這種資本配置策略是完全理性的,MSTR 股東支持更多的資本配置策略是正確的。是的,你沒聽錯。如果做得正確,股票發行會很有用。
We are value investors at Harris | Oakmark, so we see far more share repurchase than issuance from the companies we own, but one is not necessarily better than the other. Share repurchases and issuances are two sides of the same coin, if you will, and both can be done rationally.
我們是哈里斯的價值投資者 | Oakmark,因此我們看到我們擁有的公司回購的股票遠遠多於發行的股票,但其中一個不一定比另一個更好。如果你願意的話,股票回購和發行是同一枚硬幣的兩面,兩者都可以理性地進行。
MSTR’s primary asset is its bitcoin position, which as of December 1, 2024, totaled 402,100. At a then price of $96,400, this stake has a value of $38.8B or $143.43 per fully diluted share. MSTR’s share price before the open on December 2, 2024 was $383.25, which put the premium to bitcoin at over two times.
MSTR 的主要資產是比特幣頭寸,截至 2024 年 12 月 1 日,比特幣頭寸總計 402,100 個。以當時的價格 96,400 美元計算,該股權的價值為 38.8B 美元,即每股完全稀釋後的股票價值 143.43 美元。 2024 年 12 月 2 日開盤前,MSTR 的股價為 383.25 美元,比比特幣溢價兩倍多。
I want to emphasize: we do not have an opinion on the value of bitcoin or MSTR, but we do appreciate the concept of using a currency (MSTR stock) valued at twice the underlying asset value (bitcoin) to buy more of that very asset at market prices. Issuing stock in this way reduces the premium MSTR shareholders are paying to own bitcoin. This is a good thing, though the benefit is ultimately limited to minimizing the premium at which MSTR shares trade relative to its bitcoin holdings.
我想強調的是:我們對比特幣或 MSTR 的價值沒有意見,但我們確實欣賞使用價值兩倍於基礎資產價值(比特幣)的貨幣(MSTR 股票)來購買更多該資產的概念按市場價格。以這種方式發行股票降低了 MSTR 股東為擁有比特幣而支付的溢價。這是一件好事,儘管好處最終僅限於最大限度地降低 MSTR 股票相對於其持有的比特幣交易的溢價。
In the same way, rational issuers of stock are using an attractive currency relative to what they are buying with the proceeds. This could include issuing overvalued stock to buy fairly valued assets or issuing undervalued stock to buy a more significantly undervalued asset.
同樣,理性的股票發行人會使用相對於他們用收益購買的貨幣有吸引力的貨幣。這可能包括發行被高估的股票來購買公平估值的資產,或發行被低估的股票來購買被嚴重低估的資產。
With share repurchase, a company buys its stock with cash. Rational repurchasers view cash as an attractive currency to buy in their stock because the shares are selling at a discount to fair value. That discount widens even more when shares are repurchased and will continue to widen if share repurchases continue at a discount to fair value. Think of this as an intelligent and relatively low risk way to leverage future returns to owners who patiently wait for the price-value gap to close.
透過股票回購,公司用現金購買其股票。理性回購者將現金視為購買股票的有吸引力的貨幣,因為股票的售價低於公允價值。當股票被回購時,這種折價會進一步擴大,如果股票回購繼續以公允價值的折價進行,這種折價將繼續擴大。將此視為一種明智且風險相對較低的方式,可以為耐心等待價格與價值差距縮小的業主提供未來回報。
We are value investors at Harris | Oakmark, which means we own companies we believe to be selling below their true fair value. The undervalued share prices make using stock for currency quite expensive. As a result, we see far more share repurchase than issuance from the companies we own.
我們是哈里斯的價值投資者 | Oakmark,這意味著我們擁有我們認為其出售價格低於其真實公允價值的公司。被低估的股價使得用股票換取貨幣變得相當昂貴。因此,我們看到我們所擁有的公司回購的股票遠遠多於發行的股票。
For instance, 88% of the companies held in our U.S. large-cap value strategies* have repurchased stock over the last 12 months. On a weighted basis, our holdings have bought back nearly 4% of their market cap over the last 12 months, approximately twice the rate of the weighted S&P 500. On average, our top 10 repurchasers have bought back just over 10% of their shares over the last 12 months and our largest single repurchaser, General Motors (GM), has bought back over 24% of its average market cap. This is unsurprising to us. We look to partner with rational, shareholder-friendly management teams of undervalued companies. Experiencing twice the rate of repurchase of the broader index is evidence that we are on the right track.
例如,在我們的美國大盤價值策略*中持有的公司中有 88% 在過去 12 個月內回購了股票。在加權基礎上,我們的持股在過去12 個月裡回購了近4% 的市值,大約是加權標準普爾500 指數的兩倍。略高於10% 的股票在過去 12 個月中,我們最大的單一回購方通用汽車 (GM) 回購了其平均市值的 24% 以上。這對我們來說並不奇怪。我們希望與價值被低估的公司的理性、對股東友善的管理團隊合作。回購率是更廣泛指數的兩倍,證明我們走在正確的軌道上。
Hopefully when you read of companies repurchasing or issuing stock going forward, you will remember they are two sides of the same coin. Consider the difference between the value of the currency used and the asset purchased before casting judgment because this ultimately determines the impact on the value of your investment.
希望當您讀到公司未來回購或發行股票時,您會記住它們是同一枚硬幣的兩面。在做出判斷之前,請考慮所使用的貨幣的價值與購買的資產之間的差異,因為這最終決定了對您的投資價值的影響。
*As of December 9, 2024. Applies to U.S. retail mutual funds and institutional strategies.
*截至 2024 年 12 月 9 日。
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